It looked like it was going to be a miserable day in the office for the Tennis Picks on Monday, but a couple of late winners at least limited the damage.
The Fourth Round of the ATP Miami tournament is set to be played through the day and we have a couple of the WTA Quarter Finals heading out to the court on Tuesday. My selections from the matches can be seen below.
Nick Kyrgios - 2.5 games v Jannik Sinner: These two players were supposed to meet in Indian Wells, but Jannik Sinner was suffering with an illness which meant withdrawing before the match was played. It allowed Nick Kyrgios to move through to the Quarter Final at the last Masters event, but this is a player who is performing at a very high level at the moment and looks to be much happier with his tennis than we have become used to seeing.
There are still some moments of frustration as he showed when getting into an argument with some of the crowd in the defeat against Rafael Nadal, but in the main Nick Kyrgios has been focused and he has produced some stunning numbers in 2022. His run in Miami has also been very impressive and the big serve is now being backed up with a little more focus on the return of serve, which is proving to be the key for a player looking to move back into the top 100 of the World Rankings.
Nick Kyrgios will know how tough life becomes when failing to earn automatic entry into some of the biggest events on the Tour, while he is a player that should be much closer to the top ten in the World Rankings as he once was. If he continues to serve as big as he has been, Nick Kyrgios will be a tough out for anyone left in the Miami Masters, but he has also broken in 34% of return games played and that is very impressive from any player on the Tour.
This will be another test for Nick Kyrgios, but Jannik Sinner has not really impressed in his two wins in the Miami Masters and has been pushed to the limit in both. He has been fortunate to win both matches too, but it is a shame that the layers are on top of the current form after I was given the chance to back the Australian as the underdog when they were meant to meet at Indian Wells.
Jannik Sinner has only held 81% of his service games played in Miami and he has broken in 20% of return games played and that is not really going to be good enough to beat Nick Kyrgios on his current form.
Plenty of time has already been spent on the court by the young Italian and, while I have to respect the fight being shown, I do think that could add up to have an adverse affect on him. Jannik Sinner is going to have to serve well to keep Nick Kyrgios at bay, but this is the player that I always felt was inside of Kyrgios and he looks capable of moving through to another Quarter Final on the hard courts with a good, strong win in this Fourth Round match.
Casper Ruud - 1.5 games v Cameron Norrie: This may be a Fourth Round match, but both Casper Ruud and Cameron Norrie may feel they will be able to have a very big impact at the Miami Masters if they are able to get past the other. Two players who are both Ranked inside the top 15 of the World Rankings have been very content in playing hard court tennis, but both Ruud and and Norrie are also happy on the clay courts and so the conditions in Miami look to suit their respective games.
Out of the two, it is Cameron Norrie who has won the biggest title on a hard court, but the left hander has not shown the same kind of consistency as Casper Ruud.
The numbers back that up, although it is hard to ignore the fact that Casper Ruud has yet to really find the tennis he has needed to beat top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts in a consistent manner. Both players have losing numbers against those opponents over the last twelve months, but there is no doubting that Cameron Norrie has been the more consistent and competitive of the two players when facing some of the top names on the Tour.
A real problem for Casper Ruud compared with Cameron Norrie has been the inability to fashion more breaks of serve when facing top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts.
It is something that is a factor in the match, but I do like the fact that Casper Ruud has beaten Cameron Norrie twice on the hard courts during the last twelve months. That has to give him confidence and especially as the Casper Ruud serve has been a big weapon for him in those wins, while the Norwegian has held 90% of his service games played in those two wins over Cameron Norrie.
He has also created 11 break points compared to just 2 for Cameron Norrie in those hard court matches and I do think Casper Ruud has the edge in this match. The top 20 results on the hard courts are a concern, but I do think Casper Ruud has faced the elite of the ATP Tour in the last twelve months and he will feel more comfortable in this match up.
Cameron Norrie has played really well on the Tour over the last twelve months and he is a much improved player, but Casper Ruud may be able to serve well enough to edge to the victory in a competitive match.
MY PICKS: Nick Kyrgios - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Casper Ruud - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Stefanos Tsitsipas + 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Taylor Fritz - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Belinda Bencic - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Naomi Osaka - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Miami Update: 19-21, - 9.84 Units (80 Units Staked, - 12.30% Yield)
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