It is quite amazing how quickly time can fly- it feels like the 2022 NFL season only began yesterday, yet eighteen weeks later we have reached the PlayOffs.
Some of the favourites from pre-season have made their way into the PlayOffs as expected, but the NFL continues to show off the parity they are most proud of with a number of teams making the post-season that did not do so last season.
The Super Wild Card Round has been a lot of fun since its introduction and this season we even have a Monday Night Football PlayOff game for the first time. I am not sure that is going to be good news for the winner of the Tampa Bay-Dallas game with the winner most likely heading to the City of Brotherly Love to take on the rested Philadelphia Eagles in the Divisional Round, but it is something that the winner will have to deal with if that is the outcome.
The Monday Night selection will be added to this thread on Saturday.
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: The NFC West has sent two teams to the PlayOffs and the San Francisco 49ers (13-4) will be given the opportunity to host this Super Wild Card Round game against the Seattle Seahawks (9-8) courtesy of being Divisional Winners. Despite the injuries, especially at the Quarter Back position, the 49ers have used the 'next man up' mantra to great effect and they are considered a real candidate to win the Super Bowl.
That is a long shot for the Seattle Seahawks who have overcome a run of five losses in six games to win their last two regular season games and back their way into the PlayOff. They needed a Green Bay Packers loss in Week 18 to do that and they edged out the Detroit Lions thanks to an early road win over the Lions giving Seattle the tie-breaker.
Recent performance levels as well as the fact that the Seahawks have lost both games to the San Francisco 49ers in the regular season makes Seattle a big road underdog in this opening PlayOff Game of the 2022 season. Spreads like this are hard to work out considering how well the underdog have performed in the recent past in the NFL PlayOffs, but the two losses to the 49ers underline the feeling we all have in that the Seahawks do not match up effectively against this Divisional rival.
That is an issue on both sides of the ball, while the decline in the Geno Smith level at Quarter Back has to be a major concern heading into the post-season. He did not play badly in the wins to close out the season, but the mistakes that have been evident throughout his starting career in the NFL have begun to show up again down the stretch, mistakes that Geno Smith had been firmly in control of earlier in the season.
Before last season, Super Wild Card underdogs had been on a really strong run, but those teams were just 1-5 against the spread in the 2021 PlayOffs. That does not bode well for the Seahawks who will try and run the ball against the 49ers Defensive Line to ease the pressure on Smith, who is also making his first PlayOff start, an unenviable position for a Quarter Back.
The same will be the case for Brock Purdy playing Quarter Back for the San Francisco 49ers and there is no doubt that the intensity of a post-season game is a level above what will have been faced in the regular season. However, even with that in mind, Brock Purdy has shown he can deal with the pressure of being a starter in the NFL and he is surrounded by players that can make the difference for him.
In all likelihood, the Seattle Offensive Line is not going to suddenly rip off big gains against the San Francisco Defensive Line considering they have not had much success in either regular season game. That is going to shift the pressure onto Geno Smith and the weather conditions expected in Santa Clara for game time is going to make the passing game that much more difficult to execute.
Geno Smith has talented Receivers, but the question is whether he will have a good enough grip of the football to throw down the field and whether he will get the time needed for the likes of DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett to break open with the 49ers pass rush teeing off on the Quarter Back in third and long spots.
There have been one or two holes in the San Francisco Secondary that can be exposed, but the conditions and the one-dimensional nature of the Seattle Offensive unit may may it difficult to exploit those. You cannot ignore this team averaged 10 points per game against the 49ers in the regular season and it is going to be tough for Smith and the team to produce much better against this elite Defensive team.
Throwing conditions won't be easier for Brock Purdy, but the 49ers are not a team looking for the big play, but simply asking the Quarter Back to get the ball into the hands of the skill players and let them do the work. Another huge advantage for Purdy and the San Francisco 49ers is that they are very much expected to establish the run and Christian McCaffrey should have another big game against this Seattle Defensive Line which has not been able to stop the run all season.
