After the first couple of selections fell by the wayside- I thought one had every chance of covering with a bit more quality at the big moments, while the other was a blow out defeat from start to finish- it would have been easy to be wondering how bad the day was going to turn out.
However, three straight winners to close out Thursday has at least put some positives on the board as the tournament in Indian Wells continues.
It looks like being another year at the event where the players are dealing with a slower court, but fast air conditions that can see the ball fly off the strings. The Christopher Eubanks-Maxime Cressy match was unaffected by the slower conditions, but it is something to keep in mind as this tournament is played and the conditions here are usually considerably different to most hard courts.
Andy Murray - 3.5 games v Taro Daniel: Strong results have pushed Taro Daniel back towards the top 100 of the World Rankings and he has earned his spot in the main draw at Indian Wells thanks to a couple of wins in the Qualifiers. The two wins came in comfortable fashion for Taro Daniel as he gets to face a familiar opponent.
For the third time in 2022, Taro Daniel will face Andy Murray and the two previous matches on the hard courts have been split with a win for each player. Andy Murray earned his place in the main draw thanks to a Wild Card, but he has struggled for consistency ever since he reached the Final in Sydney and Murray has not won back to back matches in any tournament since then either.
In saying that, Andy Murray will point to the fact he has not been beaten in the First Round of any tournament since the very first one in Melbourne back in January. Backing up the level needed to win matches has been tough, but Andy Murray is also down at World Number 88 in the Rankings and that means he tends to face tough opponents very early in draws.
The defeat to Taro Daniel at the Australian Open would have hurt, but Andy Murray crushed the same opponent in Doha and that should mean he has the confidence to back up that victory. Andy Murray has also produced a record of 8-2 when facing opponents Ranked outside the top 20 of the World Rankings this season and his numbers have been significantly better in those matches against the players that Murray will feel he should beat.
The British player has held 85% of service games played against those opponents outside of the top 20 of the World Rankings and Andy Murray has broken in 26% of return games played.
I expect Taro Daniel to test Murray more than he did in the one-sided loss in Doha, but he has struggled to break serve against the top 100 Ranked opponents he has faced on the hard courts. Taro Daniel had a decent time Down Under, but he has broken serve in only 16% of return games played against the top 100 Ranked opponents and I think that could be the difference between these two in this First Round match.
Both of these players hold a straight sets win over the other this season, but the Andy Murray numbers have been stronger of the two. He has held 73% of service games played compared with Taro Daniel's 70% mark and that is backed up by the fact that Andy Murray has just made a bit more use of his serve in terms of points won.
I do think Andy Murray benefits from this being his first match in the tournament and the win over Taro Daniel in Doha should mean he knows exactly what to do in the match. Conditions in Indian Wells can be tough and Taro Daniel is a bit more familiar with them, but Andy Murray won a couple of matches here when the tournament was played in the Autumn of 2021 and I think he will have enough to move into the Second Round behind another solid win over this opponent.
Miomir Kecmanovic - 2.5 games v Liam Broady: At 28 years old the feeling is that this is now or never for Liam Broady to finally break into the top 100 of the World Rankings. He reached a career best Ranking last month and a couple of wins in the Qualifiers has helped Liam Broady into the main draw at Indian Wells.
Winning Qualifiers and winning main draw matches is like night and day and Liam Broady will have to improve his performances. Qualifying for big events has been something that Broady has been able to achieve with considerable success throughout 2022, but he has only won a single match in the main draw after doing so.
Liam Broady is in for another challenge here even if Miomir Kecmanovic has spent the last month of his time playing on the clay courts. The Serbian has had success doing that, while Miomir Kecmanovic is a solid hard court player who has decent enough numbers, even if they don't leap off the page over the last twelve months.
Those numbers are certainly good enough to win a match like this one and Miomir Kecmanovic will be motivated to get his Ranking moving back in a positive direction to ensure automatic entry into events like this one going forward.
