The Thursday action returned a solid day for the Tennis Picks and gives me something to build on here in Miami.
We are only into the Second Round though so there is plenty of tennis to get through before seeing how the tournament will work out, but it is an encouraging day after a difficult first couple of days.
Nick Kyrgios + 2.5 games v Andrey Rublev: 2021 was a very difficult season for all on the Tour, but the pandemic had a particular impact on those players from Australia and New Zealand who knew leaving the country would mean a tough time returning home. Many decided that it would be better for their own mental health and well-being to avoid travelling to tournaments as they usually would and one of those was Nick Kyrgios.
I think that has contributed to the decision made by Ashleigh Barty to retire at 25 years old and Nick Kyrgios has also spoken about not always having the love for tennis to put in the work that he needs to in order to win the biggest events. He looks much happier overall at the moment and 2022 has given Kyrgios a chance to travel alongside his girlfriend, which seems to have grounded the charismatic Australian and also helped him produce some very solid tennis.
The serve has always made Nick Kyrgios a tough person to play on the hard courts, but the opening three months of the season have been impressive thanks to his returning performances. He has broken in 21% of return games played, although a seven match sample is not the biggest, while Kyrgios reached the Quarter Final in Indian Wells last week.
The two losses suffered by Nick Kyrgios have come against Daniil Medvedev and Rafael Nadal this season, but Andrey Rublev is the Second Round opponent for him in Miami and this is a player who will feel he is right up alongside the top players on the Tour. Take away the surprising Third Round loss at the Australian Open and Andrey Rublev has been the epitome of consistency with two titles alongside two other runs to Semi Finals, including at Indian Wells.
Consistency has been the key for Andrey Rublev since the start of the 2020 season and it feels very dangerous to oppose him, but Nick Kyrgios will feel he is serving well enough to stay with the Russian.
Andrey Rublev has struggled to deal with the Nick Kyrgios serve in their two previous matches, although the last of those was in 2019. Those were days when Rublev was Ranked below Nick Kyrgios and that has changed now, but I do think the latter is playing well enough and with enough focus to keep this one close.
Tie-breakers will likely be needed, and the way Nick Kyrgios challenged both Medvedev and Nadal in defeats this season suggests he can do the same against Andrey Rublev. Much will depend how well Nick Kyrgios is able to serve in this one, but if he can, I think he is able to make the games given to him count.
Jannik Sinner - 3.5 games v Emil Ruusuvuori: An illness meant Jannik Sinner was unable to take to the court for his Fourth Round match at Indian Wells and the biggest question to answer is whether there has been enough time for him to make a full recovery. The Italian has been in fine form in 2022 and will feel the illness has come at a bad time, but big tournaments are still to come and Jannik Sinner can certainly make amends for not being able to finish as he would have liked in Indian Wells.
He received a Bye through to the Second Round and that means there has been more than a week between when Sinner last took to the court and this match in Miami. Travelling doesn't help, but Jannik Sinner has entered both the Singles and Doubles event here and that suggests he will feel he can compete at a good level.
Emil Ruusuvuori is the first player that Sinner will be facing in Miami after the young player Maxime Cressy impressively in the First Round. The Finnish player is once again approaching a career high World Ranking mark and has reached the Semi Final and a Final in hard court events this season, although Emil Ruusuvuori has benefited from the weak draws in the events in Melbourne and Pune.
Relatively early losses in Indian Wells and in a Phoenix Challenger will have dented some of the confidence, while Emil Ruusuvuori has found it tough to compete with top 50 Ranked players on the hard courts over the last twelve months. This season he is 1-4 in those matches on this surface, while the numbers show the serve is vulnerable when facing some of the better players on the Tour.
That is going to be a problem for Emil Ruusuvuori when he takes on Jannik Sinner who has broken in 26% of return games played on the hard courts in 2022 and that is a number that stays steady when you take a look at the bigger sample of his performances over the last twelve months. The fact that Sinner is used to playing at a higher level than Ruusuvuori should only give him a further edge and the only doubt is the illness that he was dealing with in Indian Wells.
Jannik Sinner played Emil Ruusuvuori twice last season and one of those matches came here in Miami with the other at a hard court event in Washington. The Italian crushed Ruusuvuori in both matches and was able to hold serve in 94% of games played, while Jannik Sinner broke in 42% of return games played too.
It is a match up that Jannik Sinner has enjoyed and I do think he is the much stronger player this stage of their respective careers. As long as Sinner feels ready to take to the court, I do think he will be able to win and win well in the Second Round encounter.
MY PICKS: Nick Kyrgios + 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jannik Sinner - 3.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 1.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Frances Tiafoe @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Sorana Cirstea - 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Elena Rybakina - 4.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Maria Sakkari - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Madison Keys - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Victoria Azarenka - 4.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Miami Update: 6-4, + 1.56 Units (20 Units Staked, + 7.80% Yield)
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