Monday proved to be the late show for the Tennis Picks, but Tuesday was not so kind as the Miami schedule was completed.
The late losses were a little disappointing considering the position both Stefanos Tsitsipas and Taylor Fritz found themselves in, but it is what it is.
It is Quarter Final day on Wednesday as the Miami Masters rattles to a close this weekend. The WTA Semi Final line up will be completed, but half of the ATP Quarter Final matches are set for Thursday with half played today.
Alexander Zverev - 3.5 games v Casper Ruud: After some difficult moments over the last month, the former Miami Masters Runner Up Alexander Zverev is hoping to go one better in 2022. The tournament looks an open one as we have gotten down to the Quarter Final stage and Alexander Zverev is playing really well.
He is going to need all of his best tennis when taking on Casper Ruud who has yet to drop a set in the tournament and had a rare success over a top 20 Ranked opponent on the hard courts when beating Cameron Norrie in the Fourth Round. It is a win and a performance that has to give Casper Ruud confidence, while the slow conditions on the main court in Miami will suit a player who is very effective on the clay courts.
This time he is playing an opponent who is in very fine form of his own and Alexander Zverev will not be worried about the conditions himself. The slower court gives him plenty of time to set up the big groundstrokes and the final match scheduled to be played on Wednesday night in Miami looks to be a very strong one.
Both Casper Ruud and Alexander Zverev will be very happy with the way they have been serving in the tournament- both are holding 96% of service games played, but it is Ruud who has the edge when it comes to the return of serve having broken in 41% of return games played compared with Zverev's mark of 25%.
One difference is that it feels like Alexander Zverev is peaking in this tournament and he has shown improvement in each of his three wins in Miami. Casper Ruud was very impressive in his first two wins, but the victory over Cameron Norrie was more competitive than the straight sets scoreline suggests and I do think he is going to have to be a lot better if he is going to compete with someone as strong as Alexander Zverev.
Over the course of 2022 there is nothing between these players in terms of numbers, but over a twelve month period it is Alexander Zverev who has put together the stronger hard court numbers. There has also been the massive difference in level of performance when Casper Ruud and Alexander Zverev have played top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts over the last twelve months and I do think the higher Ranked player deserves to be set as the favourite.
Even the margin of favouritism doesn't concern me.
Alexander Zverev has won both previous hard court matches between these players and both of those wins came in 2021. The German has yet to drop a set to Casper Ruud and he has held 94% of service games played in those matches compared with Ruud's mark of 63% and there has been a huge advantage in favour of Alexander Zverev when it comes to the point percentage won behind serve.
It should be a decent Quarter Final, but I do think Alexander Zverev is going to have enough in his tennis to win the match and also cover the spread on his way to another Miami Semi Final.
Paula Badosa - 2.5 games v Jessica Pegula: The season has been a little inconsistent from Jessica Pegula and she has not reached the heights produced in 2021, but I think the standards set have contributed to the feeling that she is underachieving. A run to the Quarter Final at the Australian Open should have really been a spark for Jessica Pegula, but some earlier than expected losses have prevented her from really making an impact on the Tour.
Things may feel different in Miami where Jessica Pegula has reached another Quarter Final and she has yet to drop a set in her three wins here. She also benefited from only needing to play a single set in her Fourth Round win, but I am not sure it is going to be too much of a concern for Paula Badosa considering there has been a day of rest between those Fourth Round matches and this Quarter Final.
Jessica Pegula's biggest problem so far this season on the hard courts has been the struggle to really get into her return games. However, the American has been happy in home settings this week in Miami and she has managed to win 51% of return points played in her three wins here compared with her overall 41% mark in 2022.
I expect the return to be challenged by Paula Badosa who has proven to be a pretty effective server on the hard courts, although the second serve can be vulnerable at times. I do think Jessica Pegula will be able to have success attacking the second serve, but Paula Badosa's first serve has been effective and she continues to show plenty of consistency when it comes to her return of serve.
Paula Badosa can also stay on top of Jessica Pegula by continuing to get a high percentage of first serves in play- she is just shy of 70% of first serves made this week in Miami and that is a number that will certainly put Pegula in a tough spot when it comes to trying to build some pressure on her Spanish opponent.
I do think Paula Badosa will see plenty more second serves on current form and I think that will help the higher Ranked player work her way through to the Semi Final. Conditions here won't be too much of a bother for Badosa and I think she can do enough to secure a victory in a manner to cover this mark.
Iga Swiatek - 5.5 games v Petra Kvitova: The abrupt decision to retire made by Ashleigh Barty means the WTA Tour is missing their World Number 1, but Iga Swiatek is producing the kind of form that means she is going to take over that spot sooner than later. At this moment in time, Iga Swiatek is the best player on the Tour and I certainly think the Polish player is going to very confident going into the clay court season.
The former French Open Champion may be the player to beat when Roland Garros comes around at the end of May, but Iga Swiatek has made steady improvements on the hard courts over the last couple of years. She won the title in Indian Wells last week and Iga Swiatek has refused to be satisfied by the success as she has arrived in Miami with more titles on her mind.
Iga Swiatek's numbers on the hard courts in 2022 have been very impressive and she has won a couple of titles on the surface, which has to be respected. The serve has been decent enough, but it is the fact that Iga Swiatek has won 51% of return points played on the surface which has sparked the kind of successes she has enjoyed so far this season.
Her overall numbers have been really impressive in the Miami Masters- Iga Swiatek has served very well and she has won 57% of return points played in her three matches here. She has broken at least four times in each of her matches played, while Iga Swiatek has dropped serve just twice in the tournament and is performing with a lot of confidence.
Someone like Petra Kvitova could be very dangerous and at her best the left-hander is a very confident hard court player in her own right. She was a little fortunate to win in the Fourth Round, while Petra Kvitova has suffered some heavy losses on the hard courts including when winning just three games in her defeat to Maria Sakkari in Indian Wells.
Inconsistent results have contributed to average hard court numbers and Petra Kvitova has not been as effective on the return of serve as her opponent. The serve can be a potent weapon at its best, but Petra Kvitova's second serve could be put under pressure by someone who is playing at the level that Iga Swiatek is playing at.
The slower conditions in Miami have given Petra Kvitova a chance to have a full swing when it comes to the return and she has won 50% of return points played in the tournament, although she has not come anywhere near the numbers that Iga Swiatek has produced on serve. It is the Petra Kvitova second serve which has really been vulnerable in the tournament and I think that will be the difference between these players in this Quarter Final.
This is a very big spread when you think of how good Petra Kvitova can be, but her hard court numbers over the last twelve months suggest she is going to need to turn back the clock and produce a special performance to be as competitive as she would like. At the moment, Iga Swiatek doesn't look like a player that is going to leave too many openings for her opponent to exploit and I will look for the soon to be World Number 1 to win and cover on her way to another Semi Final.
MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Paula Badosa - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Iga Swiatek - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Miami Update: 23-24, - 8.98 Units (94 Units Staked, - 9.55% Yield)
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