The Miami Masters has been a mixed bag of results, but I have been hoping for a touch more fortune than received earlier in the tournament.
Another slight. winning day is one thing, but I am looking for the big day which may still produce a winning tournament for the Tennis Picks before the clay court season gets underway.
Daniil Medvedev-Hubert Hurkacz over 21.5 games: I have to admit that I was pretty surprised to see Daniil Medvedev as such a big favourite to beat the defending Miami Masters Champion in this Quarter Final. Another win would see Daniil Medvedev restore his spot as the World Number 1 having lost that at the end of the tournament at Indian Wells, while he has played well in Miami, but I have yet to be fully convinced that the Russian is at his very best.
He benefited from what looked to be a tired Jenson Brooksby in the Fourth Round, and while the numbers have been impressive, this is a step up in terms of quality of opponent compare with the players that Daniil Medvedev has beaten so far.
Daniil Medvedev is serving well and has held in 93% of the service games played, and I have to say that the return of serve has been at a level that we have come to expect from him. Over the course of the 2022 season, Daniil Medvedev has not returned as well as he would have liked, but he has broken in 37% of return games played in his three matches in Miami.
However, this is a Quarter Final against Hubert Hurkacz who won the tournament here last year and who has held in 94% of service games played in the Miami Masters in 2022. The three wins have not been in as impressive fashion as Daniil Medvedev has produced, but Hubert Hurkacz is clearly confident in the conditions and has backed up the serve by breaking in 37% of return games played too.
It certainly suggests he can push a player that Hubert Hurkacz has pushed in their three previous matches. Hubert Hurkacz beat this opponent at Wimbledon last year, but their two hard court matches after that were both won by Daniil Medvedev, although those both needed three sets to separate the players.
The Polish player has held serve in 93% of his service games played against Daniil Medvedev in their two hard court matches, while Daniil Medvedev has done the same. This has me leaning towards this Quarter Final surpassing the total games line with both players serving really well in Miami and I am not anticipating a lot of breaks of serve.
Another three setter cannot be ruled out either and I do think both of these players have been able to contain the threat from the other in their three previous matches. An early break could put the cover under threat, but I do think this could be a serve-orientated match with very little between Daniil Medvedev and Hubert Hurkacz again.
Carlos Alcaraz - 4.5 games v Miomir Kecmanovic: The improvements in the tennis are being seen in leaps and bounds for those following Carlos Alcaraz and I do think the young Spaniard could be ready to have a huge impact in the upcoming Grand Slam at the French Open.
It is the Slams where the casual fan will begin to take notice of Carlos Alcaraz, but for most this is a player that has shown he is ready to win big titles. His performances over the last couple of weeks in big Masters events on the hard courts shows Alcaraz is becoming an all court player, if he wasn't already, and he is a big favourite to reach the Semi Final in Miami.
He didn't panic when trailing Stefanos Tsitsipas in the Fourth Round and Carlos Alcaraz looks like a player who believes he should be competing and beating the very best on the Tour. It won't be long before he is the latest Spaniard to reach the top ten of the World Rankings and the performances in Miami have been impressive.
The overall numbers on the hard courts in 2022 have been strong and Carlos Alcaraz has held 96% of his service games played here in Miami. The stand out reason for his successes has been the impressive, aggressive return which has put a lot of pressure on opponents and Alcaraz is backing up his serving by breaking in 31% of games in this tournament, a number which is remarkably down on his overall break percentage on the surface this season.
Miomir Kecmanovic is another player having considerable success on the hard courts this season, although his performances have been more surprising than the young Spaniard's performances. The win over Indian Wells Champion Taylor Fritz will have given Miomir Kecmanovic more confidence, while he has held 93% of his service games in this tournament and broken in 23% of return games.
It is the advantage on the return which makes me favour Carlos Alcaraz to win and cover this big spread.
As the tournament has progressed, Miomir Kecmanovic has been riding the margins more than Carlos Alcaraz who has been much more consistent in Miami. The serve has remained strong when Kecmanovic has faced top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts over the last twelve months, but he has not nearly been as effective on the return and I think there will be plenty pressure put on him by Carlos Alcaraz.
I have mentioned that Carlos Alcaraz needs to find a bit of improvement on his serve on this surface to make his life easier, but it has not been an issue when the Spaniard has faced those Ranked outside the top 20 on this surface. I expect this to be close for a while, but Carlos Alcaraz can build the pressure and that may see him eventually break down the Miomir Kecmanovic game and cover this spread on his way to the Semi Final.
Naomi Osaka - 3.5 games v Belinda Bencic: This looks like it has the possibility of being a really high quality Semi Final as Naomi Osaka and Belinda Bencic meet in Miami.
Both of these players have been in very good form in the tournament and both Naomi Osaka and Belinda Bencic are very confident hard court players. Their numbers over the course of 2022 have been impressive, but there does seem to be a confidence about Osaka which led to her winning multiple Slam titles on this surface at both the Australian Open and US Open.
The conditions have been pretty good for both players, but Naomi Osaka may be getting a little bit more out of the serve. That could be key to the outcome of the match considering how well both players are returning, but it does feel like it is a level that Naomi Osaka can maintain more than Belinda Bencic.
You can't ignore the fact that Belinda Bencic has a very strong record against Naomi Osaka, including winning all three of their previous matches on the hard courts. However, the last of those matches was played back in 2019 at the US Open and I do think Naomi Osaka is much improved these days as long as she can hold herself together mentally.
It feels like a tournament in which Naomi Osaka has felt much calmer, although the issue with backing a player like this is that you don't always know what you are going to get. Belinda Bencic is a steadier player and is playing really well this week, but I think Naomi Osaka can use her serve to keep the scoreboard pressure on the Swiss player and ultimately lead to a win and a cover of this spread mark.
Iga Swiatek - 5.5 games v Jessica Pegula: The soon to be new World Number 1 on the WTA Tour has clearly been inspired with the top spot in the Rankings up for grabs. Even before Ashleigh Barty decided to hang up her racquet, Iga Swiatek had been motoring towards the very peak of the WTA Tour and winning the title in Indian Wells will have given her plenty of confidence.
It is a confidence which has carried over to Miami where Iga Swiatek has won all of her matches in impressive fashion.
The latest to fall at the feet of her consistency was Petra Kvitova in the Quarter Final and the Polish player has yet to drop more than three games in any set played.
Jessica Pegula has won their previous match on the Tour, although she was a little fortunate that day in 2019 and I do think Iga Swiatek is a much stronger player on the hard courts than she was. The other benefit for Jessica Pegula is that she has only played eleven games in her last two matches to progress through to the Semi Final so should be in a strong shape to compete with the best player on the Tour.
Injuries have helped Jessica Pegula move past Anhelina Kalinina and Paula Badosa, while her wins over Sloane Stephens and Elena Rybakina have to be respected. However, those were close wins and Iga Swiatek is playing at a level above those players right now, which is likely going to put Jessica Pegula under pressure.
Her numbers in 2022 have not really been that impressive, although Jessica Pegula has served pretty well and that is going to be a key for her. If she can keep some sort of pressure on Iga Swiatek, this could be a competitive Semi Final, but I find it hard to ignore how well Swiatek has been returning serve on this surface and I think that will see her win another match by a good margin.
Jessica Pegula has not really returned as well as she would have liked so far this season and I think Iga Swiatek can overcome the fact she played late Wednesday night to win this match and cover another wide mark.
MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev-Hubert Hurkacz Over 21.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Carlos Alcaraz - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Naomi Osaka - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jessica Pegula - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Miami Update: 24-25, - 8.78 Units (98 Units Staked, - 8.96% Yield)
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