After a really positive run through the Third Round matches, the Fourth Round was a touch more frustrating.
However, I can only be pleased with the opening of the 2023 season... It is only an opening though with six days left at the tournament.
Eight Quarter Final matches, four Semi Final matches and two Finals have to be played across those six days before the end of the Australian Open and so this is a time not to applaud past successes, but remain focused to ensure a positive end to the event can be secured. This is going to feel important because I will not be having any more Tennis Picks in January and perhaps not until the WTA Tour begins its swing through the Middle East.
The ATP Tour will hit the South American Golden Swing and indoor hard court events in Europe before their tournaments are also head to Qatar and Dubai for big events at the end of February.
All in all it means the next few days are important to build on the start made at the Australian Open and you can see the selections from Day 9 as the top half Quarter Final matches are played.
Sebastian Korda v Karen Khachanov: It is almost twenty full years since an American men's tennis player has won a Grand Slam title when Andy Roddick picked up his sole Slam at the US Open. Since then, American tennis has struggled to find the talent to really challenge for the major prizes on the ATP Tour, but the last couple of years there has been a momentum shift.
We may finally have seen that come together at a Grand Slam where a number of those younger players have made it through to the Quarter Final of the Australian Open. On Day 10 we are going to definitely be getting at least one American male player into the last four of a Grand Slam, but on Day 9 arguably the most talented of the players leaving those shores will be in action in his own Quarter Final.
Having a former Australian Open Champion as a father and a top 30 Ranked WTA player as a mother has clearly helped the children with the Korda sisters making a big name for themselves on the LPGA Tour, but it is Sebastian Korda making the biggest waves this week. He may consider himself the 'worst athlete' in the family, but at the end of this tournament he is definitely going to be eclipsing his mother's best World Ranking mark and is looking to win the same title his father did twenty-five years ago.
American commentators have long talked up what Sebastian Korda could be capable of and you do wonder how many more Grand Slams he could pick up if he can win one early in his career. 2023 has already started in impressive fashion for Korda who has a number of top 20 wins already and he is the favourite in this Quarter Final.
I think the price would have been much wider in favour of Sebastian Korda if he had not been dealing with one or two issues in his win over Hubert Hurkacz in the Fourth Round, while the performances of Karen Khachanov have been very impressive this week. The Russian is higher Ranked than Sebastian Korda and is an experienced player at the business end of Grand Slams having reached three previous Quarter Finals at this level at each of the other three tournaments played.
Karen Khachanov will be looking to make it back to back Grand Slam Semi Final runs after doing that at the US Open in September and that does mean he should be respected. The serve is a potent weapon for Khachanov when he is at his best, and it has been operating at a pretty high level at the Australian Open which has given Karen Khachanov an opportunity to play loose and aggressive on the return.
His toughest match this week was the four set win over Frances Tiafoe, but otherwise Khachanov has been untroubled and so should be the fresher player.
It should be said that the Karen Khachanov numbers are far stronger this week than those produced by Sebastian Korda, but I do think the wins over Daniil Medvedev and Hubert Hurkacz will stand Korda in good stead.
Further he won both hard court matches against Karen Khachanov last year and Sebastian Korda had a considerable edge on the serve in those matches- he won 66% of service points played and held 86% of service games played compared with Khachanov's 60% and 71% marks respectively.
It has been a really good month for Sebastian Korda and I do think he can keep up his edge over this opponent as he looks to make a maiden Grand Slam Semi Final. You have to imagine that Sebastian Korda has grown up ready to deal with the nerves that come with his strongest Grand Slam run of his young career and I think he will be able to do enough to get past a big-hitting, quality opponent like Karen Khachanov in a tough battle.
The head to head edge on the numbers and the results over the last six months should be a major confidence booster for the young American and I will back him to move through.
Jiri Lehecka + 6.5 games v Stefanos Tsitsipas: He may have started his tennis career much later than most, but Jiri Lehecka is clearly very, very talented and is making waves at the first Grand Slam of the season. Wins over two top 12 Ranked opponents have been impressive to watch, but the challenges continue to get tougher into this Quarter Final as he takes on a genuine contender to win the title in Melbourne.
It won't just be Stefanos Tsitsipas who will test the young player, but a huge amount of the crowd are going to be firmly behind the higher Ranked player and that can be tough to deal with for someone who is not that experienced.
This will be another learning match for Jiri Lehecka, but he has to be pleased with the level of tennis he has been playing at the Australian Open and it may be good enough to challenge Stefanos Tsitsipas, even if the favourite ultimately prevails.
Serving well has been the key to this run to the Quarter Final and Jiri Lehecka is also an aggressive, come forward player who will look to get to the net and dare opponents to pass him. If a return player gets some rhythm on the pass, it could be a tough day in the office for Lehecka, but he has to feel his best approach to this match is putting Stefanos Tsitsipas under the gun and making him pass time and time again.
For all of the qualities the Greek player has, his return can be improved- Stefanos Tsitsipas has been returning well this month, but the wins have come at the Australian Open because of his efficiency when it comes to breaking serve. He is winning less than 40% of return points, but Tsitsipas is 18/34 when it comes to Break Points and a similar kind of level will mean he has every chance of winning this Quarter Final in fairly routine fashion.
Much of that would be down to the fact that Stefanos Tsitsipas is really dominating behind his serve and managing to play the biggest points very well. He was a little fortunate against Jannik Sinner in the last Round having saved 22 Break Points, but Tsitsipas had only dropped serve twice in three previous matches and had allowed a total of 15 Break Points across those three wins.
Like his opponent, Jiri Lehecka has used his serve to try and create pressure that leads to the Break chances and he has been pretty efficient with his performances when those points have been earned. He also showed tremendous resiliency to keep serving well in the win over Felix Auger-Aliassime in the Fourth Round and the Czech player can keep this one close as long as he looks after his own serve.
These two players met eleven months ago and it was Stefanos Tsitsipas who came from a set down to beat Jiri Lehecka. On that day he had a clear edge on the serve and I do think the higher Ranked player will eventually have too much for Jiri Lehecka again, but this is a high number of games to cover if the younger player is serving at the level he has been in this tournament and I will take the games with the underdog.
MY PICKS: Sebastian Korda @ 1.75 Coral (2 Units)
Jiri Lehecka + 6.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)
Elena Rybakina - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 Coral (2 Units)
Jessica Pegula - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 34-25, + 8.26 Units (118 Units Staked, + 7% Yield)
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