Any time you finish with a winning day from the Tennis Picks has to be appreciated, but it should have been a perfect day.
Irina-Camelia Begu was the only losing selection on the day, but she won more points than her opponent and somehow still managed to cover as the underdog. That one stung, but like I said after the difficult Friday, the selection was the right one in almost all the statistical categories bar the one that actually matters.
Those kind of losses hurt, because they have no right to lose, but I can at least point to the research and say it was a good call and just needed a bit more fortune to come away on the right side.
Hopefully Sunday can build on the positive Saturday and get this Miami Masters back on track.
Alexander Zverev - 4.5 games v Mackenzie McDonald: It has been a productive twelve months for Mackenzie McDonald and that has helped him improve the World Ranking to earn direct entry into the Masters events being played. He was beaten in the Second Round at Indian Wells, but an upset of a Seeded player has taken the American through to the Third Round in Miami this week.
Mackenzie McDonald is going to have to dig deep if he is going to beat the Number 2 Seed in the draw, although Alexander Zverev has had another difficult month on the Tour. The petulant display at the end of a defeat in a Doubles match in Acapulco saw Alexander Zverev thrown out of the Singles tournament there, but the controversy probably didn't help in the early loss in Indian Wells last week.
Losing to Tommy Paul will have hurt and Alexander Zverev will not want to be upset by another American player early in this tournament. Regardless, the German has been a consistent player on the Tour and he has become someone who can be very competitive on all surfaces, but a confidence boosting performance in Miami will carry Zverev forward when the clay court events come around next month.
The serve continues to be a big weapon for Alexander Zverev, but he did struggle through a tougher than expected Second Round match against Borna Coric. Over the last twelve months on the hard courts, Alexander Zverev has broken in 25% of return games played, but in recent matches there has been some real room for improvement on this side of the court.
Alexander Zverev should be able to get into the Mackenzie McDonald service games despite the strong performance in beating Grigor Dimitrov in the Second Round. The latter has held 74% of service games played on the hard courts in 2022, but the serve is vulnerable whenever Mackenzie McDonald has stepped to play a top 20 Ranked opponent on this surface.
Over the last twelve months, Mackenzie McDonald has been in that situation in seven matches and he has held just 57% of service games played.
One of those matches came against Alexander Zverev on an indoor hard court earlier this season, although the slower conditions in Miami are not expected to impact the World Number 4. The return game was working well for Zverev that day and in their two previous matches, he has been able to force Mackenzie McDonald to be under severe pressure when it comes to the serve.
The German has also been able to hold onto his own serve without too many issues and I do think Alexander Zverev is able to pull clear for a good looking win in this Third Round match.
Casper Ruud - 3.5 games v Alexander Bublik: There is most definitely a feeling that Casper Ruud is improving at the rate of knots on the hard courts, but the next part of the season may actually be where he is most confidence. He has long been a very strong clay court player, but Casper Ruud may legitimately feel that he can challenge to win the French Open and even more so when you think of the issues that Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic could be dealing with in Paris.
The hard courts are still a work in progress for Casper Ruud, but he has produced some solid numbers on the surface and has tended to be a player that has dominated those players he is expected to beat. A key for Casper Ruud is finding a way to be a lot more competitive when he has faced top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts, but it is important to note that he has lost just three matches to those outside of those positions over the last twelve months.
Casper Ruud has held in 89% of service games played against opponents Ranked outside the top 20 in that twelve month period, but backed it up with breaks in 30% of return games. This court and conditions should be one that Ruud enjoys as he looks to earn a measure of revenge over Alexander Bublik, who beat Casper Ruud in a Davis Cup tie earlier this month.
That was also a match played on the hard courts, but Casper Ruud had previously won all three matches between the players and two of those had been played on this surface.
Alexander Bublik has a winning record over the last twelve months, but his numbers have been anything but consistent and it does feel like he is overachieving. The serve can be decent on his best day, but Alexander Bublik has a relatively average return game and that is where his vulnerabilities can be exploited by some of the better players on the Tour.
I will take nothing away from the serve when Alexander Bublik is feeling his best, but you do wonder if the conditions in Indian Wells and Miami suit his game as he would like. He gave up nine break points to a pretty average opponent in the Second Round and I think Casper Ruud can earn some revenge with a good win in this match.
There has been a significant edge in favour of Casper Ruud in their service numbers from previous matches and even the loss in the Davis Cup tie came in a match in which he had created more break points. I think the superior tennis is still being played by the Norwegian and I think he can cover this spread on his way through to the Fourth Round.
MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Casper Ruud - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Frances Tiafoe - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Thanasi Kokkinakis - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Jannik Sinner - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Elena Rybakina - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Miami Update: 11-12, - 5.96 Units (46 Units Staked, - 12.96% Yield)
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