The Indian Wells Masters is coming to a conclusion this weekend and there are some big names on both the ATP and WTA Tours looking to make a statement by winning one of the big prizes outside of the Grand Slam events.
It certainly feels like it makes a more immediate impact for the players on the WTA Tour with the same format of best of three sets used in the Slams- granted you need to win one more match in the big events, but this is still a real marker.
The same cannot fully be said on the ATP side of things with more sets and more matches between a player and the title, but it is still a big moment for players looking to announce themselves to a wider audience like Carlos Alcaraz, who has made the Semi Final.
Andrey Rublev - 3.5 games v Grigor Dimitrov: Seeds have fallen throughout this tournament and that leaves Andrey Rublev as the second highest Ranked player left in the draw. He is the favourite in this Quarter Final when he takes on Grigor Dimitrov, although Rublev will do well not to overlook an opponent who is having one of his better weeks on the Tour.
The consistency is not there to match some of the top players on the Tour, but Grigor Dimitrov is able to put his tennis together at any time and that ends up making him a potentially dangerous opponent once he has built up some momentum. His last twelve months on the hard courts has produced some decent numbers, but Dimitrov has not really produced the results he would have liked and that has dropped him down to World Number 35 in the Rankings.
I do feel his best days are already behind him, but Grigor Dimitrov is putting a strong Indian Wells tournament together. His three wins have all come in straight sets and Grigor Dimitrov has been very effective behind serve with 96% of service games being held, although it can't be ignored that he has yet to face an opponent Ranked inside the top 20.
The Bulgarian will likely feel he needs to up his return game, although again the numbers are influenced by the fact he has faced some solid servers in the event.
Andrey Rublev is not going to blow anyone away in the same way John Isner is, but he is a very efficient server and has held 86% of service games played on the hard courts in 2022. Like his opponent, Rublev has yet to drop a set in this tournament and he has a significant edge when it comes to the return game, which will give him the edge in this Quarter Final.
They have split four previous matches, all on the hard courts, but the last of those matches were played in 2019.
There is no doubt that things have changed since they last met- three of the four previous matches took place when Grigor Dimitrov was Ranked inside the top ten and all four matches played came at a time when the Bulgarian was the higher Ranked player. Nowadays it is Andrey Rublev in the top ten and his overall performance on the hard courts over a considerable sample size suggests he will be able to get the better of this Quarter Final.
With a superior return game, I think Andrey Rublev can cover on his way into the Semi Final.
MY PICKS: Andrey Rublev - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Simona Halep @ 2.50 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Paula Badosa - 1.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Indian Wells Update: 23-21, - 4.60 Units (88 Units Staked, - 5.23% Yield)
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