The disruption of Day 2 and a busy day in general for me has meant this is going to be a shorter thread than the others this week.
With the Australian Open well underway, the remaining Second Round matches will be completed on Day 4 as some players are forced to play on back to back days at a Grand Slam event. That is far from ideal, although the big names have made their way through as scheduled thanks to the privilege of being scheduled to play on one of the show courts, which means the roof will allow matches to be played on time even when conditions for others make that impossible.
Caroline Garcia - 3.5 games v Leylah Fernandez: For a long time we have been waiting to see Caroline Garcia really fulfil the obvious potential she had and a brave decision was made by the Frenchwoman to tell of struggles off the court that had perhaps held her back. She looks to be in a much better place physically and emotionally right now and winning the WTA Finals should propel Caroline Garcia forward.
After playing some solid tennis in preparation for the opening Grand Slam of the 2023 season, Caroline Garcia was a comfortable winner over a young Canadian in the First Round. In the Second Round she faces a younger Canadian than Katherine Sebov, but one who demands even greater respect considering Leylah Fernandez is a former US Open Finalist.
Matching that incredible two weeks and finding the consistency on the Tour has been the challenge for Leylah Fernandez over the last sixteen months, but it has been tough. She did reach a career high World Ranking last August, but Leylah Fernandez has now dipped back down to World Number 40 and both young Finalists from the US Open in 2021 have struggled to back up that impressive tournament showing.
Much like her opponent, Leylah Fernandez was able to beat a compatriot of Caroline Garcia in the First Round and the manner of the victory over Alize Cornet is impressive. However, you cannot ignore the numbers that say Leylah Fernandez is still a fairly average hard court player and one that has a 5-7 record against top 50 Ranked players over the last twelve months on this surface.
You have to accept that Fernandez is someone who can get very hot within a tournament and that will see her string the wins together, but Caroline Garcia has to feel her serve can keep the younger player under control.
Leylah Fernandez has not had a top 20 win on the hard courts since Indian Wells in October 2021 and over the last twelve months she is 0-4 in those matches and largely been well beaten. In fact the Canadian has won a single set out of the nine played.
Caroline Garcia looks like a player that could challenge for a maiden Grand Slam in 2023, but I have to accept that her numbers have not been as impressive as they perhaps should have been. One of the areas of clear improvement has to be on the return of serve and Garcia has won fewer than 40% of return points played on the hard courts over the last twelve months, and that is a mark that is not overcome even when accounting for opponents outside of the top 20 in the World Rankings.
It also makes it hard to really trust her when it comes to covering spreads like this one, but I do think Carolina Garcia is playing at a superior level to Leylah Fernandez and has been for a number of months now.
The higher Ranked player should be helped by the pressure she can exert through her serving as Leylah Fernandez has won just 33% of return points played against top 20 Ranked players on the hard courts over the last twelve months. With the Garcia serve operating as it is right now, I think the World Number 4 can win and cover here.
MY PICKS: Caroline Garcia - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ekaterina Alexandrova - 3.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Linda Fruhvirtova - 2.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Ons Jabeur - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Nicolas Jarry @ 2.20 Bet365 (2 Units)
Tommy Paul - 1.5 Sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Thanasi Kokkinakis - 1.5 Sets @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Andrey Rublev - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Coral (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 13-7, + 6.98 Units (40 Units Staked, + 17.45% Yield)
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