It has been one of those weeks where life takes over and that means this thread is simply focusing on NFL Picks from the four Divisional Round games in the PlayOffs.
I think it could be a favourites weekend as you will be able to read below.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: One of the biggest PlayOff comebacks has helped the Jacksonville Jaguars (10-8) reach the Divisional Round of the post-season. Backing that up will be the challenge for Trevor Lawrence and the rest of the team after the young Quarter Back recovered from a horrendous start against the Los Angeles Chargers in the Super Wild Card game last week.
It was Trevor Lawrence who led the recovery, but the four Interceptions thrown in the first half left the Jaguars chasing the game against the Chargers.
Doing that against the Number 1 Seed in the AFC would be a much taller mountain to climb for the Jacksonville Jaguars as they prepare to visit the Kansas City Chiefs (14-3), a team who have had two weeks to prepare for this game. Everyone knows how strong Andy Reid has been as a Head Coach with time to set his team up for a game and the Kansas City Chiefs are very experienced in the PlayOffs.
This should mean any lead is managed better than the Los Angeles Chargers managed in the Super Wild Card Round and the Kansas City Chiefs piled up some huge numbers in a double digit win over the Jacksonville Jaguars in the regular season.
They have nor provided much bulletin board material despite the big win over the Jaguars and Patrick Mahomes believes he is facing a much stronger team than the one he carved up before. However, I do think Mahomes is playing at a strong level and his Offensive unit have plenty of weapons even though they moved Tyreek Hill in the last off-season.
Some of the explosiveness has gone, but there are still some fast Receiving options here, while Travis Kelce could have a really strong game. The Chiefs are capable of establishing the run, but Head Coach Andy Reid seems to get board of that game plan and that should mean another gram watching Patrick Mahomes slinging the ball around the field.
It certainly helps that Patrick Mahomes is capable of moving around in the pocket to buy himself time when pressure has come, while the Offensive Line have also played really well. I think we will see the Quarter Back finding his skill players down the field and the spread is very going to come down to whether the Jaguars can pick themselves from an emotional win and go again.
This is never easy, especially not against a rested Number 1 Seed, but I do think Trevor Lawrence will have some success.
The Quarter Back could get some support from Travis Etienne running the ball and that will open things up for Lawrence as he looks to secure another upset in the PlayOffs. Establishing the run will also slow down the Kansas City pass rush and offer Trevor Lawrence the chance to use play-action to get into a position to take his shots down the field.
You have to credit how both of these Defensive units have played down the stretch, but I do think Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs can pull away for another big PlayOff win.
They piled up huge numbers against the Jaguars in the regular season and won by double digits despite giving the ball away three times and also allowing Jacksonville to secure an onside kick.
Those extra possessions did not help the Jaguars stay with the Chiefs and I think a cleaner effort from Kansas City should put them in a position to avoid any backdoor cover.
I don't think Trevor Lawrence will begin this game as poorly as he did the Super Wild Card Round game, and I do think the Jaguars are fun to watch on this side of the ball. The Kansas City Chiefs have not really been a team that have been successful covering the spreads in each passing week, but they look capable of finding the plays to do that here.
New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: Two wins in the regular season has given the Philadelphia Eagles (14-3) the mental edge over their NFC East rivals the New York Giants (10-7-1). Beating any team three times in a single season is tough, but the rested Number 1 Seed in the NFC are the clear favourites to beat this rival once again.
The two week break for the Philadelphia Eagles looks to have come at a good time and they look so much healthier than they did before Week 18. Jalen Hurts is the obvious name when it comes to players with improved health, but the return of Lane Johnson is huge for the Offensive Line and I do think the Eagles will come with a real statement to make.
They will have to respect the New York Giants who deservedly upset the Minnesota Vikings in the Super Wild Card Round, although both of those teams are not as good as hyped up. New York are playing well, but this is a significant step up in level of competition and they were pretty well beaten when hosting the Eagles in the regular season.
You cannot read too much into the Week 18 game as the Giants were resting starters and the Eagles looked to take their foot off the gas when holding a big lead.
With the team looking strong, Philadelphia should be able to move the ball against the Giants Defensive unit, despite the improvement made by the latter. Having Jalen Hurts back at Quarter Back makes the rushing attack that much more effective for the Eagles and I do think they will be able to keep the team in third and manageable spots throughout this game.
Receivers like AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith give Jalen Hurts tremendous players to throw to and Dallas Goedert is another threat- with the Quarter Back capable of running out of the RPO, the Eagles should have the balance to keep the chains moving and having the Giants second guessing what to expect.
