Indian Wells Masters Tennis Picks 2022 (March 10th)

As long as you can look at the Tennis Picks you make and accept the outcome without regret at the research to make the selection, you have to live with some of the fortune or misfortune that may come about.

Ultimately that is how I felt about the Dayana Yastremska selection on Wednesday- she was the player who created the most break points and she had multiple games in which she failed to break despite those break point opportunities in what ended up being a very narrow defeat.

It is the way it goes sometimes, but I think the selection was the right one and being on the other side would have needed the luck to get over the line. This is not a good start to the Indian Wells Masters Picks, but it is very early in the tournament and I don't need to be overly concerned just yet.

Naomi Osaka - 3.5 games v Sloane Stephens: Two Grand Slam Champions will meet in the First Round of the Indian Wells tournament beginning this week and I think that should tell you where Naomi Osaka and Sloane Stephens are with their tennis these days.

The most surprising part of this First Round match is that Sloane Stephens is 40 places higher in the World Rankings than Naomi Osaka- the latter has won four Grand Slam titles in her career, but she has had a difficult couple of years dealing with the pressures that come with becoming a high-profile player and it has meant Naomi Osaka has slipped down the World Rankings as she has missed a number of tournaments in that time.

Her early loss at the Australian Open did not help, but it is quite amazing to think that this will only be the twenty-first match played by Naomi Osaka over the last twelve months. Having her back consistently on the Tour would be huge for the WTA, even if we are about to enter the clay court portion of the season, which is not Osaka's favourite.

She has enjoyed playing at Indian Wells though and a former Champion here means the conditions should not be too much of a concern for Naomi Osaka. More problematic may be the lack of tennis played in recent weeks/months and especially as Osaka will be playing a confident opponent in Sloane Stephens.

The American won a title in Mexico in her last tournament, but Sloane Stephens has not really been a consistent threat on the Tour for a while now. Her numbers underline that and I think Naomi Osaka should be able to get more out of her first serve to put herself in a position to win this match.

It is Sloane Stephens who has won the two previous matches between these US Open Champions, but the last of those came in the WTA Finals in 2018. That was a couple of months after Naomi Osaka took over as the US Open Champion from Sloane Stephens, but I also think Osaka is a much better player now than she was.

The return remains the most vulnerable part of the Naomi Osaka game, but I think she will be able to get enough balls back in play to eventually begin to overpower Sloane Stephens. I do think there is still a strong player in Stephens that makes her potentially dangerous, and her defensive skills could cause problems for a potentially rusty Naomi Osaka.

However, this is a tournament which has been one that Naomi Osaka has appreciated more than Sloane Stephens in their careers and I think the former World Number 1 returns with a bang to the WTA Tour.

Marta Kostyuk - 4.5 games v Maryna Zanevska: There are likely to be plenty of emotions on court when two Ukrainian players meet in the First Round at Indian Wells and the biggest question is the hardest one to answer.

Both Marta Kostyuk and Maryna Zanevska are going to be worrying about the dangers being faced by people back at home and it can be hard to ignore those and be able to play your best tennis on the courts. Neither player has been involved in a competitive match since the Russian attack on Ukraine began and so you do have to accept that there are going to be plenty of things on the mind of the players.

Maryna Zanevska is a bit older and that maturity could make it 'easier' for her, but it is a question that cannot be answered with much conviction unless you know either of the two players.

What should not be an issue is motivation to have a big tournament and we saw Ukrainian players perform very well last week as they looked to offer support to those back home in the best way they could.

Both players have had mixed results in 2022, but there is no doubt that the upside is with Marta Kostyuk who is expected to have a big impact on the Tour in the years ahead. She is higher in the World Rankings than Maryna Zanevska and her numbers have been superior on the hard courts so far this season.

It is the second serve where Marta Kostyuk really has the edge, although she has lost both previous hard court matches against this compatriot. However, the most recent match between these two came on a clay court and Marta Kostyuk was able to get the better of Maryna Zanevska so there should be a mental edge in favour of the older player in this one.

I do think this will be a competitive match at times, but I am also expecting a bit more from Marta Kostyuk at the key moments which gives her the edge in the match. With a slightly inferior second serve and return, Maryna Zanevska could just be caught out at the back end of the sets and that could see Marta Kostyuk cover this handicap mark.

Heather Watson + 3.5 games v Tereza Martincova: Coming through the Qualifiers will give Heather Watson some confidence, although the British player has never really fulfilled the kind of potential so many believed she had. Her career best Ranking is Number 38, but these days Heather Watson has fallen out of the top 100 and that means having to work through the Qualifiers to play in the biggest events.

Winning matches at least means she is playing with some confidence, but over the last twelve months Heather Watson has a losing record on the hard courts and her numbers are average at best. Even in 2022, the British player has a 2-5 record when playing against top 100 Ranked opponents on the hard courts, although I do think the numbers and the scores show that Heather Watson has been able to be competitive, even in those defeats.

