It was a tough day in the office and the Indian Wells tournament has not really been the one I wanted after a difficult February for the Tennis Picks.
The Quarter Final matches are set to be played on Thursday and there are still four days to at least put a positive run together to take into the Miami Masters, but I do need a little more fortune than has been around in this tournament so far.
Paula Badosa - 3.5 games v Veronika Kudermetova: One saving grace for Veronika Kudermetova is that her Quarter Final has been scheduled for Thursday rather than Wednesday after spending almost three hours on court to beat Marketa Vondrousova. A strong tournament has been produced by the Russian player who is at a career best World Number 24 in the Rankings and likely going to see that improved before heading to the Miami Masters next week.
Veronika Kudermetova will not want her tournament in Indian Wells to end just yet either, but she will be playing the confident defending Champion.
Paula Badosa has played a consistent level in her three wins in the tournament and winning the title here a few months ago will certainly mean she is full of belief as we enter the business end of the event. It is the second serve which has been particularly effective for Paula Badosa and this is a key shot for the Spaniard if she is going to beat an opponent who has had the better of their match up.
In three previous matches, Veronika Kudermetova has beaten Paula Badosa each time and two of those wins came in the 2021 season. Both previous hard court matches have resulted in a win for the Russian, which includes a meeting in Indian Wells in 2019 when both of these 24 year olds were still working their way onto the Tour.
It will certainly give Veronika Kudermetova confidence and she has played well in her three wins here, especially behind the serve. Like her opponent, Kudermetova will feel this is a key shot for her if she is going to upset the defending Champion, although the big difference between the two players has been the effectiveness of the return of serve.
This is an area in which Paula Badosa has looked more comfortable of the two players at this tournament and in the 2022 season in general. I am expecting it to be a key reason Paula Badosa is finally able to get the better of Veronika Kudermetova on the Tour, while lingering fatigue, both physical and emotional, from the Fourth Round win cannot be underestimated.
Paula Badosa may have to weather some tough emotional moments as she bids to beat this opponent for the first time, but her tennis looks capable of doing that and I think she can cover this spread in this Quarter Final.
Elena Rybakina + 2.5 games v Maria Sakkari: This has all of the makings of a big time Quarter Final between two top 20 Ranked players who are having very strong weeks at Indian Wells.
Anyone who has reached the Quarter Final of the first Masters event of the season will be feeling like they have had a big week, but the manner of the wins have to be respected too. Both Maria Sakkari and Elena Rybakina have been dominant winners in their three matches in the tournament and the numbers have been very impressive all around.
Maria Sakkari is really enjoying the conditions all around and her serve has proved to be a big weapon in her wins so far. The same can be said for Elena Rybakina, who is perhaps getting a little more out of her second serve compared with her higher Ranked opponent.
However, it is the Maria Sakkari return which has had the edge and I think that it could ultimately prove to be the difference in what looks like a really competitive match. The Greek player hits the ball pretty hard and has a little more movement around the court, but you do have to worry for her if she allows Elena Rybakina to play first strike tennis with the ability to hit through even the slower courts.
Both of these players have had strong wins over former Grand Slam Champions in their run to the Quarter Final and so I don't think either player is going to be intimidated by who they see on the other side of the net.
The feeling is that this could look like their sole previous meeting on the Tour which ended in a three set win for Elena Rybakina- the outcome may change, but I would not be surprised if this is another match that needs the final set decider to produce a winner.
In that previous match on an indoor hard court, Elena Rybakina earned more than double the break points of Maria Sakkari and it does feel she has the tennis that should produce a Grand Slam title or two in the near future. Sometimes it can be hit or miss, but Elena Rybakina has produced strong numbers on the hard courts all season and I do think she is a live underdog in this Quarter Final.
There is no doubting how well Maria Sakkari has performed in 2022 on the hard courts too, but I do think the second serve can be a little vulnerable to a big hitter like the one she faces in this Quarter Final. It could prove to be the reason this match goes long and the games given to the underdog could end up being plenty valuable.
MY PICKS: Paula Badosa - 3.5 Games @
Elena Rybakina + 2.5 Games @
Nick Kyrgios + 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Carlos Alcaraz - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Indian Wells Update: 20-20, - 7.68 Units (80 Units Staked, - 9.60% Yield)
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