The weather is going to settle down in Melbourne over the next few days, but it was a very strange day for the fans and players on Day 2 at the tournament.
To have a heat delay during the day is perhaps not that surprising considering the temperatures we can see in Melbourne, but on the same day there was a significant rain delay and it means a number of First Round matches have to be held over until Wednesday.
One problem for the organisers of the tournament is that Melbourne Park could be experiencing another extremely wet day- while three courts have roofs attached and can keep going, the tournament structure could be severely impacted. For starters, the majority of the matches scheduled for the show courts are Second Round matches from the top half of the draw and a really wet day will mean some players are through to the Third Round while others have not completed their First Round outings.
It could mean Day 4 is a very busy, while some of the Second Round matches involving players in the bottom half of the draw could be pushed into Day 5. This is far from ideal for those having to wait to complete matches as it could mean having to play on three consecutive days, which is especially difficult for the men playing best of five set matches.
That is something that will have to be considered when making selections going forward, although the biggest names will be happy enough as they remain scheduled to play on the main show courts, which will not be impacted by rain delays.
Day 1 was a strong one, but my Tennis Picks went 1-1 on Day 2, although two players are part way through their matches.
Thanasi Kokkinakis looks in a very strong position with a two set lead and already up a break in the third set, while Roberto Bautista Agut's match with Joao Sousa is still in the early stages of the second set.
On Day 3 the Second Round is scheduled to be played and you can read my Picks below.
Rafael Nadal - 7.5 games v Mackenzie McDonald: After admitting he was 'vulnerable' in the tough First Round draw given to him, Rafael Nadal rallied at just the right time to avoid becoming the first defending Champion dumped out in the opening Round of the following Australian Open in a couple of generations.
It was not always plain sailing for Rafael Nadal against the talented youngster Jack Draper and he even had a bit of a back and forth with his team as he struggled to get going. A poor second set saw the match levelled, but Nadal's vulnerabilities were not able to be completely exposed as Draper was let down by his own physical problems.
Rafael Nadal still feels it is going to take something special to defend the title he won twelve months ago, but he will be happier with a win under his belt. That means having a couple more days to get into this tournament, while also being able to build some rhythm ahead of this Second Round match on Day 3 at the tournament.
This should be a more comfortable match for Rafael Nadal- in the First Round there was a feeling that Jack Draper's aggressiveness and big game could be a real problem for the Spaniard, but Mackenzie McDonald is not expected to be as successful with that kind of approach.
Instead the American has long been a player that the top players feel comfortable facing with the rhythm you can build when facing McDonald, and that is summed up by his 1-11 record against top 10 opponents on the hard courts through his career. The win over Brandon Nakashima will have given Mackenzie McDonald some real confidence, but he had to spend over four hours on the court and that is going to have a physical impact on the lower Ranked player, something that will be tested and pushed by Nadal in this Second Round match.
Mackenzie McDonald can force opponents to have to hit an extra shot or two with his defensive skills, but this feels like a match that is going to be dictated by Rafael Nadal's racquet.
I do think Rafael Nadal is still nowhere near the kind of fitness level that he would have hoped to have had in Melbourne, but I think he will appreciate this match up. It should mean he can continue to build into the Australian Open and I do think he can cover a line that would have been at least two games higher if there were not the fitness concerns around the top Seed in the draw.
Karen Khachanov - 4.5 games v Jason Kubler: The run to the Semi Final at the US Open underlines the kind of talent that Karen Khachanov has, but he has not really found the consistency on the Tour that he would have hoped for.
He made a strong start here in Melbourne, where Karen Khachanov has had successes before, and I do think he will be able to handle the occasion. In January 2020 he faced Nick Kyrgios at the Australian Open and the crowd will never be as rabid as they get when Kyrgios is on the court so this match should feel serene in comparison for the Russian player.
Jason Kubler will be well backed, but he has a significant talent gap to bridge to Karen Khachanov.
The Australian has made a strong start to 2023, but it is a very small sample of matches played and the overall numbers from the last twelve months suggests Jason Kubler will do well to win two sets in this best of five set match. The return of serve is the strength for Kubler, but this is a big serve that is going to be in front of him and that only puts pressure on the lower Ranked player to serve at his very best.
Karen Khachanov is not really a player that has the best return numbers, but he can be aggressive on this side of the net and that could exert the pressure to break through and win this match.
I am expecting Khachanov to win this one three or four sets and that should be good enough to find the breaks of serve to cover this line.
MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal - 7.5 Games @ 1.72 Coral (2 Units)
Karen Khachanov - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Frances Tiafoe - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Denis Shapovalov - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Jannik Sinner - 8.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Cameron Norrie - 7.5 Games @ 1.85 Coral (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Maria Sakkari - 5.5 Games @ 2.05 Coral (2 Units)
Victoria Azarenka - 5.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet365 (2 Units)
Coco Gauff - 4.5 Games @ 1.95 Coral (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 6-2, + 5.96 Units (16 Units Staked, + 37.25% Yield)
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