That puts all the pressure on the Offensive unit to try and keep the New York Giants competitive and Daniel Jones is coming off an appearance that is likely going to make him a very rich player in the years ahead. He does have a healthy Saquon Barkley behind him, but there is no doubt that the Giants are facing a much more confident Defensive team than the one they beat in Minnesota.
Perhaps New York will try to run the ball through Jones and Barkley, but this Eagles Defensive Line has been refortified and I think they will want to test the Quarter Back and his makeshift Receivers and see if they can keep the Giants in this Divisional Round game.
Once again the Giants cannot expect Daniel Jones to have the passing lanes he had last week against the Minnesota Vikings and throwing against this Philadelphia Secondary from obvious passing positions or situations is very difficult. The Eagles produce a fierce pass rush and they have some top players in the Defensive Backs positions to back up the rushers up front by locking down the Receivers facing up against them.
Daniel Jones will make some plays, but the Eagles should have a bit too much overall on both sides of the ball and they can pull away for a win and a cover.
I have to acknowledge how well the Giants have played in Philadelphia in recent years and they are 5-1 against the spread in their last six visits. They could easily secure the backdoor cover if the Eagles begin playing prevent Defense late in the game, but I like the Number 1 Seed to make a statement and win this one by double digits.
The Eagles are rested and looking healthy as they bid for a Super Bowl run and I think they can open their post-season with a solid win in the Divisional Round before hosting the NFC Championship Game next week.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Buffalo Bills Pick: This is officially going to be the game most remember for the first between Joe Burrow and Josh Allen after the really emotional way the regular season game had to be curtailed. Damar Hamlin is on the long road to recovery after suffering on the field late in the season, but the Cincinnati Bengals (13-4) and Buffalo Bills (14-3) will be focusing on trying to reach the AFC Championship Game having won tighter than expected home games in the Super Wild Card Round last week.
This time the teams will be meeting Buffalo where snow could potentially be a factor on Sunday. Conditions are cold as expected, but it should not be too windy and I think both Quarter Backs will be confident that the passing game will be able to operate as they would like.
As we have come to expect in the post-season, the running attack is the key for any team and I think that is particularly important for both teams in what should be the best game of the weekend.
Opponents have tended to allow the Bills running lanes in a bid to quieten down the passing attack over the course of the season, but that has not really worked that effectively. Establishing the run opens things up for the pass and Josh Allen is a Quarter Back who is happy to take what the Defensive schemes give him and he is capable of getting the ball out of his hands quickly, or pick up First Downs with his legs.
The Bills should be able to run the ball against the Cincinnati Bengals, who are a middling run Defense, and they have players capable of breaking a big play or two on the ground. This should make things a little more comfortable for Josh Allen, especially as the Quarter Back has been a little more generous with his throws of late with key Interceptions leaving points on the board.
Josh Allen will also have a little more time in the pocket if his team are in third and manageable and that is also really important considering some of the pass protection breakdowns we have seen in recent games. Scrambling away from pressure will help, but third and manageable opens up the passing options and the Buffalo Bills should be able to move the ball through the air against this Cincinnati Secondary, especially with the skill players Buffalo have.
I expect Buffalo to have Offensive successes, but it may be a little more difficult for Joe Burrow and company. In the limited time on the field in their regular season game, Burrow and the Bengals were moving the ball pretty well, but injuries to the Offensive Line have decimated this unit and that is very difficult to overcome, regardless of how good your Quarter Back and skill players may be.
Once again the Bengals are going to be facing a Defensive Line that have clamped down on the run and forced teams to try and beat them through the air. It is unlikely that either Joe Mixon or Samaje Perine are able to have a lot of joy pounding the rock behind this makeshift Offensive Line and that could make things very dangerous for the Bengals.
This is also where the injuries on the Offensive Line means the depth of the Bengals is tested and being in third and long and hoping the pass protection holds up is going to be a huge challenge for Joe Burrow and the team. Von Miller may not be around, but the Bills still generate pressure up front and they have enough players on the Defensive Line that will feel they can break into the backfield past the second string Offensive Line players in front of them and put Joe Burrow under immense pressure.
An increasingly healthy Secondary is also capable of locking down Receivers with the pass rush getting to the Quarter Back and I think this could be the end of the line for Cincinnati.
No one will doubt this is a big line considering what we have seen from Joe Burrow in his time with LSU and Cincinnati, but the Offensive Line looks broken and that makes it very hard to imagine the Bengals having any consistent success. They don't have the same Offensive balance as the Buffalo Bills are likely to have and I think the home team will be able to win this by around a Touchdown mark.
