We are into the second week at the Australian Open and the Third Round has proved to be very productive for the Tennis Picks.
A strong showing on Day 6 has put the Tennis Picks in a strong position to open 2023 and I am looking to keep the momentum going at the start of the Fourth Round.
Karen Khachanov - 1.5 sets v Yoshihito Nishioka: A place in the Quarter Finals of the tournament is on the line when Yoshihito Nishioka and Karen Khachanov meet on Day 7 at the Australian Open and this could be a pretty good match. The latter is more experienced at dealing with the emotions of playing in the second week of a Grand Slam, but Yoshihito Nishioka has been playing really well this week and holds a win over Karen Khachanov from their meeting in Washington last August.
The higher Ranked player will point to the comfortable win over Nishioka at this tournament, but that was a match played four years ago in the Second Round and the Japanese player is improve since then.
Regardless of that improvement, the numbers have stayed pretty steady on the hard courts and I do think he is going to have to raise his level in this match. Wins over three players that are not Ranked above Number 65 in the World means Yoshihito Nishioka may not be as battle tested as Karen Khachanov who upset Frances Tiafoe in four sets in the Third Round.
He is another steady player on the Tour, but Karen Khachanov has arguably underachieved on the hard courts considering the obvious talent he has. The serve is a huge weapon for him, but Karen Khachanov has improvement to make on the return of serve if he is going to push up the World Rankings and return to the top ten.
You have to believe Karen Khachanov is going to have better returning numbers in this match compared with his last two when he was winning around 37% of points played on the opponent's serve. That is a mark that is about where Khachanov operates each season, but Yoshihito Nishioka is not likely to blow anyone off the court behind his serve and that will be encouraging for the higher Ranked player.
Yoshihito Nishioka has a return of serve that can be very productive and he did put Karen Khachanov under pressure in the win when they met in Washington. However, it is Khachanov who has tended to find the breaks of serve when the opportunities are presented to him and I think he will be able to win this Fourth Round match in three or four sets.
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 3.5 games v Jannik Sinner: Rafael Nadal and Daniil Medvedev are out, while Novak Djokovic is still having hamstring troubles so there may be an opportunity for a new Grand Slam winner at the end of this Australian Open.
The winner of this Fourth Round match is certainly going to feel they are perhaps deserving of being installed as the favourite to win the event and both Stefanos Tsitsipas and Jannik Sinner have opened up 2023 in very strong form. Their performances in Melbourne have been really strong too, although Sinner did need to fight back from two sets down to see off Marton Fucsovics in the Third Round.
Even though he was pushed, Jannik Sinner eased through the final three sets that day and he has played really well. However, Stefanos Tsitsipas is unbeaten in 2023 and that will only give him more confidence, especially in the surroundings in Melbourne where a big Greek community have been very happy to come out and support Tsitsipas.
The serve is the big shot for Stefanos Tsitsipas and he will have to serve well in order to keep on top of Jannik Sinner.
That has been the case between these players in the past with Stefanos Tsitsipas winning four of the five professional matches, including the last three in a row. That includes a straight sets win over Jannik Sinner here at the Australian Open twelve months ago and Stefanos Tsitsipas has not dropped a set in any of the four victories over this opponent.
It should be noted that the majority of those matches have been played on the clay courts, a surface that Stefanos Tsitsipas has been very comfortable on. The one win on a hard court was here at the Australian Open and it was a day in which Tsitsipas was able to dominate and dictate behind the serve and he can do that in this Fourth Round match, despite the obvious improvement made by Jannik Sinner over the last year.
In saying that, Jannik Sinner does not have a top ten win on the hard courts in that time, while Stefanos Tsitsipas is 4-5 (three losses to Novak Djokovic).
I have said before that Stefanos Tsitsipas can be tough to trust in big matches with a return game that has plenty of room for improvement, but the Sinner serve can be vulnerable at times. He has held just 65% of his service games against top ten players in the last twelve months and that mark is only improved to 71% in his career against the elite on the ATP Tour.
This is going to be a really good match, but I think Stefanos Tsitsipas does enough to win the match and can cover this handicap mark.
MY PICKS: Karen Khachanov - 1.5 Sets @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Iga Swiatek - 4.5 Games @ 1.95 Coral (2 Units)
Coco Gauff - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Victoria Azarenka - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 30-18, + 15.56 Units (96 Units Staked, + 16.21% Yield)
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