Friday proved to be another largely frustrating day, but one in which I thought the Tennis Picks were performing better than the final outcome.
It might be down to the fact that a couple of the losing selections essentially got to the hill before slipping over and failed to get over the line- Karolina Pliskova led 6-2, 5-2 before losing, while Miomir Kecmanovic was up 6-4, 4-2 and also was unable to cover the spread as he blew the second set before rallying.
That hurts, but again I make the point that I think the selections were correct and ultimately failed on a bit of misfortune rather than being outright poor picks.
And I promise to not make a Pick when Andy Murray faces Taro Daniel again having fallen to 0-3 in those selections alone this season.
Carlos Alcaraz - 3.5 games v Mackenzie McDonald: Scheduling your season in the right way is just as important to the top players on the Tour as the ability to produce their best tennis in the big moments. Over the years Dominic Thiem is an example of someone who has had to change their schedule to make sure they are ready to compete throughout the long season and I do think it is something that Carlos Alcaraz is going to have to figure out in the years ahead.
The young, extremely talented Spaniard is clearly going to very comfortable on the clay courts and I think it is no surprise that he leant towards the South American Golden Swing between the Australian Open and the Indian Wells Masters. To be fair, Carlos Alcaraz only entered the one tournament in Rio and he went on and one the ATP 500 event, while he has also reached a career best World Ranking of Number 19.
Last season he also played in South America on the clay courts before losing a couple of quick matches in Acapulco and Miami on the hard courts, while he also lost his first match at Indian Wells. A couple of those losses came against Alexander Zverev and Andy Murray, but Carlos Alcaraz is a very solid hard court player and I think the biggest challenge for him is how to handle the move from the clay onto this surface.
Indian Wells may prove to be best way to get accustomed to the hard courts over the next three weeks before the entire Tour moves onto the clay courts. Carlos Alcaraz should appreciate the slower court speed, while the youngster has held 81% of service games played on the hard courts over the last twelve months, while breaking in almost 28% of return games in the same time span.
Carlos Alcaraz was playing well at the Australian Open, but he will have to be focused from the start of this one against a comfortable hard court player in Mackenzie McDonald. The American was a straight sets winner in the First Round, so is comfortable in the conditions, while Mackenzie McDonald reached the Quarter Final in Dubai last month.
However, it should be pointed out that Mackenzie McDonald has weaker numbers behind both serve and return compared with Carlos Alcaraz and I expect that to make the difference in this Second Round match. The serve is a little more vulnerable when McDonald faces top 50 Ranked opponents on the hard courts, although his 5-5 record in 2022 has to be respected.
A deeper look over the last twelve months shows that Mackenzie McDonald has struggled with his return against top 50 Ranked opponents on the hard courts and I think that leaves his serve a little more vulnerable too.
A first match on the surface since January is a slight concern, but Carlos Alcaraz is extremely talented and a progressive player that should have too much for this level of opponent.
Rafael Nadal - 4.5 games v Sebastian Korda: The future is looking like it could be very bright for Sebastian Korda, but the young player could be given another lesson by current top star Rafael Nadal. These two met at the French Open two years ago and Rafael Nadal crushed Sebastian Korda, who admitted before the match that Nadal was an idol that he had long admired.
I don't think Rafael Nadal will be as dominant in this match as he was on his favoured surface in Paris, but the Spaniard has taken full advantage of being the only member of the long valued 'Big Three' of the ATP Tour that is currently played consistently. Roger Federer is injured and Novak Djokovic's problems are well documented, but Rafael Nadal has still had to do his own work on the court after a serious injury in 2021.
Some thought it could be a career ending injury for Rafael Nadal, but he has returned very successfully in 2022 and is still unbeaten. Title wins in Melbourne and Acapulco have sandwiched the twenty-first Grand Slam title at the Australian Open and Nadal is playing at arguably his best level on the hard courts.
The serve has been effective, but it is the 32% of return games in which he has found a break of serve which has been very impressive and powered the successes Rafael Nadal has had.