Kyle Shanahan has shown he can find different ways to run the ball so I expect Deebo Samuel to also have his fair share of carries and all this means that Brock Purdy will be in front of the chains for much of the afternoon and not asked to carry the team. That means there is less pressure on this first-time starting Quarter Back compared with Geno Smith and Brock Purdy is not expected to be in situations where he can be forced into making mistakes.
Of course he will throw the ball at some point, but Purdy will be asked to make short throws into the likes of Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk and those Receivers can pick up plenty of yards after the catch on their own.
Ultimately I simply don't think this is a positive match up for the Seahawks on either side of the ball and staying with the 49ers looks like it could be a step too far.
There is a theory that beating the same team three times in a single season is tough to do, but those teams have won fourteen of the twenty-three games in that situation. You also have to accept that Divisional match ups in the post-season have favoured the underdog since 2014 with a strong 8-2 record against the spread, but neither game between the Seahawks and 49ers has been close in the regular season and I am not anticipating this one to be much different.
Seattle have been struggling down the stretch and are 1-7 against the spread in the last eight games played, while they have not covered in their last five against their NFC West rivals.
The Seahawks also have to deal with a poor trend going against teams that have not had recent PlayOff experience when facing an opponent that made the post-season in the previous year.
And of course there is that known issue that first time PlayOff Quarter Backs have had when set as the underdog- those teams are 7-18-1 against the spread since 2006, while San Francisco are trying to extend a run for home favourites of at least 7 points who are 13-4 against the spread in the Wild Card Round of the PlayOffs.
I simply don't think Brock Purdy will need to make pressurised throws too often and the 49ers can wear Seattle down at the line of scrimmage with a strong win to return to the Divisional Round of the post-season and hosting a game next weekend.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick: A few months ago you would have gotten some long odds on the Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8) winning the AFC South and securing a home game in the Super Wild Card Round of the PlayOffs. Five wins in a row have not only pushed the Jaguars into the PlayOffs, but they will feel like they are in the right mindset to deal with the post-season having won a 'knock out' game in Week 18 against the Tennessee Titans.
Winning the Division means hosting the Los Angeles Chargers (10-7) and I do think there is plenty of pressure on Head Coach Brandon Staley after deciding to play his starters for the full game in Week 18. In most circumstances it would not have been a decision that is being questioned, but the Chargers had been locked into the Number 5 Seed in the AFC before kick off and the injuries picked up by Mike Williams and Joey Bosa have had fans shaking their heads.
Losing in the Super Wild Card Round will thus be a major blow for the Chargers Head Coach, even though both Williams and Bosa are expected to suit up.
Los Angeles are the favourites even though they were blown out at home by the Jacksonville Jaguars in the regular season. The long trip to the East Coast is far from ideal too and I think this Jaguars team have shown an improvement through the course of the season while being guided by a Super Bowl Winning Head Coach that will make them very dangerous.
Trevor Lawrence is growing into the Quarter Back many believed he would be when selected as the Number 1 Overall Pick, but the Jaguars cannot be as sloppy Offensively as they were last week. It didn't help that they were not able to run the ball as they have come to expect against the very tough Titans Defensive Line, but at least this week there are likely to be more holes up front for Travis Etienne to try and burst through.
Jacksonville are going to need the running game working with an improving Chargers Secondary looking healthier and playing well down the stretch. They can put some pressure on Trevor Lawrence when he steps back to throw if they can put the Jaguars behind the chains and that could lead to mistakes, which has been an issue for the Quarter Back who has thrown 8 Interceptions, but also had 9 Fumbles.
At home, the Jaguars will feel they can have some success even after the inconsistent performance on this side of the ball in the Week 18 win over the Titans.
However, Doug Pederson may be leaning on his Defensive unit to play up to the level produced in holding the Titans to 16 points last week. Since allowing 34 points in a home win over the Dallas Cowboys, the Jaguars have allowed a total of 22 points in three games, although it should be noted the struggling Quarter Backs they have faced in that time.
Justin Herbert is not struggling and he is surrounded by some talented Receiving options and a decent Running Back in Austin Ekeler.
It has not been easy to run the ball against the Jaguars Defensive Line and they restricted the impact that Ekeler was able to make in their blow out win on the road over the Chargers. The Titans did have some joy on the ground with Derrick Henry and Joshua Dobbs from the Quarter Back position, but the Chargers will be happy enough throwing the ball if they have to.
