The NFL Championship Games take place on Sunday as we finally learn the names of the two teams that will be competing in the Super Bowl in a fortnight from now.
Both games have the look of being fascinating viewing for the neutrals and I do think both could come down to the wire.
San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: If you are being honest, it has felt like the Philadelphia Eagles (15-3) and San Francisco 49ers (15-4) have been on a collision course in the NFC. They have looked the two best team and strong wins in the Divisional Round means the two will meet in the NFC Championship Game on Sunday with a place in the Super Bowl on the line.
You have to really like the composition of both rosters and I do think it will be a very close, competitive game.
There are some weaknesses that the other side will be looking to exploit, but it would be a real surprise if the outcome is still not in doubt as we hit the two minute warning in the Fourth Quarter.
The 49ers have to be given credit for the way they have overcome injuries on both sides of the ball and Brock Purdy continues to surpass expectations. Mr Irrelevant will only be the fifth rookie Quarter Back to play in a Championship Game, but Purdy has to overcome the fact that the previous four were all beaten and struggled with Interceptions.
Kyle Shanahan is not expected to lean on his Quarter Back and put him in a dangerous position to turn the ball over. Instead the 49ers will continue to lean on the running game and will scheme up a number of misdirections and runs from different players to try and keep the Philadelphia Eagles off-balance.
Despite the improvements made on the Defensive Line, the Eagles have still had one or two issues stopping the run as they would like and that can only be encouraging news for San Francisco. Christian McCaffrey may be the lead Running Back, but Deebo Samuel is someone that the 49ers will line up in the backfield and he is capable of ripping off a big run or two at any time, which should keep Brock Purdy and company in front of the chains.
This is so important for the 49ers- Purdy can make quick throws to get the ball into the hands of his skill players, but the San Francisco 49ers will not want to be in a position where he has to allow routes to develop down field and then have to deal with the vicious Eagles pass rush.
Throwing against the Eagles Secondary is not going to be easy and the 49ers did have issues moving the ball consistently and scoring points against the Dallas Cowboys in the Divisional Round. As good as the Dallas Defensive unit have been, the Philadelphia Eagles have been even better and I think they will feel they can slow down the rookie Quarter Back as long as they can stay on top of the run game.
Brock Purdy will make the headlines as the rookie and the last selection in the NFL Draft, but he should be the first to tell anyone that listens how important the rest of the roster is. The San Francisco Defense turned the ball over a couple of times in the narrow win over Dallas last week and I do think that was vital to the outcome of the game and the 49ers will be looking to earn some extra possessions against Philadelphia in the NFC Championship Game.
A Defensive Line that has been very strong against the run will be key for the 49ers, but there is one big factor that has been mentioned in the build up and that is the playmaking ability of Jalen Hurts at Quarter Back for the Eagles. Mobile Quarter Backs can be very tough to play and it has bene something of a relative weakness for the 49ers, although it is a theory that has not been tested much at all this season.
Jalen Hurts could be the key for the Eagles- that additional running threat may just give the 49ers pause for thought up front and playing in front of the chains is huge for the Eagles against a very tough Defensive unit on the other sidelines.
Slowing down the San Francisco pass rush would be a bonus of staying in manageable down and distance, while it would also just open up some of the passing lanes. A strong end to the season has given the 49ers Secondary some confidence, but the Eagles have a lot of top options in the Receiving unit and I do think Philadelphia can win against the Defensive Backs they are facing.
Both of these teams have positive trends behind them, but the Eagles are 7-3 against the spread in the last ten games between them.
I think it will be close and there won't be much between the two teams, while turnovers are the one factor that you cannot really predict, yet will have a huge outcome in this one.
My feeling is that the home field advantage and the ability of Jalen Hurts to move the chains with his legs will ultimately make the difference for Philadelphia on the day. Both Defensive units are amongst the best in the NFL, while Brock Purdy may become the latest rookie Quarter Back to falter in the Championship Round of the PlayOffs.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: Most were expecting the AFC Championship Game to have to be played on a neutral field and tickets were already being sold on that basis, but no one told the Cincinnati Bengals (14-4) what script had been written. Instead they dominated the Buffalo Bills on the road in the Divisional Round and for a second season in a row they will head to Arrowhead Stadium for the AFC Championship Game.