Sebastian Korda has had some mixed performances on the hard courts in 2022 and his serve is one that can be a little vulnerable, which is an area that Nadal can exploit. Like his hero, Sebastian Korda has been very good on the return of serve, but it will be tough to break down the Rafael Nadal serve if he is chasing this match.
Those return numbers have also taken a considerable dip when Sebastian Korda has faced players higher up the World Rankings and I think that is where he has a lot of room to improve. While he has been competitive in matches through sheer talent, a player like Rafael Nadal has already shown Sebastian Korda the kind of work you need to get through to challenge him and I think the younger player is still going to up short at the big moments.
The conditions at Indian Wells suit Rafael Nadal and he has had strong results at this Masters event, while the form of the Spaniard is second to none. The tennis should be easy on the eye throughout this match, but I think Rafael Nadal finds the breaks of serve that he will need to cover this handicap spread.
Daniel Evans - 5.5 games v Federico Coria: Some of the early performances in 2022 were very encouraging for Daniel Evans and he looked on course to improve his career best World Ranking and perhaps even crack the top 20 for the first time. Consistency, or lack thereof, has always been the big question next to the Daniel Evans name and some of the early optimism may have faded.
Early losses in a couple of big events held in the Middle East won't have helped, but Daniel Evans is a big favourite to win his opening match at the Indian Wells Masters.
He was beaten in the Third Round when playing here in the Autumn in 2021, but the bare minimum expected of him in this tournament is to match that performance. This is the first match Daniel Evans will have played here compared with Federico Coria who had to win in the First Round to earn his spot next to Evans in the draw, but that doesn't cover up the issues Coria has had on the hard courts.
Federico Coria beat Pablo Cuevas in the First Round, but over the last twelve months he has compiled a 3-9 record on the hard courts. The Argentine is on course to break the top 60 of the World Rankings for the first time and earning automatic entry into the biggest events on the Tour will be a real boost for him.
The stronger results have come on the clay courts and Federico Coria has struggled to really compete at an effective level on this surface. He has only held 64% of his service games played on the hard courts over the last twelve months and that puts Coria under an immense amount of pressure on the surface.
However, Federico Coria has not been good enough returning on this surface with breaks in just shy of 19% of return games played and even the slower conditions in Indian Wells may not be enough to change the outcome of this match. Daniel Evans is not going to overpower Federico Coria, but I do think he can exert enough pressure on the return having broken in 21% of return games played over the last twelve months on the hard courts.
This is a very big spread, but Daniel Evans has shown he can blow past opponents of a certain level and I think that will be the case in this Second Round match.
Naomi Osaka - 4.5 games v Veronika Kudermetova: After being out of action since the Australian Open, it was perhaps no surprise that Naomi Osaka needed a little bit of court time to find her rhythm. She would have hoped for a much easier First Round match than having to face Sloane Stephens just a couple of weeks out from a title win, but the way Naomi Osaka rolled through the last two sets has to be highly encouraging.
Seeing Naomi Osaka in the First Round took some getting used to as the former World Number 1 has slipped down the World Rankings. The only hope I have is that she is ready to compete on a week to week basis and Naomi Osaka can get back amongst the very best players on the Tour, which is her rightful place, but it will take some hard work to do so.
Having a strong Indian Wells will help and Naomi Osaka continues to produce some big numbers on the hard courts, which will make her very dangerous for every single other player in the draw.
It is Veronika Kudermetova who has to face Naomi Osaka as the Seeded player that received a Bye through to the Second Round. She reached the Final in Dubai, one of the big events on the Tour, and that will offer Veronika Kudermetova, although she will also know how much she will have to lift her level to compete with someone who has won multiple Grand Slam titles on this surface.
Veronika Kudermetova also reached the Final in Melbourne in the build towards the Australian Open, but it has been a case of all or nothing more often than not in 2022. Early losses have also been a part of the season for Kudermetova, while her numbers suggest those two runs to the Final mentioned are an overachievement rather than something sustainable on current form.