That was not the case for the Titans and there are some vulnerabilities in the Jacksonville Secondary with Mike Williams, Keenan Allen and Josh Palmer likely to have the edge over the Defensive Backs. Justin Herbert is confident of finding those behind an Offensive Line that has offered their Quarter Back a bit more time throwing the ball down the field.
With Austin Ekeler a solid safety blanket in the passing game, I think the Chargers will be confident of earning the win on the road, but this really feels like a close game.
With that in mind, the spread is much harder to work out at the number below a Field Goal amount of points and I think I could make a case for both teams. Two inexperienced Quarter Backs in PlayOff Football clouds things a bit more, but my narrowest of leans has to be with the home underdog finding a way to win this one outright.
Instead of the spread, I am going to look for the two teams to finish below the total line set for the game.
The Defensive units look to match up pretty well with the Offenses they are going to face and I do think it will be a closely fought game.
The under is actually 11-3 in the last fourteen Jacksonville home games and it is also 5-1 in the last six Los Angeles Chargers games. With the teams looking to establish the run, I do think the game could be shortened and it should be a lower scoring game than the layers may expect if turnovers are avoided to offer up short fields.
Whoever wins is likely to be a significant underdog next week in the Divisional Round, but this is an important game for the development of the franchise Quarter Back for both teams, although it may be a game dominated by the Defensive units.
Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills Pick: This has been a season of progress for the Miami Dolphins (9-8), but it is likely going to end with a 'one and done' post-season appearance. And for all of the positives, there is a huge question mark over the franchise and that is what to do with Tua Tagovailoa at Quarter Back.
After an uneven time in the professional ranks, Mike McDaniel has really gotten something out of Tua Tagovailoa, but the big problem has been the durability of a player that is going to want a huge contract extension sooner rather than later. The concussions are bad luck, but also partly down to the mismanagement of the early one that was suffered by Tagovailoa, but it has ruled him out of the Super Wild Card Round and it is hard to know if he will be activated even if Miami are to cause a monumental upset on Sunday.
When Tua Tagovailoa has been healthy, the Miami Dolphins have looked like they could have a team that will develop into one that can win the Super Bowl. That is why there is a serious question for the Miami management team in deciding how to move forward, although I expect the Dolphins to be linked with a major name veteran or two during this off-season (book Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers as those names).
For now the concentration for the Dolphins is how they can do enough Offensively to keep up with the AFC East Champions Buffalo Bills (13-3) who missed out on the Bye Week into the Divisional Round having played one game fewer than the Kansas City Chiefs. I don't think many associated with Buffalo will care too much about that after hearing the news that Damar Hamlin looks to be taking the right steps towards recovery and I do think that news is something that can give the whole team a boost in the post-season.
They are a massive favourite to win this game with the Miami Dolphins banged up and potentially having to play third string Quarter Back, Skylar Thompson, again. Teddy Bridgewater has a damaged finger on his throwing hand so even if he gets the start, you have to believe he is going to have a hard time getting the ball out to the likes of Jayden Waddle and Tyreek Hill and this game does have the potential of getting ugly.
Running the ball has been a way to get at the Buffalo Defensive unit, but once again Miami have picked up an injury at a bad time with Raheem Mostert likely to miss out. Jeff Wilson has had some success, but it was Mostert who ran the ball really well when these two Divisional rivals met last month and I think the Bills Defensive Line may choose to clamp down on the run and dare a banged up veteran or a rookie to beat them with their arm.
Miami's Offensive Line will offer up some time, but Skylar Thompson has a tendency to hold onto the ball too long and this week is facing a Buffalo Secondary that has recovered some health. Damar Hamlin came in to replace Micah Hyde and the latter is not likely to play until the AFC Championship Game, if Buffalo get there, but I am not sure Miami have the tools to have a lot of success and this could be really tough if they fall a couple of scores behind.
There is every chance that could happen relatively quickly, even if Josh Allen has not played quite up to the level we all know he possesses at Quarter Back.
