The scheduling of the early Rounds of the ATP and WTA Masters event in Miami is very different to most tournaments of this nature- it means some players are being asked to play on back to back days early in the event and against opponents who have received a Bye through to the Second Round.
It is not ideal, especially in the tough conditions in Miami with the humidity and heat making it hard to compete.
That may be the reason that three of the five Picks I've made across the first two days of the tournament have ended in a retirement- it is a surprising number, but may just be a bit of a strange coincidence considering there has not been a host of retirements in the tournament.
Andy Murray - 4.5 games v Federico Delbonis: The move back to the clay courts cannot come quick enough for Federico Delbonis and it has been a long time since he produced strong results on the hard courts. Over the last twelve months, Federico Delbonis has won just two hard court matches and those have come against opponents Ranked at Number 570 and Number 399 in the world.
He has suffered some very one-sided losses in 2022 and Federico Delbonis has some very disappointing numbers on the surface as he has struggled to be a competitive threat to others.
A quick look at the numbers from the last twelve months does not make very good reading for the Argentinian who is Ranked at Number 36 and still very close to his career best mark. That is largely down to a very good year on the clay courts and so the upcoming season is going to be very important for Federico Delbonis as he looks to perhaps set a new mark for a career best World Ranking.
Federico Delbonis has only held 61% of service games played on the hard courts over the last twelve months and he has won just 54% of points played behind serve. That is a remarkably low number, but Federico Delbonis may find some confidence from the fact he has beaten Andy Murray before and that win came on the hard courts of Indian Wells in 2016.
Much has changed for both players since then and Andy Murray is not the player he once was- he has struggled for consistency in 2022 and the return game has not been as effective as it was during his peak run on the Tour.
Andy Murray is struggling to get back up the World Rankings and that has meant facing some of the very best players in the early Rounds of the tournaments he has entered. He has played better when facing those Ranked outside the top 20 in the World Rankings and the Andy Murray numbers are pretty good in those matches in 2022.
Expanding the look to the results over the last twelve months shows Andy Murray has been able to hold 83% of service games played on the hard courts against opponents Ranked outside the top 20. In those same matches, Murray has been able to break in 26% of return games played and I do think he can earn a measure of revenge over Federico Delbonis by beating him in the First Round in Miami.
There is no doubt that this is a big handicap mark for Andy Murray to cover in his current point of his career, but this may be the right opponent to face. Federico Delbonis has just struggled to compete with top 100 Ranked opponents on this surface and I think he may already be focused on the big clay court events coming up, which could see him come up short against the former World Number 1.
Lloyd Harris - 3.5 games v Facundo Bagnis: Last season was a very productive one for Lloyd Harris who reached a career high World Ranking in September, but it has been a tough start to 2022 for the South African. Indian Wells proved to be the first tournament in which Lloyd Harris has managed to put a win on the board, but he was beaten in the Third Round and in this Masters event he has to enter a Round earlier than he did last week.
The only positive for Lloyd Harris is that he is facing the one player he has beaten in 2022 for a second time in back to back tournaments. He needed three sets to see off Facundo Bagnis in Indian Wells, but Harris created double the amount of break points and should have perhaps gotten things done in a much more routine fashion.
Confidence can be lost pretty quickly on the Tour, but this is a big event for Lloyd Harris- he is slipping back in the World Rankings and there is no doubt that the clay courts are his weakest surface, so failing to produce a big tournament could soon hit his World Ranking significantly.
Facundo Bagnis will be feeling the opposite- the hard courts have proven to be a difficult surface for him, but he is much happier on the red dirt and the upcoming two months could be a very productive time for the Argentine.
His serve is a challenge coming out of the lefty stance, but even then, Facundo Bagnis has held 74% of service games played on the hard courts over the last twelve months. That has put a lot of pressure on his return and he has broken in just 17% of return games and I do think Lloyd Harris will have the majority of break points in this match too.
2022 has been a difficult time for Lloyd Harris with just 10% of return games ending in a break, but he managed to do that three times against Facundo Bagnis in Indian Wells. Over the last twelve months the break percentage is at 20% on the hard courts and I think Lloyd Harris will be at least good enough to frank the form of last week and win this match against the same opponent.