Her return game has plenty of room for improvement and I think Veronika Kudermetova will struggle to get a lot of joy from Naomi Osaka. After the slow start against Sloane Stephens, Osaka began to look really good behind serve and I think that shot will lay the foundation for a clear win in the Second Round.
Naomi Osaka will be the first to admit that her own return game can be improved to make life that much easier for her, but I think she can build the pressure on her opponent and that can lead to the breaks needed to cover this spread.
Maria Sakkari - 4.5 games v Katerina Siniakova: The Australian Open ended relatively disappointingly for Maria Sakkari, but in previous years a run to the Fourth Round might have been seen as a positive. That only goes to show how much Maria Sakkari has improved on the Tour and she has followed up that run Down Under with some strong performances on the Tour.
The Greek player reached the Final in St Petersburg and was a Semi Finalist in Doha and those results underline the progress that has been made. Maria Sakkari is still waiting to win a really big title though to back up her current Number 6 World Ranking, but she is a much improved player on the Tour and someone who has produced much stronger numbers on this surface than in previous years.
Maria Sakkari has a very good serve and that is the foundation for her success, but she has also won 45% of return points played in 2022. Even looking back at a longer sample shows Maria Sakkari has been pretty steady on the return over a twelve month period and I think she can produce a much stronger effort at Indian Wells than she did a few months ago.
It is no surprise to see Maria Sakkari as a strong favourite against Katerina Siniakova who has only really had one half decent tournament as a Singles player in 2022. She won three Qualifiers in Dubai, but Katerina Siniakova had not won a main draw match on the Tour until the First Round win here at Indian Wells.
There was a time when Katerina Siniakova was a solid player on the Tour, but these days she is perhaps better as a Doubles player and has a second serve that can be attacked. The Czech player has lost matches by wide margins throughout 2022 and Katerina Siniakova is just 1-8 on the hard courts over the last twelve months when facing an opponent Ranked inside the top 20.
Katerina Siniakova has struggled to be competitive in those matches and she was well beaten by Maria Sakkari when these two players met at the US Open.
On that day it was the Maria Sakkari return which proved to be a huge advantage and I think it will be similar when they meet at Indian Wells in the Second Round. Katerina Siniakova can be a dangerous player when at her best, but she has struggled when playing against players Ranked as highly as Maria Sakkari and I think the top ten player will be too good.
Alison Van Uytvanck + 4.5 games v Elena Rybakina: I am pretty high on Elena Rybakina and what she has the potential to do in her career, but I am going to be opposing her in this Second Round match.
The Kazakhstan player has produced a 7-3 record on the hard courts in 2022 and her numbers have been very impressive in those matches. Elena Rybakina reached the Final in Adelaide in January before losing to World Number 1 Ashleigh Barty, but she has had some injury issues since then and it has meant a lack of consistency since that Final.
It certainly leaves Elena Rybakina vulnerable and I do think someone like Alison Van Uytvanck has the game on the hard courts to at least push an opponent that has been struggling physically in recent weeks.
Alison Van Uytvanck has a solid serve, which makes her dangerous and likely competitive, although performances against top 50 Ranked players on the hard courts over the last twelve months leaves much to be desired. However, she has been competitive in her two previous losses to Elena Rybakina and I think the physicality of the match could see the momentum lean towards the Belgian.
If Elena Rybakina is feeling as close to full health as she can, I do think she is someone who as the big serve to keep opponents at bay. The room for improvement is on the returning side of her tennis and the lack of competitive tennis of late may mean Rybakina is lacking some rhythm on that side of her game in this match.
I would have loved Alison Van Uytvanck to have been given one more game, but this start may still be enough for the Belgian to keep this one close.
MY PICKS: Carlos Alcaraz - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Daniel Evans - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Naomi Osaka - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Maria Sakkari - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Alison Van Uytvanck + 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Indian Wells Update: 6-7, - 4.82 Units (26 Units Staked, - 18.54% Yield)
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