Unlike the Dolphins, Buffalo may not be able to lean on their running game as they have in recent weeks with the Miami Defensive Line continuing to clog up lanes and hitting Running Backs in the backfield for losses. Josh Allen is a dual-threat at Quarter Back and did have some big runs in the last game against Miami, and that element did allow the Bills to produce 150 yards on the ground in that narrow win in this Stadium so it could be down to Allen to open things up for his own passing game to thrive.
It will be another cold afternoon for these teams in Buffalo, but clearer conditions should give Buffalo's passing game a chance to shine.
Josh Allen did light up this Secondary in the win in December and I think he will be able to pick up from where he left off. The Miami Dolphins have played hard on the Defensive side of the ball to make up for the absence of Tua Tagovailoa at Quarter Back, but there are too many weapons for Buffalo to exploit the problems that can be had in the passing game and I do think this will give Buffalo every opportunity to cover a mammoth spread.
It really would not be a massive surprise if Skylar Thompson throws an Interception or two to offer up short fields for Buffalo, which eventually leads to the blow out, although this spread is likely to be in play right into the Fourth Quarter.
Make no mistake about that with the number where it is and a backdoor cover could occur if the Bills have a big lead and decide to pull some of their starters. However, Wild Card home teams are a perfect 12-0 against the spread when set as a favourite of at least 9.5 points and Buffalo can certainly pull away for a big win here.
Skylar Thompson would also be impacted by the trend that says first time PlayOff Quarter Backs are just 17-39-1 against the spread since 2004 when they are playing opposite an experienced PlayOff Quarter Back, while I expect a strong Defensive Head Coach like Sean McDermott to have one or two surprises for the rookie behind Center.
This is a big number, but Buffalo have all of the momentum and talent to cover... Blow out in my opinion.
New York Giants @ Minnesota Vikings Pick: Another rematch from a regular season meeting in December takes place in Minneapolis on Sunday in the Super Wild Card Round when home team Minnesota Vikings (13-4) host the New York Giants (9-7-1). This is not only a rematch between the teams, but they are meeting in the same venue and there is every chance this will be just as close as the regular season game.
The higher Seed is once again the favourite, but the spread is not as high as the first meeting and I think it is a massive shame we cannot get more than a Field Goal worth of points with the New York Giants again.
There is some pressure on the New York Quarter Back with Daniel Jones making his first PlayOff start, and I have mentioned the poor trend those first timers have when opposed by a Quarter Back that does have post-season experience.
However, the New York Giants should be able to move the ball pretty efficiently throughout the course of the Super Wild Card Round and the Giants are well rested having given the starters Week 18 to recover. The feeling is that will not have broken any rhythm that the Giants have picked up Offensively with Daniel Jones throwing to his patched up Receivers and having that week rest could be crucial.
The Vikings rested their own starters for much of the Week 18 win over the Chicago Bears too, but they have been a team that has struggled Defensively all season and I just don't know how that changes now.
A major problem has been an inability to stop the run and Saquon Barkley should have a strong performance for the Giants, while Daniel Jones can also move the ball with his legs. Establishing the run sets up everything that the New York Giants will want to do in this game and they have seen Jones find a solid enough connection with the Receivers on the roster that have stepped up as injuries have taken away some of the stronger players on the team.
Daniel Jones should be well protected and the Minnesota Secondary numbers down the stretch look better because teams felt they didn't need to throw against them as they have been gashed on the ground. This is a Secondary that can be exploited though and Jones should find himself having a few options whenever he gets into play-action calls coming through the headset.
I am quite critical of the Minnesota Vikings, but that is largely because their thirteen wins in the regular season seem vastly overinflated as to where they should have been.
However, the Giants have not been much better Defensively and I think the experience of Kirk Cousins coupled with the talent on the Offensive side of the ball should mean Minnesota have plenty of success when they have the ball in their hands too.
Dalvin Cook has remained one of the better Running Backs in the NFL and he should be able to put the Vikings in a position where they do not have to deal with third and long situations to move the chains. They may not have the same mobility out of the Quarter Back, but the Giants have struggled to clamp down on the run and Cook is capable of managing the workload and pushing ahead for the big gain at any time.