Even the losses that have come in straight sets have been in two tight sets and that should give Watson some belief as she gets set to take on Tereza Martincova who reached her own career best World Ranking just last month.

The Czech player may not earn the same kind of headlines as some of her compatriots, but over the last twelve months Tereza Martincova has been pretty consistent on this surface. She tends to play at a higher level than Heather Watson, but Tereza Martincova may feel there is room for improvement having only compiled a 4-3 record against opponents Ranked outside the top 50 in the Rankings so far this season.

In those matches, the numbers suggest that Tereza Martincova is unlikely to blow many opponents away and that should be encouraging to the Qualifier who is facing her in the First Round.

The key to the outcome of this one will be the second serve and which of these two players is able to look after that shot the best. However, the pressure is likely to be on Heather Watson a little more with her first serve percentage some way below the mark that Tereza Martincova has reached in matches on the hard courts.

It may end up being the reason the higher Ranked player is able to move through to the Second Round, but I do have to respect how well Heather Watson has competed so far this season. Those two Qualifier wins are going to help Watson considerably with the familiarity with the conditions at Indian Wells and I think the underdog is in receipt of enough games to be worth a back on Thursday.

Kaja Juvan - 3.5 games v Oceane Dodin: I was pretty high on Oceane Dodin and the potential she had displayed on the Tour, but she has not really pushed on from the early part of her career. These days the Frenchwoman is struggling for consistency and her World Ranking is drifting in the wrong direction and Oceane Dodin will soon be having to come through the Qualifiers to play in events like this one.

She will be looking to change the momentum of the season at Indian Wells with Oceane Dodin winning just two matches since her First Round win in Sydney before the Australian Open began. Oceane Dodin entered that tournament as a Lucky Loser, but wins have been hard to find and I think that leaves her vulnerable.

This First Round match sees Oceane Dodin entering as the lower Ranked player, but Kaja Juvan has only recently overtaken her. The entry list for the Indian Wells tournament came at a time when the younger player still had to Qualifier and she has won a couple of matches to take her place in the First Round and I do think Kaja Juvan is a progressive player.

The Slovenian has won plenty of matches already in 2022, although many of them have come in Qualifiers and Kaja Juvan has yet to have a really big impact in an event one reaching the main draw. However, in saying that, this is the kind of match that Kaja Juvan would expect to face in Qualifiers and she has largely been too strong for those kind of opponents.

Since the Australian Open, Kaja Juvan has won nine matches in a row against opponents Ranked outside of the top 50 in the World. Her numbers have been extremely impressive in that run with a strong serve being backed up by a return that has seen Kaja Juvan win 50% of points played against the opponent's serve.

Kaja Juvan has dropped three sets in those nine wins, but the other matches have been won in straight-forward fashion and I do think she can put Oceane Dodin under pressure. The differing confidence with which both players are taking to the court can help Kaja Juvan too and I think she will find the tennis to eventually pull clear and cover this handicap mark on her way into the Second Round.

Christopher Eubanks-Maxime Cressy over 24.5 games: Coming through a couple of Qualifiers should make Christopher Eubanks feel a little more confident as he gets set to compete in the First Round at the Indian Wells Masters.

A player with a relatively basic game has struggled to really put together consistent results and it is only the second time in the 2022 season that Christopher Eubanks has won back to back matches.

His game is very much based around a huge serve, but Christopher Eubanks has struggled on the return and it puts a lot of pressure on him to make sure he is serving efficiently. So far this season he has held 89% of the service games played and Eubanks has won 69% of the points played behind this shot, but his return is limited.

However, I think the serve could be a big weapon against Maxime Cressy who has lost three matches in row beginning with the defeat at the Australian Open. The American is known for a serve-volley game and the gambling nature which will see Maxime Cressy serve the second serve as quickly as the first, but it helped him reach the Fourth Round at the opening Grand Slam of the season.

That run helped Maxime Cressy reach a career best World Ranking and he should hold the edge over this compatriot, especially as Cressy has held 92% of the service games played this season. He has won just shy of 70% of the points played behind serve, but like Christopher Eubanks, Maxime Cressy has struggled on the return and it could mean a long match in the First Round between two big servers.

It will be lengthy in terms of games played, but I can see both players racing through some of their service games and it may come down to a point or two either way to determine the winner of the match.

I have to give the edge to Maxime Cressy, but it may need a couple of tie-breakers to secure passage through to the Second Round and I will look for the match to surpass this total games line.

MY PICKS: Naomi Osaka - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Marta Kostyuk - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Heather Watson + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Kaja Juvan - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Christopher Eubanks-Maxime Cressy Over 24.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Indian Wells Update: 0-1, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)