Miami Masters Tennis Picks 2022 (March 22nd)

The Grand Slams are clearly the biggest events on the calendar during the Tennis season, but the Masters events are scattered throughout the year and those can inspire big performances when the Slams come around.

Indian Wells is the first Masters in the books in the 2022 season as it returns to its rightful place in the calendar.

But there is no rest for the top names with the Miami Masters set to begin on Tuesday and played through the remainder of the month before the entire Tour shifts attention to the French Open. The clay court season begins in April and there are two more big Masters events to be played in Madrid and Rome before the second Grand Slam of the season begins, but for those who are not at their happiest on the red dirt, the Miami Masters is the last big chance to put up some significant points for a couple of months.

Taylor Fritz and Iga Swiatek took home the Indian Wells titles and it is not easy to complete a back to back- the former might not even play in Miami if his injury has not calmed down.

Without Novak Djokovic, it has felt like the top of the ATP Tour has become a lot more open, even if Rafael Nadal has been the one member of the Big Three competing and clearing up some of the trophies that have been handed out. The Spaniard was not at his best last week, but reached another Final before his unbeaten run to begin 2022 was over and Rafael Nadal may soon return to the top of the World Rankings now we are about to enter the clay court season.

He was suffering with an illness at the end of Indian Wells so there is every chance both Men’s Finalists miss out in Miami.

Iga Swiatek’s win in Indian Wells will be well received by fans of the WTA Tour as it begins to feel like the Pole is producing the consistency that has sometimes been lacking from the top names. There was no Ashleigh Barty in the draw, but Iga Swiatek has made a fast start to the season regardless and is a former French Open Champion so will have to be respected going forward.

She has moved into the World Number 2 spot in the World Rankings and beaten Finalist Maria Sakkari is up to World Number 3, although it does feel like the Greek player is in an artificially high spot having failed to win a Slam or a Masters title.

Maria Sakkari is improving though and may be reaching her peak years so I think there is more to come, although the longer you have to wait to break through the ceiling, the more likely it is that you won’t be able to achieve that.

The WTA Miami event looks like it will be another open one, although it was good to see some of the top names reaching the business end of the Indian Wells event. As much as we love competition, I do feel the Tennis Tours need those big time rivalries at the top to bring in the casual viewers so the big names facing each other more and more often for the biggest prizes is important.

This week there will be a number of disappointed ATP players heading to Miami looking for a much better event than the last Masters played. Uncertainty about the status of some of the top names is not helping, but I am hoping to see another good couple of weeks in North America before the move onto the clay courts.

Novak Djokovic is almost certainly going to be back when the Tour moves back to Europe and there will be many looking forward to seeing the World Number 1 back on the court.

The Indian Wells Masters was a decent tournament for fans, but I did expect better from the Tennis Picks.

It has been tough sledging since the Australian Open, when producing a winning return, but the Miami Masters offers the chance for redemption before the return to the clay courts, which is usually my favoured time of the season.

That’s a big statement to make, but I am looking for some momentum to take into those tournaments as we build towards the French Open.

Amanda Anisimova - 3.5 games v Shelby Rogers: I have absolutely no doubt the kind of player that Amanda Anisimova will become on the WTA Tour, but the last couple of years have been very difficult for her. Personal issues and the pandemic have slowed some of the progression that was being made by the young American, but there have been signs that Amanda Anisimova is ready to move back up the World Rankings having won a title and reached the Fourth Round at the Australian Open already.

The career best World Ranking was achieved at the back end of the 2019 season, but Amanda Anisimova looks to be moving back in a positive direction. An illness forced her out of the Indian Wells Masters in the Second Round, but there should have been enough time to overcome any lingering issues and Anisimova can have a much bigger impact all around in the Miami Masters.

The numbers over the last twelve months have been impressive and Amanda Anisimova is certainly capable of beating her compatriot Shelby Rogers in the First Round here. There is still some room for improvement when it comes to the return of serve, but Amanda Anisimova is a solid server and she will certainly feel she is the superior return player on the court in this First Round match.

Shelby Rogers reached a career best World Ranking earlier this season, but she had been struggling before winning a couple of matches at Indian Wells. Both wins came in competitive matches, but Rogers was well beaten in the Third Round and she has won just 39% of return points played on the surface in 2022.

She will have to be wary of allowing Amanda Anisimova to see too many Second Serves, especially as Shelby Rogers is not likely to have much success attacking the Anisimova serve if the latter is close to her top level.

Shelby Rogers did win a really close, competitive match between these players on the clay courts last year, but I think Amanda Anisimova is showing strong form. Barring any lingering illness concerns, Amanda Anisimova should have the quality of tennis to get the better of her compatriot in this First Round match and I think she can do that well enough to cover this spread.

Ann Li - 4.5 games v Mayar Sherif: There is no doubt the kind of impact that Mayar Sherif will be having on young girls in her homeland and surrounding nations to show what is possible and she has reached a career high World Ranking at the back end of 2021. 2022 has been a much tougher year for her so far though and Mayar Sherif will be a significant underdog when she takes on Ann Li, who should receive plenty of backing from the stands.

