The first Grand Slam of the season is underway, but I did say in the Day 1 thread that I will have a few thoughts about how I believe the tournament could progress.
The men's tournament is still led by two veterans in Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal, although the latter has been a fitness worry entering the Australian Open and showed very little to suggest he can go all the way in his First Round win over Jack Draper.
One or two concerns were raised about Novak Djokovic, but I am really not surprised that he is the odds on favourite to return to Melbourne and secure yet another Australian Open title and join his great rival Rafael Nadal on twenty-two career Slam titles.
Splitting these two legends in the market is Daniil Medvedev, the Runner Up in each of the last two years. I am not sure how he was beaten in the Final last year when seemingly firmly in control, and I am not sure Medvedev has much of an explanation himself, but he could take advantage in the top half of the draw.
Jannik Sinner is a dark horse having reached the Quarter Final at the US Open and I think I would be pretty surprised if the winner is not one of those names I've mentioned. I don't think Rafael Nadal can win the event barring a massive improvement in his fitness, and Novak Djokovic looks the rightful favourite.
Not for the first time in recent years, the women's event looks wide open and even more so when you think of some of the doubts around Iga Swiatek, the current World Number 1 and favourite to win the tournament.
Some suggested Iga Swiatek might not have been ready to compete, but she is in the draw and that means some big prices are available on some of the other key names to look out for.
I've long thought Aryna Sabalenka would win a Grand Slam and she looked in decent form leading into the Australian Open, while the timing might be right for Cori Gauff to really become a superstar of the sport.
In reality I think you could pick out ten names that have the potential to get hot over the next fortnight and take home a Grand Slam title- players like Caroline Garcia, Elena Rybakina, Jessica Pegula and Maria Sakkari all have to be respected.
Rather than ask me which of the two are most likely to make the Final a week on Saturday, I think you would have just as much a chance of getting your prediction right if you tossed ten names in the air and picked the two that landed the right way up.
The openness of the draw can be a stick that critics use to beat the WTA Tour, but I think it does make it intriguing for the fans. Making picks from the women's game can be a touch more hazardous though with players moving in and out of form every few days, let alone few tournaments, but I am hoping we can get two or three players who move clear of the pack to join Iga Swiatek as the top players on this Tour.
Day 1 is in the books and it was a decent start for the Tennis Picks.
While we have a loaded Day 2 schedule with the remainder of the First Round to be played, selections look a little harder to find and you can see my Picks below.
Matteo Berrettini - 4.5 games v Andy Murray: There always plenty of intriguing storylines and players to watch at the start of any Grand Slam event and we do have some very good looking First Round matches at the Australian Open in 2023. Arguably the best of the bunch is the match between Matteo Berrettini and Andy Murray as the two players hope for a year free from injury.
Both of these players have experienced success in Melbourne, although Andy Murray must always wonder how he was not able to win a Grand Slam title here. Those days of challenging for Slam titles look behind him, but Murray has arrived at the Australian Open in bullish mood and feels he is much closer to his best, which will allow him to take on the best players on the Tour with a real ambition to beat those players.
He did reach the Third Round at the US Open last September, but the run was ended at the hands of Matteo Berrettini in four sets and the same player will be in front of Murray to open his 2023 Grand Slam season.
2022 proved to be a tough year for Matteo Berrettini following his run to the Semi Final at the Australian Open and he missed significant time on the court, including being unable to play at Wimbledon the year after reaching the Final in SW19. There we no Ranking points available at Wimbledon, but Matteo Berrettini has slipped out of the top ten in the World Rankings with the time spent away from the Tour and there will be some pressure to match the run he had at the Australian Open last year to prevent another slippage.
Matteo Berrettini has shown he is a confident player on any surface and his serve is a very dangerous weapon on the hard courts.
He wins a high percentage of points behind serve and unsurprisingly that means Matteo Berrettini is able to hold plenty of his service games. There is still room for improvement on the return of serve, but Matteo Berrettini has had more success when facing Andy Murray and has broken in 22% of the returns games played against this opponent.
In the two previous hard court matches against Andy Murray, Matteo Berrettini has broken in 21% of return games played compared with a 12% mark for the former World Number 1. When they met at the US Open, Matteo Berrettini created almost four times more Break Points than Andy Murray managed to do on the day and the performances at the United Cup showed that Berrettini might be feeling his confidence returning on the court.
I like Andy Murray and there was a time when he had the athleticism and returning skills to give an opponent like Matteo Berrettini fits.
However, Murray has never really gotten back to his top level on the court on this side of the net and I think he will be competitive, but ultimately come up short in a similar manner as when these players met in New York City.
Andrey Rublev - 4.5 games v Dominic Thiem: The long recovery from injury for Dominic Thiem will have tested the former US Open Champion mentally and is only just inside the top 100 of the World Rankings these days.
He did have some decent runs at events after the US Open, but Dominic Thiem was well beaten in his first match of 2023 and this is a tough test for him.
Andrey Rublev may not be playing as well as he would like, but he had a strong World Tour Finals at the end of the 2022 season and three wins in a row over this opponent will give the Russian player a lot of confidence with the match up in front of him.
There is a lot to like about the way Andrey Rublev takes to matches on any surface and his aggression makes him dangerous. The serve has become a strong weapon for him and I think Rublev will be able to move into a position to earn his first win of the 2023 season after disappointing defeats in back to back events played in Adelaide.
Those losses will have dented some of the confidence, but Rublev will feel his opposite number is also having some issues finding the consistency he would want and the three wins in a row against the Austrian has to give Andrey Rublev more belief.
It is a spread that suggests the layers are not entirely sure what to expect from Andrey Rublev, but it may also be a line that represents what Dominic Thiem is capable of at his best. He has yet to find that level on his return from a long-term injury though and I think Rublev will be able to win this one in three or four sets, which should give him the opportunity to cover this line.
MY PICKS: Matteo Berrettini - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Andrey Rublev - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Thanasi Kokkinakis - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 7.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 5-1, + 6.52 Units (12 Units Staked, + 54.33% Yield)
No comments:
Post a Comment