The first four days of the Indian Wells Tournament has not been as productive as I would have liked, but I don't believe the identification of the selections needs to be changed.
Of course I would to put some consistent winners on the board, but the tournament has another week to go and that means there is time to get this turned around and into a positive position.
Alex De Minaur - 3.5 games v John Millman: Two compatriots meet in the Second Round at the Indian Wells tournament on Sunday and that familiarity between Alex De Minaur and John Millman should mean there is a relative comfort on the court.
It may mainly be felt by Alex De Minaur who has won all three professional matches between the two players and largely in dominant style. The two wins on the hard courts has seen Alex De Minaur hold 75% of his service games, but the real damage done to John Millman has been on the return of serve with the latter only winning 46% of points behind serve and holding in 30% of service games played across those two matches.
The last twelve months have been challenging for Alex De Minaur and so I am expecting this to be closer than their previous two hard court matches, although I still give the higher Ranked Australian the edge to cover this spread.
Both the serve and return have been improved in 2022, but over the last twelve months Alex De Minaur has had some vulnerabilities on the hard courts which has stunted his progression. The hope is that the early season form is something he can maintain, although the first match in any new tournament can be a challenge for even the very best players.
John Millman was a First Round winner having benefited as a Lucky Loser when falling in the Qualifiers. At his best, John Millman is a competent hard court player and his numbers are solid, if nothing spectacular.
There has been enough in his tennis to think the familiarity with the Indian Wells conditions could see him give Alex De Minaur trouble, but the head to head between them has to be a concern for John Millman. My feeling is that it will mean a slow start from Alex De Minaur as he just figures things out before he is able to start dominating an opponent that he has bettered in their previous matches.
Both will know all they need to about the other, but Alex De Minaur has had the edge and I think he can win well to move through to the Third Round.
MY PICKS: Alex De Minaur - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Pablo Carreno Busta - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Sorana Cirstea - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Kaia Kanepi - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Madison Keys - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Indian Wells Update: 9-10, - 5.74 Units (38 Units Staked, - 15.11% Yield)
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