The Fourth Round and Quarter Final Tennis Picks were pretty disappointing as far as I am concerned, although the key was that I did not have one of those truly bad days to knock off the early positive numbers produced.
That has been really important and ensured the perfect 4-0 run in the Semi Final selections has meant a solid winning effort at the Australian Open.
Even with that in mind, I am looking to keep the momentum going with my Tennis Pick from the women's Final on Saturday, one that features the two best players in the tournament by some distance. Picking a winner looks a tough challenge with so many external factors that could impact the two, namely nerves and tension at key moments, but I think it could be a good Final for the fans to enjoy and I am not anticipating a straight-forward win for either.
My Pick from the men's Final should be posted in the hour after the women's Final is concluded.
Elena Rybakina-Aryna Sabalenka over 22.5 games: The two best players at the Australian Open, in the women's draw, are meeting in the Final on Saturday and I do think this could be a really fun watch.
Some people have suggested that tennis matches tend to be 'too long', but I am not sure how many rallies are going to be played by Elena Rybakina and Aryna Sabalenka. Both are aggressive, first strike players who have massive serves that can set up the points right from the off, while they will also be well aware that the other is likely going to take some big swings with every second serve that will be seen.
Tension in the arm and the magnitude of the situation can lead to a lot of mistakes from players who want to swing freely. There will also be a lot of pressure to up the first serve percentage with Elena Rybakina getting 55% of first serves in play compared with 58% for Aryna Sabalenka, a number that may not seem like much between them, but one that may give the higher Ranked player a slight edge.
Of course Elena Rybakina has a real mental edge of having won a Grand Slam title before, even if she feels she is not a Champion after the Wimbledon Ranking points were scrubbed last year. That would have meant going into the next two Grand Slams as a top ten player and perhaps a higher profile than being bunted out into one of the outside courts to open her tournament in Melbourne.
The Kazakhstan player is not one to let something like that bother her and the way she has cut a pathway through the draw underlines the point.
However, the raw numbers at this tournament suggest the layers have got the right favourite for this Final in Aryna Sabalenka. Getting more first serves in play is obviously huge, but Sabalenka has also has slight edges in terms of points won behind the second serve and on the return, even if the Elena Rybakina first serve feels the best shot on the court.
Aryna Sabalenka has also won all three previous matches against Elena Rybakina- all three have needed a deciding set with one or two errors capitalised on by the opponent.
I very much feel that could be the case again in the women's Final at the Australian Open.
Both players should feel they can contain the threat the opponent brings by producing big first serves, but I also think aggressive returns will see some swings in momentum. You can't really account for how players will deal with nerves of the occasion, but I do think the chance of being able to settle down with big serving will help and I think they are very closely matched, which could produce a tight and competitive Final.
There is a chance that just two sets will be needed to clear the total games mark set for the Final- I am noted that the money has come in for Elena Rybakina to narrow the odds, but picking a winner is difficult with my narrow edge going with Aryna Sabalenka, my pre-tournament selection to win the opening Grand Slam of 2023.
However, going over the total games line looks the play here considering how close their previous matches have been and I do think a decider might be needed.
Of course you cannot discount the chances of nerves overwhelming one of the players on the day- that is more likely to be on Aryna Sabalenka's side of the court now that Elena Rybakina has won a Grand Slam title before. Those nerves can quickly see a match run away from a player, but I think the serving capabilities of both and the performance level at the Australian Open should mean a close, competitive match is produced.
MY PICK: Elena Rybakina-Aryna Sabalenka Over 22.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 43-30, + 14.08 Units (142 Units Staked, + 9.92% Yield)
No comments:
Post a Comment