This is also very important for Kirk Cousins, who has not been as well protected by the Offensive Line as he would have liked and who would potentially be under significant pass rush pressure when the Vikings find themselves behind the chains. Avoiding mistakes is the key for Minnesota and allowing Cousins to use the play-action to slow down the pass rush and hit his Receivers down the field.
You do have to credit the Giants Secondary for the level at which they are performing, but closing down Justin Jefferson and this Receiving corps will not be easy. They should have some success if they can win at the line of scrimmage and I do think the Giants may have the slight edge in this game, which makes the points in their favour look appealing enough.
Backing Daniel Jones and the Giants means going against a very strong trend that would suggest the Minnesota Vikings are the right side, but I simply do not believe they are the better team and missing a push, at the worst, would be a disappointment.
These two teams both missed the PlayOffs last season and the home team in the Super Wild Card Round in that situation have gone 3-15 against the spread since 2006, which goes against the Vikings here.
Minnesota also closed the season on a 1-4 run against the spread and the New York Giants are 7-0 against the spread following a loss. With a rested team, I think the New York Giants and Minnesota Vikings will both push one another, but this time I believe the Giants can earn revenge for the regular season defeat at this same Stadium.
Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals Pick: Losing in Week 18 meant the Baltimore Ravens (10-7) were not able to force a coin-toss that would potentially have meant hosting this Super Wild Card Round game. Instead the Cincinnati Bengals (12-4) secured home field for this big game, although teams who have lost their last regular season game and then facing the same opponent in the PlayOffs have tended to be very strong against the spread.
That is about as positive as you can really feel about the Ravens who have simply put too much pressure on their own Defensive unit in the absence of Lamar Jackson. A big contract decision has to be made by the Ravens and Jackson in the off-season, but for now the Quarter Back position is one that has not seen good enough play without Jackson to believe the Ravens can have a very deep post-season run.
Despite playing a number of back up players and a third string Quarter Back in Week 18, the Baltimore Ravens did show they can be competitive against the AFC North Champions. Tyler Huntley could be back this week for Baltimore to give them stronger play out of the Quarter Back position, but Snoop has not really been able to come close to the production you would expect from Lamar Jackson and it has seen the Ravens fail to score more than 17 points in any game since the end of November.
As I said in Week 18, it does feel like the Baltimore Ravens match up poorly with the Cincinnati Defensive unit and I am not sure they are going to be able to produce much better in this Super Wild Card Round game. Tyler Huntley will get some help from the running game and he should be able to make some plays on the ground himself, but the Bengals have been pretty good against the run in recent games and I expect they are going to dare Baltimore to beat them with the pass.
Baltimore will have some success on the ground, but they need Huntley to find something in the passing game, anything that may force the Cincinnati Bengals to think twice about loading the box. There are some issues in the Bengals Secondary and Anthony Brown highlighted that by throwing for almost 300 yards through the air in the Week 18 defeat, although turnovers effectively made it a poor performance.
Turnovers have been very important for the Bengals of late and I do think they can produce a couple more on the day to take control of this game.
And there is almost no doubt that Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Offense are going to have the stronger consistency when it comes to moving the ball when they have it, although they cannot underestimate how good this Baltimore Defensive unit can be.
Last week would have shown the Bengals how difficult the starting Baltimore unit are going to make life for them and Joe Burrow will know he is likely going to have to put the team on his shoulders to win the game. The Cincinnati Offensive Line have not been consistent in the run game, even with Joe Mixon in the backfield, and they are not expected to get a lot of change from the Baltimore Defensive Line which has been able to clamp down on the run effectively.
In Week 18 they limited the Bengals to just 55 yards on the ground and the Ravens have to feel they can make the home team a little one-dimensional in this one too. Those turnovers mentioned were the key for Cincinnati in their win over Baltimore last week, but a cleaner game will give the road team some opportunities as they look for the upset over the current AFC Champions.
With the team likely to be in obvious passing positions on the field, Joe Burrow will have to deal with a Baltimore pass rush as he attempts to move the ball against a tough Secondary.
Joe Burrow does have some strong Receiving options and those are likely to win some of their battles on the outside, but I think Baltimore's key Defensive players will step up and keep this one close by holding down the Bengals Offensive output.
