It was a mixed day for the Tennis Picks on Sunday, but I am looking for a strong week to turn this tournament around and just get the results moving as I would like.
This is not always easy, but I have been a touch unfortunate this week- I am always the first to be self-critical where I feel my selections have been poor, but a couple of results turning would have put this week in a much stronger place all around.
Hopefully Monday will be the start of that turnaround with the entire WTA Fourth Round scheduled to be played, while the remainder of the ATP Third Round is completed too. This is the busiest day left in the tournament in Miami and there are some big games set to head to the courts.
The conditions have been very tough for the players, but those still in the draw have done what they can and there is a big prize to be won this weekend before we move onto clay court tennis.
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 3.5 games v Alex De Minaur: It was a tough Second Round work out for Stefanos Tsitsipas and he needed a bit more time on the court than he may have hoped when seeing off JJ Wolf. The first two sets saw Stefanos Tsitsipas struggle to really impose himself on the match before running away with the decider and that will at least give him some confidence in what is likely to be tough conditions in Miami in this Third Round meeting.
It also doesn't help that Stefanos Tsitsipas is going to be facing a confident opponent in Alex De Minaur who has been enjoying his 2022 season. After a relatively poor year on the hard courts in 2021, Alex De Minuar has bounced back in 2022 and he was a much more comfortable Second Round winner than the opponent he is going to meet in the Third Round.
Alex De Minaur has not been as effective protecting the serve as Stefanos Tsitsipas, but he has been the stronger return player with his athleticism around the court and the ability to force opponents to hit one more ball being key to his success. He looks to be heading back in the right direction as far as the World Rankings are concerned, although a much tougher stretch is coming up with the clay court season soon upon us.
The real challenge for the Australian is to try and be more competitive when he has faced a top 20 Ranked opponent on the hard courts and, despite the improvement in 2022, Alex De Minaur is just 1-4 in that situation this season. A look at the numbers in those matches over a twelve month period shows the fall in the percentage of return games in which Alex De Minaur has broken serve, while his own serve has been even more vulnerable.
It is a reason I really do believe Stefanos Tsitsipas is going to get the better of Alex De Minaur, while you cannot ignore how well he has matched up in their head to head.
Stefanos Tsitsipas has won nine of their ten professional matches and that includes the last eight in a row. The Greek player has held serve in 85% of service games played between them, while Alex Di Minaur is down at 70% and the numbers harden when you only consider the seven matches played between the players on the hard courts, all won by Stefanos Tsitsipas.
At the moment confidence is an issue for Stefanos Tsitsipas and that may give Alex De Minaur an opportunity to turn the tide on the head to head, but I do think he has plenty to prove when facing the top names on the Tour. The feeling is that Stefanos Tsitsipas is still serving well enough to put some scoreboard pressure on the Australian and that could see the cracks exposed in his tennis.
In better form I woul expect Stefanos Tsitsipas to be asked to cover at least one more game than this, but the spread is still in a good spot for the World Number 5 to cover in a winning effort.
Hubert Hurkacz - 3.5 games v Aslan Karatsev: After opening the season with a title win in Sydney, the last couple of months have been much more difficult for Aslan Karatsev and inconsistent results have been the feature of his time on the Tour. He has dropped back outside the top 30 in the World Rankings and another slippage will mean losing his Seeding when it comes to the Grand Slam events and that can spiral into more poor results.
The last couple of years have been very effective for Aslan Karatsev, but his numbers have taken a serious dent in 2022 on the hard courts. The one that stands out the most is the issues he has been having when it comes to the return of serve with his break percentage dropping 9% from his 2021 numbers and the ones being produced in 2022.
That is a major drop off for a player that has never had a dominating serve and it has put Aslan Karatsev under pressure. The real surprise has been the fact that the player has lost so many matches to opponents Ranked outside the top 50 in the World Rankings and Aslan Karatsev has to be respected considering he has won all three matches against top 50 Ranked opponents on the hard courts this season.
He faces another one in the Third Round when Aslan Karatsev takes on the defending Miami Champion- Hubert Hurkacz has held 90% of service games played on the hard courts and broken in 22% of return games this season and he is still Ranked inside the top 10, although Hurkacz will need a strong tournament to hold onto that position.
Hubert Hurkacz has had some solid results on the hard courts, but he has yet to really have a stand out tournament and was beaten in the Fourth Round in Indian Wells last time out. The hard courts have been an effective surface for him and winning the title here last season may mean he is back in inspired settings, while he has been playing much stronger tennis on the surface compared with Aslan Karatsev.
These two players split two hard court matches in 2021, but it was the Hubert Hurkacz serve which had the edge in terms of the numbers.
On current form it is hard to imagine Aslan Karatsev turning the form on the heavy loss suffered at Indian Wells in the Autumn of 2021 and I do think a big serving day from Hubert Hurkacz could give him a considerable edge. It builds scoreboard pressure and Hurkacz has shown he can put enough balls back in play on the return to force mistakes from opponents and that may be the case here as I look for him to move through and with a cover too.
MY PICKS: Stefanos Tsitsipas - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Hubert Hurkacz - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Lloyd Harris - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Tommy Paul + 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Ons Jabeur @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Daria Saville - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Naomi Osaka - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Belinda Bencic - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Miami Update: 15-16, - 7.04 Units (62 Units Staked, - 11.35% Yield)
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