The first Grand Slam Final of the season has been set and it should be a big hitting, winner filled encounter when Elena Rybakina and Aryna Sabalenka meet on Saturday.
Before that, we have to put together the men's Final with the two Semi Final matches scheduled to be played on Rod Laver Arena on Friday. The first of those is effectively going to be played in the 'day' session and that might mean the winner is less accustomed to the kind of conditions they are going to see on Sunday, but I don't think it will make a massive difference in the market if Novak Djokovic wins the second Semi Final.
In that case you have to believe the nine time Australian Open Champion is going to be a significant favourite to another in Melbourne regardless of who he faces.
Late breaks proved to just turn the tide on some of the inconsistent fortune that has impacted the Tennis Picks over the last week.
In the Day 11 Semi Final matches, both Elena Rybakina and Aryna Sabalenka were able to turn the screw and deservedly cover as big favourites. That has ensured a winning tournament for the Tennis Picks, but I still need to finish with a flourish to put some strong numbers in the book in January.
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 1.5 sets v Karen Khachanov: It might have been a tough, battling Quarter Final win for Stefanos Tsitsipas, but one of the top players on the ATP Tour showed the confidence and focus to dismiss Jiri Lehecka in straight sets just two days after needing five sets to beat Jannik Sinner.
The recovery to beat Sinner having dropped the third and fourth sets will have given Stefanos Tsitsipas full belief in his ability to win a maiden Grand Slam title, a win that could spark the career. The longer you have to wait for it, the harder it becomes, but winning a first major could push Tsitsipas onto very good things, especially as he would also end the tournament as the new World Number 1.
It is very important for Stefanos Tsitsipas to make hay in the first half of the year where his best Grand Slam results have tended to be at the Australian Open and French Open. He has yet to reach the Final in Melbourne, but Tsitsipas will be playing in his fourth Semi Final here, while he has made one Final at Roland Garros and reached another Semi Final there.
Compare that to Wimbledon and the US Open where the World Number 4 has only reached the SECOND WEEK once in his career and you have to think Stefanos Tsitsipas needs some momentum to take into those later Slams. Winning a first Slam would be the exact momentum to push a player forward and Stefanos Tsitsipas has played really well this month and carried that through to his performances in Melbourne.
Karen Khachanov has to be hugely respected as he has made back to back Grand Slam Semi Finals, although he was well beaten by Casper Ruud at the US Open in September. He had not been beyond the Third Round at the Australian Open before this season and he has taken full advantage of what has been a relatively kind draw so far at the tournament, although Karen Khachanov will be the first to admit how much higher his level is going to have to be to win this one and reach his first Grand Slam Final.
Both of these players are serving really well and that is going to be key to the outcome of the Semi Final- Karen Khachanov has the edge on the returning numbers this week, but these players have tended to have similar numbers on that side of their tennis on the hard courts over a much longer sample size.
Over the last twelve months on this surface, Karen Khachanov has broken in 22% of return games compared with Stefanos Tsitsipas' 19% mark, and both have seen those dip significantly when facing top 20 Ranked opponents on the surface. The difference is that Stefanos Tsitsipas has kept his serving numbers at a strong level against the better players on the Tour, while Karen Khachanov's dip from an overall 83% hold mark to 75%.
Stefanos Tsitsipas should also hold the mental edge having won all five previous matches against the Russian and only dropped two sets in that time. The last win was on a clay court, but Tsitsipas is 4-0 against Karen Khachanov on the hard courts and the former has held 89% of his service games compared with 72% for Khachanov.
I expect the superior server to be Stefanos Tsitsipas in this Semi Final and it should help him lay the foundation for a place in his first Australian Open Final. He can win this in three or four sets and make sure he is as fresh as possible for what is likely to be a big physical and mental challenge on Sunday.
Novak Djokovic - 8.5 games v Tommy Paul: All credit has to be given to Tommy Paul for forcing his way into the last four at the Australian Open, but it is going to take a monumental effort for the American to become the first men's player from that nation to win a Grand Slam title since 2003. He is not only going to be an underdog in this Semi Final, but Tommy Paul would likely start the Final as the underdog too, regardless of who makes it through the other Semi Final.
In reality, Tommy Paul cannot look beyond the player he is facing on Friday.
The nine time Australian Open Champion continues to fend off questions about his health following a second dominant win in a row after Novak Djokovic crushed Andrey Rublev in the Quarter Final. There has been some suggestion that he is overplaying the significance of the hamstring injury he is clearly carrying, but Djokovic's team have batted them away and the Serb is very focused on winning a tenth Grand Slam here having not been beaten in Australia since 2018 (at least not on a tennis court rather than a court of justice).
His numbers have been really, really strong in the tournament and Novak Djokovic continues to serve at a very high level. This has made things a little easier for the former World Number 1 and he has held 95% of the service games played in Melbourne, which is the same mark he carried from the Adelaide tournament won in warm up for the first Grand Slam of the season.
The serve has always been underrated and most will focus on the exceptional return play that is associated with Novak Djokovic. The stop-start nature of his 2022 campaign may have contributed to the slightly declined return numbers, but Novak Djokovic has returned with authority in Australia over the last month and is breaking in 32% of return games played. Even more impressive, Novak Djokovic has upped that mark to 42% at the Australian Open and it will be a part of his game that puts an immense amount of pressure on Tommy Paul.
The American's own serve has been a huge part of his success at Melbourne Park and Tommy Paul has held 89% of the service games played, although that is a mark considerably higher than he has managed over the last few years. Maintaining that level is not really expected week after week on the Tour, but Paul has to try and find a way to produce two more matches where he can hit his marks on the court.
Over the last twelve months, serving well enough against the top 20 Ranked player on the hard courts has been difficult for Tommy Paul and he has held 77% of those game in that time. It is still a decent enough mark, but you have to imagine Novak Djokovic is going to exert plenty of pressure on him on a court where the former World Number 1 arguably feels his most comfortable on the Tour.
A question for Tommy Paul will be whether he can return well enough to make up for his serve being attacked more than he has been used to in this tournament. He has broken in 29% of return games played at the Australian Open, but that is significantly higher than his mark for the last twelve months, while those numbers have dipped to 21% when only considering hard court matches against top 20 Ranked players.
You can't take away from his successes at this tournament, but Tommy Paul has benefited from a kind draw which has seen him beat one player Ranked inside the top 30 and none inside the top 20. There have been some solid wins at the event, which has to be respected, but this is a considerable level up and I think Novak Djokovic will ultimately wear down his inexperienced opponent and come through with a big win and a cover of this line.
MY PICKS: Stefanos Tsitsipas - 1.5 Sets @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 8.5 Games @ 2.00 Coral (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 41-30, + 10.48 Units (138 Units Staked, + 7.59% Yield)
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