One half of the Semi Final line up has been confirmed and the remaining four places will be decided on Day 10 at the tournament.
There is a full day of action on the Rod Laver Arena beginning with the two women's Quarter Final matches followed by the men.
Ben Shelton-Tommy Paul Over 38.5 games: It was not a good day for American tennis on Tuesday at the Australian Open as two players fell at the Quarter Final stage of the tournament, one each from the men's and women's draws. However, it is not all doom and gloom with this Quarter Final guaranteeing at least one player into the last four as the two remaining American players meet one another in what should be a big hitting match.
Both Ben Shelton and Tommy Paul have surprisingly made their way through to the Quarter Final, although the inexperienced Shelton has arguably benefited from a kind draw. While he has yet to beat a player Ranked inside the top 66, Tommy Paul has beaten three players from inside the top 40 to make his way into the last eight.
In recent seasons Tommy Paul has been a much improved player on the Tour and his numbers on his favourite surface, the hard courts, have reflected the improvement made. He reached his career best World Ranking last September at Number 28, but a win on Day 10 at the Australian Open will mean Paul is going to crack the top 20 regardless of how much further he progresses in the tournament.
That is a huge motivation, as well as the opportunity to perhaps win his first ever Grand Slam title, but Tommy Paul would be making a real mistake overlooking his compatriot. Amazingly, Ben Shelton had not played outside of the United States before heading 'Down Under' to play a couple of warm up events prior to the Australian Open and he has taken full advantage of the way the draw has broken down for him.
However, it would be wrong to say Ben Shelton is just an opportunist considering he ended last season with three straight titles at the Challenger level. He is inexperienced, but the lefty has a big serve and he has won 76% of the points played behind the serve at the Australian Open, which has unsurprisingly led to holds in 96% of service games played.
It will always give the young American a chance and having the confidence in the serve will also put opponents under significant pressure knowing one lapse in concentration could cost them a set. Tommy Paul will be aware of that, but he will be happy enough with his own level of serving with 88% of games held in the tournament and that despite playing the higher quality of opponent compared with Ben Shelton.
A real difference between the players is the return of serve and that is where the favourite, Tommy Paul, has a significant edge. He has broken in 33% of return games at the tournament, but has regularly managed 28% break rates over the course of a season on the hard courts in recent years, while Ben Shelton has only broken in 13% of return games played.
Ben Shelton's break percentage is much better on the Challenger Tour, but it is still below the mark that Tommy Paul has produced on the main ATP Tour and it could prove to be significant when it comes to the tie-breakers that are likely going to be needed.
My edge is with Tommy Paul to use his experience and return game to just about move past Ben Shelton, but I would be surprised if the young American completely wilted away. This is a new situation for Shelton to deal with, but if he serves as well as he can, he will feel he can at least take a set from Tommy Paul and I think the two players could combine to surpass the total games line set.
I thought it might be a few more games higher than where the total currently stands and it would be a surprise if either player is blown away. A three set win for either would mean the total cannot be surpassed, but I anticipate both will win a set and it could be a day for the servers on Rod Laver Arena.
Novak Djokovic - 6.5 games v Andrey Rublev: There has been some frustration from Novak Djokovic and his camp that some have sought to downplay the injury he has been dealing with throughout the Australian Open. It may have something to do with the fact he looked to be really struggling two years ago before comfortably working his way through the draw and his Fourth Round win over Alex De Minaur was also very 'easy' a couple of days ago.
Personally I do think there is an issue, but I am not sure it is as serious as it has sometimes looked. It does have to be managed, as any sore hamstring would need, but Novak Djokovic is certainly going to be strong enough to finish this event and it is going to take a special effort to beat him on a court he has long dominated.
Andrey Rublev won't be intimidated by the challenge, even though he has lost two of the three previous matches against the former World Number 1. Both of those defeats have been indoor hard court defeats at the ATP Tour Finals, but the main reason Andrey Rublev should not worry about beating Novak Djokovic in a place he is very comfortable is because his one win came last year in Belgrade.
That was on a clay court, but Novak Djokovic is a very comfortable player on that surface so the win should not be downgraded. On that day Andrey Rublev got a bit more out of the serve and was able to win the big points, but he was very strong on the return of serve and is going to need to be very effective on this side of the net if he is going to upset the favourite for the title.
It has been a different story in the two hard court matches though and Novak Djokovic has had a massive edge over Andrey Rublev- he has held 94% of his service games played in those two matches compared with Rublev's 56% mark and that has to be a real confidence booster for the fans of the Serb.
Barring a couple of slip ups against Grigor Dimitrov in the Third Round, Novak Djokovic has been serving at an incredible level through this Australian Open tournament and has held 94% of the service games played. I do think Andrey Rublev can test that, but he is coming in off an emotional and physical match against Holger Rune and you do have to factor in the lack of success in return games the Russian has had against Djokovic in their hard court matches.
Andrey Rublev has also been serving well in the four matches won in Melbourne after struggles in losses in warm up events earlier this month. That is key for him again to try and keep Novak Djokovic under some pressure, but the latter has been returning at a very high level all week and he has broken at least five times in all four wins, while winning 47% of return points played leading to breaks in 42% of return games played.
This is a big spread as far as the level of Andrey Rublev at his best is concerned and with some doubts about how healthy Novak Djokovic is, but I do think their previous hard court matches suggest that Djokovic will be the dominant player. I expect one or two sets to be close, but Novak Djokovic should be able to put at least one set in the bank with a double break of serve and that can see him cover this handicap mark set.
MY PICKS: Ben Shelton-Tommy Paul Over 38.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 6.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Donna Vekic + 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 37-28, + 7.78 Units (126 Units Staked, + 6.17% Yield)
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