It may not have been a perfect Sunday, but at least the Tennis Picks produced a winning day and that has moved the tournament tally back towards the positive.
There is still work to do, but hopefully that is the start of a good run.
We are getting into the business end of the first Masters of the 2022 season and that means the matches should become much more tense as the top names get ready to face one another. A wide open WTA tournament should be fun to watch, while the ATP event has already seen a number of upsets throughout the draw, which again should make it interesting viewing for those watching on.
Paula Badosa - 4.5 games v Sara Sorribes Tormo: Winning the title at Indian Wells in the Autumn underlined the progress Paula Badosa has made on the hard courts, although conditions will be a little different with the tournament back in its usual spot in the calendar. The Second Round win shows that Paula Badosa is capable of having another strong run here with her game well suited to the court speed.
She is going to be a strong favourite to reach the next Round when facing compatriot Sara Sorribes Tormo in the Third Round, although overlooking this opponent would be a mistake.
The last twelve months have been very successful for Sara Sorribes Tormo and she reached a career best World Ranking just last month. The lower Ranked Spaniard has been pretty productive when facing some of the better players on the Tour too, while Sara Sorribes Tormo has been surprisingly effective as a hard court player.
Sara Sorribes Tormo has been a very good return player on the surface and that is the main reason she has been as competitive as she has. The first serve is not the best, but Sorribes Tormo has been able to look after her second serve and it has helped her remain competitive, even if the margin for error is relatively small with the style of play produced.
An opponent like Paula Badosa will feel the style is one that allows her to get on the front foot in this match and it has been the reason she has been able to secure two pretty strong wins over Sara Sorribes Tormo in each of their last couple of matches on the Tour.
The first serve is an area where Paula Badosa has a big edge over Sara Sorribes Tormo and I think it will be the reason the higher Ranked player is able to get on top of this match. The spread is a big one, but Paula Badosa has won 45% of return points played over the last twelve months when facing opponents Ranked outside the top 20.
It is a number that should see Paula Badosa pose plenty of return problems for the Sara Sorribes Tormo serve and I think it helps the defending Champion produce a strong win on her way through to the next Round.
Elise Mertens - 3.5 games v Daria Gavrilova: The WTA Tour has a number of players that are very capable of producing some very high level tennis on any given day, but who struggle with the consistency needed to produce their best on a week to week basis. One of those for me is Elise Mertens who has never been inside the top 10 of the World Rankings, but who is a solid all-court player that can beat any opponent on the Tour.
At the moment she is Ranked outside the top 20 and I do think there is plenty of room for improvement that can come about with a big run over the next several weeks. Moving back onto the clay courts should be a benefit, but the conditions at Indian Wells should also suit Elise Mertens who crushed Marta Kostyuk in the Second Round.
The second serve is a vulnerability and has perhaps held Elise Mertens back, but I think this is a match up that should suit her with Daria Gavrilova unlikely to overpower her on the return.
Daria Gavrilova has had a good tournament having worked her way through the Qualifiers and then won two matches in the main draw. There was a time when the Russian turned Australian was a top 20 Ranked player, but recent years have been tough with injury and a loss of form meaning she is now outside the top 400, although the run here will help that Ranking.
The wins here will also have given Daria Gavrilova some confidence, while her numbers in 2022 have been relatively solid. However, the serve remains a vulnerable part of her game and that has to be an area where Elise Mertens is able to have considerable success.
These two have not played one another since 2018 so much has changed, but Elise Mertens won the last three between the players and had strong return numbers to win those matches. I think that will be the case at Indian Wells in 2022 as Elise Mertens moves into a position to cover this mark and it is something I believe she can do.
Daniil Medvedev - 4.5 games v Gael Monfils: The uncertainty for Russian players on the Tennis Tours means the World Number 1 may not be able to defend his current World Ranking on the courts. This is something that Daniil Medvedev has spoken about, although he also admits there is not much he can do if the ATP and WTA Tours decide they are going to suspend Russian players from competing.