A first time Quarter Back playing in the PlayOff is a trend against Baltimore, but I do like the way teams have bounced back from losing their last regular season game and facing the same opponent in the opening Round of the post-season.
Cincinnati have been very strong at home and they have positive trends that support them, but I think John Harbaugh will have a plan for this game that gives Baltimore a chance. They are still likely to come up short, but the Ravens should be stronger than last week and I think they make use of getting more than a Touchdown worth of points as the underdog in this Super Wild Card Round game.
The road team is 6-2-1 against the spread in the last nine between these AFC North Divisional rivals and I think the Baltimore Ravens can find enough plays to secure a cover.
Dallas Cowboys @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: The final Super Wild Card PlayOff game of the weekend will be played on Monday evening and the winner will know exactly what the Divisional Round holds for them before kick off. However, the focus has to be on winning and extending the season when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9) become the only team to host a PlayOff game with a losing record this season against the Dallas Cowboys (12-5).
All season we have been waiting for the Buccaneers to find their rhythm in the 2022 season, but that has not happened.
There were some positive signs in the important Week 17 win over the Carolina Panthers and the Offensive Line could have a boost with a potentially returning Ryan Jensen at Center. He has been a huge miss for Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay team all season, but Jensen looks to be trending towards a return and that will be big for the Buccaneers.
Tom Brady will need all of the support he can get from his Offensive Line as the Buccaneers look for a home upset and a visit to either Philadelphia or San Francisco. Improved play up front will also be important to try and get something consistent out of the rushing attack, an area where the Buccaneers have struggled all season.
Even if they are finding their feet in run blocking, the Buccaneers are facing a Dallas Defensive Line which has shown improvement in clamping down on the run. They finished the season holding teams to 3.6 yards per carry and this Tampa Bay team are not expected to get much more going even if the likes of Ryan Jensen are back.
Where Jensen and company can make a difference is giving Tom Brady enough time to try and hit his Receivers down the field. Earlier in the season the Dallas pass rush was playing with freedom and hitting the Quarter Back time and time again, but that has changed in recent weeks and Brady is also someone who will get the ball out of his hands quickly enough to negate the pressure he feels.
And the slowing of the pass rush has also meant the Dallas Secondary have begun to give up some significant passing plays, which should also be very encouraging to Brady and company. Of course you do have to wonder if you can really trust a Tampa Bay team that have seemingly underperformed most weeks, but the same criticism can be levelled at the Dallas Cowboys who have regularly fallen short when it comes to the post-season.
The Week 18 performance will be a concern for long-suffering Dallas fans and they will know they cannot afford to see the team make the kinds of mistakes that they did in the defeat to the Washington Commanders. Dak Prescott has had good moments, but continues to turn the ball over and that is not the way you can win in the post-season.
The Quarter Back may point to a lack of success in establishing the run as a contributory factor in his recent performances, but Dallas may feel they can get Ezekiel Elliot and Tony Pollard back on track against this Tampa Bay Defensive Line. It is very important for Dallas to do that and avoid leaving Dak Prescott in third and long spots and those obvious passing situations and the line of scrimmage may be where this PlayOff game is either won or lost.
If the Cowboys can stay in front of the chains, the Tampa Bay Secondary is one that can be exploited and Dallas do have Receivers like CeeDee Lamb who can make plays for them down the field. That is so important for Dallas as they bid to win a PlayOff game and build some confidence and momentum in the post-season, but this feels like the kind of game where they will come up short.
Dallas have been able to bounce back from losses very well, but they are just 1-4-1 against the spread in their last six road games.
It has been a season long struggle for Tampa Bay to cover in games as they have tended to be over-rated by the oddsmakers, but Wild Card road favourites are now just 7-8-1 against the spread in the last sixteen games with that situation. That includes Los Angeles Chargers failing to cover on Saturday evening and I think Tampa Bay with the points is the play here.
MY PICKS: San Francisco 49ers - 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Jacksonville Jaguars-Los Angeles Chargers Under 48.5 Total Points @ 1.83 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Buffalo Bills - 13.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
New York Giants + 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Baltimore Ravens + 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers + 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
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