The British player has a left-handed serve which should give him an edge, but over the last twelve months he has only held 71% of his service games on the hard courts when facing an opponent who is Ranked inside the top 100. His return game has not been good enough for Liam Broady to overcome those numbers and I think that will be an issue for the underdog in this First Round match too.
These players met last year at the Miami Masters and it resulted in a win for Miomir Kecmanovic, although it did take three sets. On that day, the Serb had a considerable advantage on the serve and it could have been a more comfortable win on another day, something that I think could happen when they meet for the second time on the Tour on Friday.
Iga Swiatek - 5.5 games v Anhelina Kalinina: This has not been a very strong start to 2022 for Anhelina Kalinina, but she will be playing with more motivation as she proudly represents the Ukraine.
Her First Round win will be a real confidence booster, but Anhelina Kalinina had only won one of her opening four matches in 2022 and she had not played a competitive match since the Australian Open before arriving in Indian Wells. Winning a match will make her feel good, but Kalinina is going to be well aware of the kind of level that she has to step up to if she is going to challenge the Number 3 Seed in the draw.
One of the top Seeds as an opponent is a problem, but facing Iga Swiatek is another considering how well the Polish player has been performing. She won the big title in Doha having reached the Australian Open Semi Final, while the numbers have been very impressive from Iga Swiatek throughout this year.
The hard courts may not always be the surface you would expect the best from Iga Swiatek, but she is a confident player on most courts and the conditions in Indian Wells look very suitable for her tennis. Iga Swiatek has a considerably stronger serve than the one that Anhelina Kalinina will be trying to protect and I do think that is going to be the difference between the in this Second Round match.
The return is also becoming a more dangerous weapon for Iga Swiatek and she is winning 49% of return points played on the hard courts in 2022. That number is more impressive when you think of the level that Swiatek is competing at and it is a mark that is stronger than the 42% number that Anhelina Kalinina is holding.
Anhelina Kalinina has produced those numbers against players Ranked considerably below Iga Swiatek and I think the latter will find the tennis to pull away for a good win.
Madison Keys - 5.5 games v Misaki Doi: It has not been the best couple of years for Madison Keys as she has had some issues through the pandemic which have affected her tennis. A strong run to the Australian Open Semi Final in January has suggested that Madison Keys may just have used the time to renew her love of the sport, although we have not seen much of an impact from the American since the first Grand Slam of the season.
Early losses on the hard courts of Mexico will have dented some of the momentum, but Madison Keys remains one of the better players on this surface thanks to a huge serve and some heavy groundstrokes. The conditions of Indian Wells may not be ideal for her tennis, but I do think being back on North American soil will be an inspiration for Madison Keys with two big tournaments in the United States before the clay court season begins.
The numbers have been impressive in the opening couple of months of the 2022 season, and Madison Keys should be quite happy with the potential match up in front of her against Misaki Doi.
The lower Ranked player came from a set down to earn a win in the First Round, but she has not really made much of an impact on the main Tour and Misaki Doi continues to be a vulnerable player on the hard courts. A run to the Semi Final in Adelaide would have surprised, but Misaki Doi had lost three matches in a row on the main Tour before the win in the First Round and I do think she is going to have a tough match against Madison Keys with a vulnerable second serve and a return that may not hurt her opponent in this Second Round meeting.
Madison Keys has won five of the previous seven between these players and that includes all four matches that were played on the hard courts. In those matches, Madison Keys has dominated Misaki Doi and the latter has struggled to remain competitive on the scoreboard.
In those previous matches, Madison Keys has won plenty of points behind the first serve to keep the pressure on Misaki Doi. Even better, Keys has won 50% of return points played against Misaki Doi and I think the losing run can be ended in front of the home fans with Madison Keys capable of pulling clear for a wide success.
MY PICKS: Andy Murray - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Miomir Kecmanovic - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Iga Swiatek - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Madison Keys - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Sorana Cirstea - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Clara Tauson - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Indian Wells Update: 3-3, - 1.46 Units (12 Units Staked, - 12.17% Yield)
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