It is a sensitive subject and one that is going to upset people no matter which way the Tours end up going.
For Daniil Medvedev the focus is to try and perform to the best of his ability each time he is out on the courts and there is no doubting the level he has maintained on the hard courts. While he has yet to really put his stamp on rivals alongside Daniil Medvedev in the top ten of the World Rankings, Daniil Medvedev has largely dominated those outside of those positions and he has the kind of tennis that is very difficult to break down.
Over the last twelve months, Daniil Medvedev has held 89% of his service games played on the hard courts against players Ranked outside the top ten. In those same matches, Medvedev has broken in 34% of return games played and he is going to be a big threat to Gael Monfils, despite the strong form shown by the veteran.
Gael Monfils has played really well in 2022 and reached the Quarter Final at the Australian Open after winning a title in January, although there have been some question marks about his health ahead of the Indian Wells tournament. He has missed some significant time on the court and Gael Monfils admitted he had some issues from the Covid vaccine booster jab which meant not being able to represent France in the Davis Cup.
A solid win in the Second Round may ease some concerns, but Gael Monfils has a 2-7 record on the hard courts against top 20 Ranked opponents over the last twelve months. The Frenchman has held 77% of his service games in those matches and broken in just shy of 20% of return games played and I think that likely means he is going to be put under considerable pressure by someone with the consistency and quality of Daniil Medvedev.
They have split two previous matches, but those were played in 2019 and Medvedev is much improved now- the World Number 1 should have the quality on the return to move into a position to cover this wide handicap mark, although Gael Monfils cannot ever be underestimated.
Cameron Norrie - 4.5 games v Nikoloz Basilashvili: For most casual tennis fans it may still be a big surprise to hear Cameron Norrie is the defending Champion of Indian Wells, although the reality is that the much improved player did win the event when it was played in the Autumn. The move back to the usual slot in the calendar might make things a little different for Cameron Norrie, but he was a comfortable winner in the First Round and there is no doubting how high his confidence has to be going into the tournament.
January was not a very productive month for Cameron Norrie and the early loss at the Australian Open really hurt, but he is still at his career best World Ranking of Number 12 and the performances since Melbourne have been very impressive. He won the title at Delray Beach and followed up by reaching the Final in Acapulco, while Cameron Norrie also reached the Quarter Final in Rotterdam.
Those results are impressive, but they have been very much deserved as Norrie has held 87% of his service games and broken in 28% of return games played in those tournaments. With the confidence of having won the title here, Cameron Norrie could be a tough out for every opponent he faces over the next week.
The Third Round sees Cameron Norrie face the player he beat in the Indian Wells Final at the end of 2021, although it is the first match that Nikoloz Basilashvili has played in the 2022 edition of the event. The Georgian benefited from Fabio Fognini withdrawing from the tournament, but Nikoloz Basilashvili has had an inconsistent season so far and will have to up his level to compete in this match.
It has been a poor season outside of the run to the Final in Doha, but you do have to wonder if the return to this setting will inspire Nikoloz Basilashvili as it did when playing in that event in the Middle East, which he won last year. Over the last twelve months, Nikoloz Basilashvili has produced relatively average numbers on the hard courts, but in 2022 he has been really struggling to hold serve and that has put a lot of pressure on his return game.
I expect Cameron Norrie to be able to exert pressure with his return, especially as the British player has broken the Nikoloz Basilashvili serve in 50% of the return games played in two wins over him. Cameron Norrie has held 81% of his own service games in those head to head matches and I think current form of the two players means the significant edge has to be with the defending Champion.
MY PICKS: Paula Badosa - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Elise Mertens - 3.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet365 (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Cameron Norrie - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Denis Shapovalov @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Indian Wells Update: 13-12, - 3.50 Units (50 Units Staked, - 7% Yield)
No comments:
Post a Comment