Day 7 proved to be a disappointment, but the Fourth Round action continues at the Australian Open and I am looking for a much better day all around.
Holger Rune v Andrey Rublev: With the big names of the last generation finally looking like they are ready to bow out as far as big Grand Slam titles are concerned, a match like this Fourth Round one could become common place at the business end of the biggest tournaments for years to come.
Novak Djokovic is still around and a genuine favourite to win any tournament he enters, but Rafael Nadal looks to have finally had his injuries catch up with him, while Andy Murray is still battling hard to find the consistency to get back closer to the top 20 in the World Rankings. Roger Federer officially left the scene last year, but had not played since Wimbledon 2021 anyway, and so the door has been opened for the likes of Andrey Rublev and Holger Rune.
It feels a little early to have two top ten Ranked players meeting at a Grand Slam, but the winner of this match is going to feel really confident about their chances in the bottom half of the draw. As mentioned, Djokovic is around, but he is not fully healthy and Holger Rune in particularly will be keen for that Quarter Final match at a Grand Slam having beaten the former World Number 1 in the Final of the Paris Masters at the back end of last season.
The 19 year old has made rapid progress on the ATP Tour and is already fulfilling the big hopes most had around him. An early loss in Adelaide would have stung, but Holger Rune is playing at a very comfortable level in winning all three matches at the Australian Open. His serve will only improve as he matures, but Rune is holding 86% of his games played this year and has dropped serve just four times in the tournament, while the youngster is already a very strong return player and has been able to really exert himself on this side of his tennis.
This is a big test for Holger Rune as he takes on an experienced Andrey Rublev who had a few doubts entering the Australian Open following back to back losses to open 2023. The World Number 6 is a pretty honest guy and he has allowed people to peek into his inner thoughts after those defeats, but Andrey Rublev has looked assured in the Australian Open.
He will need to serve well to win a match like this one, and Andrey Rublev does have the stronger numbers on the serve compared with Holger Rune from the small sample of 2023.
However, over the last twelve months we have seen Holger Rune have more success on the hard courts against the higher Ranked players compared with Andrey Rublev. There isn't much in the raw numbers, but Rune has the momentum of winning eight of his last nine matches against top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts, and six of those wins have been against top 10 Ranked players.
Andrey Rublev has won three of his last nine on this surface against top 20 Ranked players and that difference could be key on the day.
These two players also met in Paris and it was Holger Rune who came away with a straight sets win, although it was a closely fought match, much like this one should be.
The numbers were very, very close that day, but it was Holger Rune who played the biggest points the most efficiently and I do think that will give him a slight mental edge in this big Fourth Round match. The layers don't see much between them and I would not be surprised if all five sets and a Super Tie-Breaker were needed, but I do narrowly lean to the younger player and the momentum he has built on the Tour over the last four months to come away with a place in the Quarter Final.
Aryna Sabalenka - 1.5 games v Belinda Bencic: Neither of these players have won a Grand Slam title before, but both Aryna Sabalenka and Belinda Bencic have been close before and so a lack of experience of winning Majors is not going to be an excuse for them this week. The top two Seeds in the women's draw are out before the Quarter Final Round and the form of both Sabalenka and Bencic means the winner is likely going to be right up front with the favourites to win the title next Saturday.
That does put some pressure on the match, even if the they have won fifteen matches combined in 2023 with just one loss that Belinda Bencic suffered to Iga Swiatek in a warm up event. That has not dented her belief though and Bencic has run through the first three Rounds with very little threat against her, although the Swiss star will know full well that the level goes up significantly in the Fourth Round.
None of the opponents beaten by Belinda Bencic have been Ranked inside the top 60 this week and that is something that has to be considered. However, I don't think Bencic is undercooked having won a title last week where she beat two top 10 Ranked players in Adelaide and over the last twelve months this has been a player that has played well in the top 20 match ups on the hard courts.
Her numbers and record is superior to the one that Aryna Sabalenka possesses against top 20 Ranked players on this surface, but the former World Number 2 looks to be trending in the right direction. She has won all eight matches played in 2023 and this after reaching the Final of the end of year WTA Finals in November, while Aryna Sabalenka is yet to drop a set this season.
Much like her opponent, Aryna Sabalenka has made light work of her opponents in Melbourne, although she will have the confidence of saying two of those wins have occurred against top 51 Ranked players. It means she has been dismissing a higher class of opponent and I think that will give Aryna Sabalenka the edge in this match.
Both of these players will feel they have room for improvement on the return of serve overall, but they are playing well on this side of their tennis and both have solid serves that can offer up cheap points.
My feeling is that Aryna Sabalenka possesses the bigger weapon on the serve and a few more 'easier' points could make all the difference in what should be a close, competitive match. They have split two previous matches, both on the hard courts, but Aryna Sabalenka has looked the stronger player in both of those and I think she will find a way to put herself in a position to win and cover on Day 8 at the opening Grand Slam of the season.
This has the potential to be the match of the day and I would be surprised if we did not see some swings in momentum.
Ultimately I think the 'bigger' Aryna Sabalenka games makes the difference and she can move through to another Grand Slam Quarter Final at the expense of Belinda Bencic.
MY PICKS: Holger Rune @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Ben Shelton @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Aryna Sabalenka - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Donna Vekic - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 31-22, + 9.16 Units (106 Units Staked, + 8.64% Yield)
No comments:
Post a Comment