He could have won in straight sets in Indian Wells and I think Harris can do enough to cover this spread on his way into the Second Round.
Arthur Rinderknech - 2.5 games v Laslo Djere: Some consistency has been lacking over the last month for Arthur Rinderknech, but he has been a solid enough performer on the hard courts. This is a player that has also been pretty happy playing clay court tennis over the last year and I think that will see Arthur Rinderknech moving up the World Rankings.
His numbers are more impressive than Laslo Djere has produced over the last twelve months on this surface and the Serbian has produced his best on the red dirt. The move back to the clay courts will be welcomed by Laslo Djere, but he did win his First Round match in Indian Wells when set as the underdog and that has to be respected.
Laslo Djere has held 75% of service games played on the hard courts over the last twelve months and that will be encouraging, even if the numbers is below what is usually required at this level. The problem for Laslo Djere is that he has been unable to get his teeth into return games to make up for the slightly below average service numbers on the surface and I do think that will cause him problems against Arthur Rinderknech.
The Frenchman is not exactly known for his own returning ability on the hard courts, but he has held 85% of service games played on the surface over the last twelve months. That can build scoreboard pressure and it is something that could prove to be the difference between Arthur Rinderknech and Laslo Djere in this First Round match.
These two did play a very tight match on the clay courts last year with Laslo Djere coming out on top having protected his serve and broken twice on the day. It was a very tight match and it was actually Arthur Rinderknech who won a higher percentage of points played behind serve, but Laslo Djere played the big points more efficiently to secure the win.
Laslo Djere is a stronger clay court player than on the hard courts though and I think that will show up in this match.
Covering the spread will not be easy, but Arthur Rinderknech's edge on the serving numbers could pay dividends in this First Round match. There won't be much between them, but the scoreboard pressure may be enough to give the lower Ranked player the path through to the next Round.
Lorenzo Musetti - 1.5 games v Alexei Popyrin: Two relatively young players on the Tour have just hit the wall in terms of their results and they will meet in the First Round looking to produce a confidence boosting win. Lorenzo Musetti feels like he has more upside than Alexei Popyrin in the long-term, but the Italian has really been struggling for form and that is a worry when backing him.
This season Lorenzo Musetti has a losing run on the hard courts, while the numbers on the surface over a twelve month period are nothing to write home about. The Italian has really had a hard time moving into a position to be an effective return player and he has broken in just 16% of return games played over that time, but Lorenzo Musetti is facing someone who is having as hard a time putting up wins.
Alexei Popyrin has had much stronger hard court numbers of the two players over a twelve month period, especially on the serve, but he has struggled in 2022 with a 3-10 record on the hard courts. While he has held 80% of service games played on the hard courts, Alexei Popyrin has only broken in 12% of return games this season and that has dented the confidence of a player that is slipping towards an exit from the top 100 of the World Rankings.
In 2022, Lorenzo Musetti has a similar number when it comes to holding serve on the hard courts compare with Alexei Popyrin, but he has broken in 16% of return games played.
That is not a significant edge, but it is an edge.
Also, Lorenzo Musetti has enjoyed the match up with this opponent and the Italian has won his last three matches played against Alexei Popyrin. One of those was only last week in the Phoenix Challenger as Musetti dropped just four games against Popyrin, while the higher Ranked player has broken in 33% of return games played against Alexei Popyrin in their two previous hard court matches.
At the same time, Lorenzo Musetti has held 94% of the service games played and I think this is a match up that will give the Italian confidence enough to move through to the Second Round. With a slightly superior return game overall in 2022 and the solid match up against Alexei Popyrin, I will look for Lorenzo Musetti to do enough to get the better of this handicap mark.
MY PICKS: Andy Murray - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Lloyd Harris - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Arthur Rinderknech - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Lorenzo Musetti - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Alison Riske - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Naomi Osaka - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Simona Halep - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Anett Kontaveit - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Miami Update: 1-2, - 2.40 Units (6 Units Staked, - 40% Yield)
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