Last season the Bengals upset the home team Kansas City Chiefs (15-3) as a big underdog and Joe Burrow has continued his dominance of this opponent since heading into the NFL by making it 3-0 against the Chiefs during the 2022 regular season. It is no wonder the spread is much closer for this AFC Championship Game compared with when they met last year, while the additional reason is the high ankle sprain Patrick Mahomes is dealing with.
The Kansas City Quarter Back has been in practice, but most feel he is going to be limited at best once the real game starts.
That is obviously far from ideal for the Chiefs who know how important the mobility of Patrick Mahomes is to his overall game and losing that, or being limited, has proven to be hard to overcome in previous games when suffering with an injury. He has been well protected by the Offensive Line, but a part of that success is down to being able to scramble away from the pressure and I do think Patrick Mahomes is not going to be as strong in that aspect of his play in the AFC Championship Game.
When these teams met last month, the Kansas City Chiefs were able to run the ball really well and they may have to lean on that approach again if Andy Reid feels his Quarter Back is not at full health. However, there has been an improvement in the performance of the Cincinnati Defensive Line when it comes to clamping down on the run as they have gotten healthier on this side of the ball.
Andy Reid is also a Head Coach that can lose interest in running the ball and it may be on Patrick Mahomes to lead the Kansas City Chiefs as he has done for much of his time with the team. The Quarter Back will have spaces in the Secondary to expose if he is able to put weight on his damaged ankle and Travis Kelce is expected to have a strong game for the Chiefs.
As I've said a few times, much will depend on how healthy Patrick Mahomes is and even a fully healthy Quarter Back might have had some issues beating Cincinnati.
He has yet to do that since Joe Burrow arrived in Cincinnati and the Bengals have momentum behind them after upsetting the Buffalo Bills on the road. The team are also getting healthier at the right time and the Offensive Line used the week between the Wild Card and Divisional PlayOff games to just work out how they were going to plug the gaps left by injured players.
That performance against the Buffalo Bills was really impressive from the Offensive Line which bullied the Bills up front and protected Joe Burrow when he stepped back to throw. The punishing moves to get Joe Mixon on track was huge in the win over Buffalo and stopping the run has been something of a weakness for the Kansas City Chiefs, which can only mean good things for the Cincinnati Bengals as they look to return to the Super Bowl.
If they can establish the run, Joe Burrow and the passing game should be able to purr into action. There are some top Receiving options for a Quarter Back that has thrived in playing big games both in College and in the pro ranks, while running the ball anywhere nearly as well as they did last week will mean Joe Burrow has a touch more time in the pocket to make the big plays downfield.
Kansas City's Secondary have played well down the stretch, but they won't have come up against too many teams with as dynamic playmakers as the Cincinnati Bengals.
I do like the chances of seeing a repeat rather than revenge in this AFC Championship Game after the Bengals upset the Chiefs in January 2022. While this won't be the same level of upset, the Bengals are the underdog again and Joe Burrow and company will play with the motivation of wanting to prove people wrong again.
Patrick Mahomes is not expected to be at full health, which is a blow for the Kansas City Chiefs, while this has been a team that have regularly been over-rated by the odds compilers this season.
Cincinnati are 5-1 against the spread in the last six between these teams, while they are also 13-2-1 against the spread in their last sixteen against a team with a winning record.
The Chiefs have been struggling against the numbers and they are a surprising 1-8-1 against the spread in their last ten at home. A poor record against the Bengals will be a mental obstacle to overcome and I think the road underdog can find a way to reach back to back Super Bowls with a victory at Arrowhead Stadium in the AFC Championship Game in consecutive years.
MY PICKS: Philadelphia Eagles - 2.5 Points @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Cincinnati Bengals + 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
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