Since reaching the Semi Final of a tournament in Melbourne prior to the Australian Open, Ann Li has had a much tougher time on the Tour and she has slipped twenty places from the career best World Ranking of Number 44. That has to be a concern, but Ann Li is a young player who has plenty of potential and I do think the slump in form is something she will be able to arrest.

Ann Li is just 2-5 beginning at the Australian Open, while the American has not quite reached the numbers that she was producing in 2021. Over the last twelve months Ann Li has been a solid hard court player, but she has room for improvement and that makes this a potentially awkward First Round match if there has been a dent in the confidence.

However, Mayar Sherif is also going to be struggling with her confidence having lost seven of her eight matches played on the hard courts this season. The serve has been vulnerable and the Egyptian has only won 36% of return points played, while those numbers have not been that impressive even when taking into consideration opponents Mayar Sherif has played that are Ranked outside the top 50.

Ann Li has handled the players she would be expecting to beat in better fashion than Mayar Sherif, while the American also has won both previous matches between these players.

The first of those came at the Australian Open in January 2020, while Ann Li dominated Mayar Sherif in Melbourne a couple of months ago. Ann Li has dominated the two previous matches and has won 49% of return points played, while her first serve has been very tough for Mayar Sherif to deal with so there is every chance the American can produce a big win here.

A lack of confidence is a potential hindrance, but I think Li will know she likes the match up and I think she can clear a big spread.

Caroline Garcia - 2.5 games v Anna Bondar: The improvement in her World Ranking and entry into the top 100 is largely down to the performances Anna Bondar has produced on the clay courts. Her hard court numbers over the last twelve months are less impressive, but she did reach the Quarter Final in Lyon before her early loss at the Indian Wells Masters.

The clay court season is coming up in a couple of weeks and Anna Bondar might already be focusing on trying to have a some successes that can see her improve her World Ranking further. However, she has entered the Miami Masters and the Hungarian has won enough matches on this surface this season and over the last twelve months to believe she can take on someone who has been as erratic as Carolina Garcia.

It has been a difficult season for Caroline Garcia who is down at World Number 66 in the Rankings and who has struggled to string wins together. A Semi Final run in Lyon may have given her a boost, but the Frenchwoman was beaten in the Second Round at Indian Wells and her numbers on the hard courts over the last twelve months have been fairly average.

Caroline Garcia has generally been able to handle those players Ranked outside the top 50 and that will offer her encouragement. One of the areas that will need to be improved is the returning part of her tennis, but Caroline Garcia will feel she can at least showcase better against an opponent like Anna Bondar who has a 1-6 record when facing top 100 Ranked opponents on the hard courts.

Like her opponent, Anna Bondar has struggled with her return against some of the better players she is likely to face and that is expected to be the situation for her in the First Round.

The outcome of the spread is likely to depend on how high the percentage of First Serves found are for Anna Bondar, but she has yet to really get to grips with hard court tennis at this level. While Caroline Garcia has struggled for consistency, she has found a bit more from the return against lower Ranked players on this surface and I think the Frenchwoman can cover the wide handicap mark to move through to the Second Round.

Kaia Kanepi - 2.5 games v Maryna Zanevska: The run to the Australian Open Quarter Final was unexpected for veteran Kaia Kanepi and she won a couple of matches on her return to the Tour last week in Indian Wells. There will be some disappointment that the tournament ended at the hands of Harriet Dart, but Kaia Kanepi is producing enough solid tennis in 2022 to believe she can have another decent impact when the Miami Masters begins.

The Estonian is a pretty strong favourite to beat Maryna Zanevska, but this is a player that needs to be respected.

Maryna Zanevska lost a tight First Round match in Indian Wells, while she has a return game that makes her dangerous on the hard courts. Over the last twelve months, Maryna Zanevska has won 45% of return points played and that means there will be some pressure on Kaia Kanepi to find the level of serving that has allowed her to make such a positive start to the season.

There is no doubt that both players have decent First Serves that have to be respected, but the match could be decided by which of the two is able to get more of those in play. Kaia Kanepi has also won 45% of return points played on the hard courts in 2022, while I think there has been a significant edge in her performance on the Second Serve that should give her the edge in this First Round meeting.

Both have had a slippage in numbers when facing top 100 Ranked players, but again Kaia Kanepi's edge on the Second Serve may end up being the difference between the players.

Mentally, Kaia Kanepi has the edge having won the last two matches against Maryna Zanevska, although they are playing one another for the first time since November 2020. The last match was on the clay courts, but Kaia Kanepi has also won their previous hard court match in good fashion and I think the veteran can get the better of this match.

I would not be surprised if there are a few breaks of serve over the course of the match, but Kaia Kanepi may have enough all around game to cover here.

MY PICKS: Amanda Anisimova - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Ann Li - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Caroline Garcia - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Kaia Kanepi - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)