Naomi Osaka failed to serve out the match when leading 5-2 in the final set against Belinda Bencic and it was the moment which meant the Picks were going to have to settle for another mixed day of results.
Iga Swiatek was surprisingly nervous closing out her own Semi Final, but continues to pile up the sets and the victories and the Final looks like it could be a top one between two players that may be battling for multiple Slam titles in the years ahead. The WTA Tour has been desperate for a top rivalry and I do think the two Finalists in Miami are their best hope, especially in hard court events going forward.
The WTA Final is scheduled to be played on Saturday, but Friday is reserved for the two Men's Semi Finals. There is one underdog left barking in the draw, but two top ten players and another who has all of the potential to be a multiple time Grand Slam Champion and moving very quickly towards the top ten in his own right. It should be a very good day of tennis in Miami as the early hard court season winds down.
Casper Ruud - 4.5 games v Francisco Cerundolo: When the new World Rankings are released on Monday, Francisco Cerundolo will find himself close the top 50 even if he was to lose in this Semi Final. That is a career best World Ranking for the 23 year old Argentinian and will open the door for Francisco Cerundolo to really build on things when the Tour moves onto the clay courts.
His run in Miami is not over yet though as surprising as it has been to see Francisco Cerundolo reach the Semi Final. It has been an impressive tournament for a player that had limited hard court experience on the Tour and who had been beaten early in both the events in Indian Wells and Phoenix, but Francisco Cerundolo has impressed having beaten opponents that have all been Ranked at Number 57 or better this week.
Another step up is likely going to be needed for Francisco Cerundolo, although his numbers have been very impressive in Miami. The conditions may suit someone who is very happy on the clay courts, but even then you have to be impressed by any player that has held 89% of his service games played and broken in 36% of return games.
Casper Ruud is not going to improve his Ranking unless he wins the tournament in Miami, but this has still been a very important week for the Norwegian top ten player. He has not always found his best tennis against top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts, but Casper Ruud has beaten Cameron Norrie and Alexander Zverev in the last two Rounds and those are wins that will give him confidence ahead of the move onto his favourite surface.
With the top Seeds largely fallen by the wayside again, Casper Ruud has every chance of winning this big title in Miami and he is a big favourite in this Semi Final and rightly so. His hard court numbers have been impressive over the last twelve months when facing opponents outside the top 20 in the World Rankings, while Casper Ruud has held 92% of service games played this week and broken in 33% of return games.
The return numbers are slightly inferior to the ones that Francisco Cerundolo has produced, but Casper Ruud has arguably played the stronger opponents.
His experience should also be a key and I do think Casper Ruud is going to produce a level of tennis that may be difficult for a streaking Cerundolo to deal with.
It isn't easy opposing someone who is having the tournament of his career, but Casper Ruud is the superior hard court player and I do think Francisco Cerundolo's inexperience will allow the top ten player to win and find the breaks of serve to cover this mark.
Hubert Hurkacz + 2.5 games v Carlos Alcaraz: There is no doubting the talent of Carlos Alcaraz and I am a big fan of the young player already, but I am surprised to see him set as the favourite to beat Hubert Hurkacz in this Semi Final.
The defending Champion hasn't really put a foot wrong in the tournament and it is clear that Hubert Hurkacz is very happy in the conditions. The serve is proving to be a big weapon for the Polish player and he has held 93% of service games played in this tournament, while Hubert Hurkacz has stayed steady with his return as the scoreboard pressure has built up.
He has also had a little more time to prepare for this Semi Final having been scheduled to play in the early spot on Thursday compared with Carlos Alcaraz who played in the evening and was pushed that much harder than Hubert Hurkacz. Carlos Alcaraz was a little fortunate to come out on the right side of the match against Miomir Kecmanovic as he struggled with his return for much of the match, which has to be a concern when facing a server like Hubert Hurkacz.
The Spaniard has had a big tournament and backed up the strong run at Indian Wells as he moves towards the top ten of the World Rankings. His serve has been important in the conditions and Carlos Alcaraz has held 95% of his own service games, while he continues to thrive on the return and that makes him dangerous.
However, the overall numbers are just leaning towards Hubert Hurkacz and you have to believe the big serving defending Champion can do enough to keep this one very, very close.
Both have been very competitive on the hard courts and it just feels like being a close match, although I thought it may have been set as a pick 'em at worst. My slight edge is with Hubert Hurkacz so getting this number of games with the underdog is hard to ignore.
MY PICKS: Casper Ruud - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Hubert Hurkacz + 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Miami Update: 26-27, - 9.14 Units (106 Units Staked, - 8.62% Yield)
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