It would be an understatement to say Friday night was frustrating.
To put it bluntly, it was a downright piss take- if someone had told me every Pick had been cursed, I honestly would have believed it.
I don't care if I get things wrong- I adjust and try and bounce back, but I am annoyed that things seemed to be so against the selections from the 'x factor' point of view.
Some were horrible Picks, those you end up regretting pretty quickly and not always down to the outcome. One of the adjustments I have made is to try not to pick 'bad' players that are artificially high in the Rankings or simply over-performing and thus being asked to cover big spreads, but I made that mistake with Sorana Cirstea who duly responded by winning two games.
Whatever, that one is on me.
But what can you do when a player is up 4-0, 40/0 and somehow only wins that set 6-4? Elena Rybakina beat her opponent in almost every metric bar the scoreboard and missed the cover by one game. She had more break points in more return games, but didn't manage to get out of one service game when facing a break point and ultimately made safe passage through to the Third Round, but without covering.
Later in the day more statistical anomalies seemed to be haunting my plays... Grigor Dimitrov was down 7-3 in games, despite losing just 4 more points, while Madison Keys had won 7 more points and was at 9-9 in games.
Oh, and Keys had been leading 6-3, 1-0, 40/0 and also found a way to allow herself to be broken before missing another break point and of course allowing her opponent to break twice from two chances earned.
It's a day that has irritated me off beyond belief, but mainly because the results largely went against the numbers and that hurts more than when it's just a bad day in the office. Bad picks can be criticised, but bad luck is a killer when it adds up as it did on Friday.
But then you have to move forward and not allow that negative spiral to overtake the thought process. I have always said I don't mind if a few stats go against me if I feel the Pick is the one I would have made any other time.
Avoiding those I instantly regret is the key and I think I have gotten better at that, but winning Picks is the only thing that really matters.
Daniil Medvedev - 4.5 games v Andy Murray: Being down at World Number 85 means relying on Wild Card entries into some of the bigger events on the Tour, although Andy Murray would earn direct entry into Grand Slam tournaments. He can invest his all into this Masters event in Miami with the expectation that Andy Murray will not be playing competitive tennis until after the clay court season when the Tour moves onto the grass, a surface on which Murray could still be a real danger to almost any player he faces.
It has not really been the case on the hard courts in 2022 and Andy Murray has continued to struggle for the consistency he would have liked to display. A win over Federico Delbonis in the First Round was solid enough, but there is no doubting how much higher the level is expected to be when he takes on the Number 1 Seed in the Miami tournament.
Daniil Medvedev lost his grip on World Number 1 last week in Indian Wells, but the chances are that he will return to that position before the clay court season when Novak Djokovic is expected to return as countries lower their criteria for allowing athletes to compete. It is important for Medvedev to produce a stronger tournament than the last Masters considering his usual disdain for the clay, although there is a feeling that he is playing under some pressure as a Russian citizen.
The hard court numbers have remained strong in 2022, although not quite to the level that Daniil Medvedev produced in 2021. Daniil Medvedev is still serving very well, but he will be the first to admit that he will want to offer more resistance in the return games having had a slight drop off on this side of his tennis.
Andy Murray has a mixed record when playing top 50 Ranked opponents on the hard courts in 2022, but it has been miserable when going up against a top 20 Ranked opponent. He has lost all four matches against this opponents, while Murray has struggled to get into return games and managed to break in just shy of 6% of return games played.
It is a number that is not going to cut it against Daniil Medvedev and even a look at how Andy Murray has played against top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts over the last twelve months offers little encouragement. The British player has broken in 14% of return games played in that time and Daniil Medvedev did crush Andy Murray when they met on the hard courts in Brisbane in January 2018.
The Russian has gone from strength to strength since then and I think Daniil Medvedev can bounce back from a relative early exit at Indian Wells by winning this Second Round match impressively.
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 4.5 games v JJ Wolf: For most players on the Tour, a run to two Semi Finals and the Final of another tournament would be seen as a good start to the season. Stefanos Tsitsipas has bigger ambitions than most though and he may see it as a failure that he has yet to add another title to his collection, while the early loss in Indian Wells would have stung.
The hard court numbers are some way below the levels he has reached over the last couple of seasons, but Miami offers one last chance to better those before moving on the clay courts. In recent years Stefanos Tsitsipas has been a real threat on the red dirt, but he would love to take a confidence boosting tournament into the start of the run towards the French Open and just restore any lost belief in his own tennis.
It might be harsh to suggest that will be the case, but Stefanos Tsitsipas has raised expectations around his tenns over the last couple of years and will not want to feel like he is stuck in this current spot. And while the numbers are not as impressive as we know he can produce, Stefanos Tsitsipas is still a very effective player on the hard courts and his Second Round opponent will be well aware of that.
Stefanos Tsitsipas and JJ Wolf met last month in Acapulco and it was the former who won their match for the loss of just a single game.
No doubt that will have been a painful lesson for the young American, but I do think JJ Wolf will be more competitive in Miami. JJ Wolf has already won three matches here without dropping a set, so will feel he has the conditions under control, and he has produced plenty more wins in recent hard court events in Acapulco, Indian Wells and Phoenix.
Many of those wins have come against players lower down the World Rankings, but wins are important for the mentality of any tennis player.
However, I can't ignore the fact that JJ Wolf has struggled to be competitive when facing top 50 Ranked opponents on the hard courts- his serve has been a little vulnerable in those matches, while the 10% of return games in which he has broken is not really going to cut it.
Home support will help, and I think JJ Wolf will be more competitive than he was in Acapulco, but Stefanos Tsitsipas should have enough in his overall tennis to win this match and cover the spread put in front of him.
MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Carlos Alcaraz - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Irina-Camelia Begu + 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Naomi Osaka - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Miami Update: 8-11, - 9 Units (38 Units Staked, - 23.68% Yield)
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