We are already two weeks into the season, but that is usually a time when I would take a look and see how players have used the time off between tournaments, while others are overcoming early fitness issues and mentally preparing for the first Grand Slam of the season.
Over the last several months I have taken a bit of time away from the Tennis Picks as I have made a readjustment to how I am identifying selections. I believe I was making one or two mistakes with the selection process and that has to be improved going into the 2023 season after the drop between the 2021 and 2022 successes.
I will have a fuller post for Day 2 with a few thoughts on the draw at the Australian Open, but the nature of the event and the time difference between Melbourne and London means the focus in this thread is on the Day 1 Picks as the opening Slam of what could be another intriguing tennis season begins on Monday.
Jannik Sinner - 8.5 games v Kyle Edmund: It isn't that long ago that Kyle Edmund had taken over the top British player on the ATP Tour, but injury has really pushed him back over the last couple of years. Limited time spent on the Tour means Kyle Edmund is not well outside the top 500 in the World Rankings and the next twelve months is going to be a challenging time for the recently turned 28 year old as he looks to rebuild.
Protected Ranking benefits will mean Kyle Edmund can enter some of the bigger tournaments and putting a few wins together will really see him rocket up the World Rankings and avoid having to completely 'start again'. However, Edmund will quickly have realised that the Tour has not stopped in his absence and a new group of talented players have deepened the ATP pool, which will contribute to the difficulty of getting his career back on track.
Two losses in opening matches in a couple of ATP events held in Adelaide will have given Kyle Edmund an indication of the kind of gap he has to bridge having been beaten by two players Ranked inside the top 30.
Kinder draws would certainly help Edmund as he looks to pick up the Ranking points while being able to use the Protected Ranking to enter the main Tour events, but that has not been the case in Melbourne as he prepares to face Jannik Sinner for a second time this month.
The Italian reached the Quarter Final at both the Australian Open and US Open last year and he was only beaten in an epic five setter by eventual winner Carlos Alcaraz at the latter event. The positives of the performance from that day will have Jannik Sinner enter this Grand Slam event with big expectations, even in the loaded top half of the draw which features the likes of Daniil Medvedev and Rafael Nadal, the two Finalists from 2022.
Jannik Sinner will know that the serve has to be a little more reliable if he is going to become a Grand Slam Champion, but he is certainly progressing towards that. His return of serve can be very effective on the hard courts, as Kyle Edmund found out a couple of weeks ago, and I think Sinner is going to be able to exert enough pressure to break down a talented, but match rusty opponent.
Making 'easier' work of the early Rounds of a Grand Slam is another area in which Jannik Sinner can find improvement as he continues moving up the World Rankings and I do expect him to remain focused in this one. He can sometimes throw in a bad service game or two and that makes life more challenging, but Sinner dominated behind the serve against Edmund in Adelaide and he should be able to largely get on the front foot and dictate rallies in this one too.
This is a big spread, make no mistake about that, but I think Jannik Sinner has shown he has the kind of numbers on serve and return which can see him break down the Kyle Edmund game again, and come through relatively unscathed.
MY PICKS: Jannik Sinner - 8.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Cameron Norrie - 7.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev - 8.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Cori Gauff - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Maria Sakkari - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Madison Keys - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
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