We are down to the final four of both the men's and women's Singles event at the Australian Open and there is every chance we are going to get two quality Finals from here.
Novak Djokovic is the clear favourite to win the men's event, but Stefanos Tsitsipas is a looming threat and I think those two would produce an ideal end to the first Grand Slam of the 2023 season.
The women's event looks much more open- in one Semi Final we have two former major winners squaring off, but the other has a surprising player making their first Grand Slam Semi Final appearance against one who has long been considered a Champion in the making that has come up short.
Elena Rybakina winning is perhaps the best outcome for fans on the WTA Tour- there are simply not many multiple time Slam Champions still playing regularly and Rybakina winning two of the last three Grand Slams may come through to be the rival that Iga Swiatek needs. A win over Swiatek in this tournament and then going on to win it would only build a rivalry that is desperately needed on the WTA side of the Tour and I think Elena Rybakina has all of the tools to be a future World Number 1 and to add many a Slam to the Wimbledon trophy she took home last July.
However, in saying that, I do think someone like Aryna Sabalenka could go strength to strength when she is able to get over the hump and win her first Grand Slam title. Her overall record at this level is actually pretty poor and so it does feel the time may be running out for Sabalenka to do that and push her career forward from there.
Day 10 proved to be another mixed bag for the Tennis Picks, but it could have been a lot worse after the disappointing results through the Quarter Final Round.
With just six matches left at the Australian Open this year, I would be extremely disappointed to go 2-4 or worse and dent the numbers produced from the tournament so far. In reality I am always aiming for six out of six winners to end the first Slam of the year and build some confidence to take into a very long season.
Elena Rybakina - 3.5 games v Victoria Azarenka: It might say 22 next to her name in terms of the Seeding at the Australian Open, but Elena Rybakina is the current Wimbledon Champion and would have entered 2023 as a comfortable top ten Ranked player if that tournament had not had its Ranking points removed by the Tours.
That came in light of the decision to ban players from Belarusian and Russian nationalities from competing in the tournament and so this is a Semi Final that could not have taken place at Wimbledon last July. Victoria Azarenka was not able to compete there, but has found some of her old form in Melbourne where she is a two time former Champion having upset Jessica Pegula in the Quarter Final.
It is a win that has to give Victoria Azarenka a lot of confidence and the women's tournament looks wide open for each of the four players remaining. This is the Semi Final featuring the only two remaining players with at least one Grand Slam title in the bag and so the winner between Victoria Azarenka and Elena Rybakina may enter the Final as the favourite with the experience edge alone.
Neither of these players had much momentum behind them from the warm up tournaments, but they do have a Champion mentality which has proved to be crucial for them in Melbourne. Elena Rybakina has beaten the World Number 1 in very fine fashion, and both Rybakina and Victoria Azarenka have two wins over players currently Ranked inside the top 13.
I cannot easily dismiss Victoria Azarenka's chances after the strong win over Jessica Pegula, but that was also a victory over a World Number 3 that has never reached the Semi Final of any Grand Slam. Stats like that underline why there is a perceived weakness at the top of the women's game, but you still have to beat the player in front of you and Victoria Azarenka did that in fine enough form to be respected, even at this stage of her career.
However, I do think Elena Rybakina is the rightful favourite as someone who continues to showcase her development into one of the premier WTA players around. Winning a second Grand Slam in seven months would certainly mean the Kazakhstan player will enter a lot of tournaments right amongst the favourites to win and Rybakina may also be ready to build a rivalry with Iga Swiatek for the top position on the Tour.
Like a few players before her, Elena Rybakina possesses a dominant serve- you can't put it up there with Serena Williams' serve right now, but it is a weapon that has proven to be essential to her game. If she serves as well as she can, there isn't a player on the Tour that can beat Elena Rybakina, but the key for her will be to find the consistency to produce week after week.
The serve has been a massive threat for Elena Rybakina throughout this tournament and it can be the key to breaking this Semi Final open. In her sole previous meeting with Victoria Azarenka in Indian Wells last March, Elena Rybakina only offered up a single Break Point in a straight sets win and she won 77% of her service points played on the day.
Victoria Azarenka's first serve can help her get in front of a rally, but she does not have the most effective second serve and she will not earn as many cheap points as Elena Rybakina is expected to in this Semi Final.
The return edge is with Azarenka, but I am not sure she will be given the time to really try and impose that on this match and I do give Elena Rybakina an edge in earning a place in the Saturday Final.
Elena Rybakina could become a truly exceptional player if she can find a stronger return game, but it has been plenty strong this week in Melbourne and I think she beats the veteran in a fun, but ultimately in a largely dominant display.
Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 games v Magda Linette: Both of these players won in straight sets on Day 10 at the Australian Open, but Aryna Sabalenka was a clear favourite in her Quarter Final. That makes her win no less impressive, although the headlines will have been written by Magda Linette who continues making surprising progress at Melbourne Park.
If someone had told you that a women's Polish player will make the Semi Final at the Australian Open two weeks ago, you would have had a lot of money on that being Iga Swiatek. Instead of the World Number 1, Magda Linette has made a number of firsts in her career at the tournament- it has been the first time she has reached the second week of a Grand Slam, the first Quarter Final at a Slam and now a first Semi Final at a Slam.
She will not want the run to end and even the poor head to head with Aryna Sabalenka is not likely to upset Magda Linette considering she beat Karolina Pliskova on Wednesday having lost seven of the previous nine against the Czech player. A lot of those losses had been in one-sided fashion too so the fact the four sets played against Aryna Sabalenka have ended 6-1 (twice), 6-2 and 6-3 may not be as big a factor as you would expect.
Ultimately the pressure is on Aryna Sabalenka who has long been considered a Grand Slam Champion in the making and found a way to falter when the winning line has approached. Despite the obvious qualities, Sabalenka has yet to make the Final of any Grand Slam and has lost all four Semi Final matches played at this level, a fact that will not have been lost on her.
Like her opponent, Aryna Sabalenka has surprisingly not made it to the Quarter Final at the Australian Open before and she has led in two of her previous three Semi Final matches at Grand Slams before losing. Having come close to reaching a Final, I expect some nerves to be at play compared with Magda Linette who may feel she has nothing to lose having completely moved past her expectations here.
The lower Ranked player is going to have to serve well and see whether she can build some pressure on her opponent in this Semi Final. So far, Magda Linette has been able to look after her second serve and that has led to dropping serve just ten times in her five wins at the Australian Open so far, while then allowing her to take a few more risks on the return.
Serving well has to be the key against an aggressive Aryna Sabalenka who looks to attack that shot constantly.
Aryna Sabalenka has been dominating on the return throughout this month and has pushed her numbers to winning 50% of return points played in the tournament. That is an incredible level and maintaining that for seven matches will never be easy, but Sabalenka is playing with a real confidence and has not really been pushed in any of her matches in the draw.
She has not played the same level of opponents as Magda Linette, but Aryna Sabalenka also won a tournament ahead of the Australian Open and there is no doubting her level right now. The serve was something of a hindrance at times last year, but Sabalenka looks to have gotten control of the second delivery and that has rebuilt the confidence in that shot and has led to losing serve just five times in five matches.
Donna Vekic had her chances in the Quarter Final, but I expect Aryna Sabalenka to largely contain the threat in this Semi Final as she did in her last match. The power and aggression should favour the World Number 5 and I think Aryna Sabalenka will make her way into a maiden Slam Final with a strong victory in the second Semi Final to be played on Thursday.
MY PICKS: Elena Rybakina - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 39-30, + 7.04 Units (134 Units Staked, + 5.25% Yield)
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