The Bills have not been a very good home team to back of late, but the sharp money looks to be behind them and I will back Buffalo to reach the AFC Championship Game, which will either be hosted by the Bills or played on a neutral field if Kansas City win on Saturday.
Dallas Cowboys @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: For the first time in the NFL PlayOffs, we will have had a Monday Night Football game in Super Wild Card Round- the question we all have to find out the answer to is how will a team react to what is ultimately a short week between PlayOff games?
The Dallas Cowboys (13-5) are the team facing that situation as they head to the San Francisco 49ers (14-4) for this Divisional Round game on Sunday afternoon. Last season it was the 49ers who upset Dallas as the road underdog, but this time they are favoured at home and San Francisco benefit from having two days more preparation time than the Cowboys.
A win at Tampa Bay was impressive, but the Buccaneers have not performed well throughout the 2022 season and this is a significantly tougher test for the Dallas Cowboys. Now they have to face a 49ers team coming in off a blow out and one that has won eleven in a row since a Week 7 defeat to the Kansas City Chiefs.
Brock Purdy has come in and managed the Offensive unit well enough, although all the credit has to be given to Head Coach Kyle Shanahan who has made sure his young Quarter Back is being put in a very strong position on the field. The 49ers are not asking their rookie to throw into tight windows, but simply getting the ball out of Brock Purdy's hands as quickly as possibly and making sure the skill players are in space to pick up plenty of yards after the catch.
This is going to be the toughest Defensive unit that Brock Purdy has seen in his short time in the starting role at Quarter Back, but I do think the 49ers match up pretty well with the Cowboys overall. Christian McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell have been very good at establishing the run behind this strong San Francisco Offensive Line and I expect those two Running Backs to get plenty of touches in this one.
Out of the two, Christian McCaffrey also provides a threat leaking out of the backfield, while Deebo Samuel is another the 49ers will use to carry the ball as they use a lot of misdirection to keep Defensive Lines guessing.
Moving the ball this way should make it easier for Brock Purdy to get the ball out to his Wide Receivers and I do think the San Francisco 49ers will find a way to get things moving against a strong Dallas Defensive unit.
There should also be a confidence in the Dallas Offensive unit after Dak Prescott's huge game in Tampa Bay- the Quarter Back was rarely bothered after the first couple of series and Prescott will be looking to pick up from where he left off.
However, Dak Prescott and the passing game is really sparked by the ability of the Cowboys to run the ball and this is going to be the pressing concern for Dallas on Sunday. The Buccaneers Defensive Line is one that is in the middle of the pack when it comes to stopping the run, but there aren't many better than the 49ers and I do think they can find a way to clamp down on Ezekiel Elliot and Tony Pollard.
The latter is likely to be important as a safety blanket in the passing game, but Dak Prescott playing behind the chains is going to be a tough challenge for a Quarter Back who has been guilty of plenty of turnovers before the win over Tampa Bay in the Super Wild Card Round.
This will mean the Cowboys Offensive Line is going to be dealing with the huge amount of pressure that San Francisco can get up front, but Prescott has to be encouraged by one or two holes that have been evident in the 49ers Secondary. The problem is trying to exploit those from third and long situations and I think the game plan run by Dallas is going to make it difficult for them to have any consistent success and especially not on a short week.
Turnovers are going to be a huge part of any NFL game, but those are magnified in the PlayOffs and I do think Dak Prescott is likely to make more mistakes than Brock Purdy. The 49ers have been well coached and will put their Quarter Back in a stronger position overall and this should make the difference in the big game on Sunday.
San Francisco are 12-2 against the spread in their last fourteen home games, while the Dallas Cowboys are just 4-9 against the spread when playing on Sunday following a Monday Night Football outing.
Despite the win over Tampa Bay, I cannot ignore the fact that Dallas have not been as strong on the road and in outdoor conditions and I think it will lead to a late drive that sees San Francisco win and cover this line.
The Cowboys did beat San Francisco on the road when they last met in a game hosted by the 49ers in 2017, but that's not really going to be relevant to the players on Divisional Round Weekend in 2023.
A narrow win for the 49ers over Dallas last season in the PlayOffs is a game that could be on the mind of those involved on Sunday and I think a narrow San Francisco win and cover is most likely, possibly with a late Dak Prescott Interception making the difference on the day.
MY PICKS: Kansas City Chiefs - 9 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Philadelphia Eagles - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Buffalo Bills - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
San Francisco 49ers - 4 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
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