The late break when serving for the match in the final match of the day proved to be the difference and has taken the week from a winning position into a losing one.
But the only positive is that I can't really be unhappy with any of the selections made. It is only worse when you feel regret about any Pick you make, but that was not the case despite the losing day.
On Thursday we are down to the Third Round as the Monte Carlo Masters heats up and that means players who want to win the title are going to be asked to play every day through the remainder of the event. It looks like a very open tournament with a case to be made for a number of players and I do think the Third Round matches are highly competitive which means I have only three Picks from the eight matches set to be played.
Casper Ruud - 4.5 games v Grigor Dimitrov: It was a tougher than expected Second Round match, but Casper Ruud did what he needed to in order to progress to the next Round at the Monte Carlo Masters. He will know that he needs to be stronger in the return part of his game, but the conditions in Monte Carlo should be a little easier to deal with on Thursday compared with Wednesday and being back on the red dirt should see Casper Ruud go from strength to strength.
Others have fallen by the wayside so it was important for Casper Ruud to dig in and beat Holger Rune having recovered from difficult spots in both the first and second sets.
He should be stronger with the match under his belt and Casper Ruud is facing an opponent in Grigor Dimitrov who is far from at his most comfortable on the clay courts. The Bulgarian had a solid win in the Second Round over Dusan Lajovic and also benefited from having Wednesday as a day off, but Grigor Dimitrov is going to have to expect to be put under a lot more pressure by Casper Ruud than he has faced in this tournament so far.
Much is going to depend on the Grigor Dimitrov serve and whether he can keep Casper Ruud under pressure- earning breaks against the Norwegian has been a challenge for opponents on the clay courts so it is imperative that Dimitrov serves well and tries to stick with the top ten Ranked player he is facing.
When they met on a hard court last year, Grigor Dimitrov was able to find enough breaks of serve to push Casper Ruud, although he ended up losing in a deciding set. Playing on the clay courts look to give Casper Ruud a much stronger edge and I think that shows up in the early match at the Monte Carlo Masters as the Third Round is completed through the day.
The performance on Wednesday was not the best, but Casper Ruud has plenty more to give on the clay courts and I am happy to back him here.
David Goffin - 1.5 games v Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: Any time you earn a win like the one that Alejandro Davidovich Fokina produced in the Second Round, it can be very difficult to pick yourself up emotionally and ready yourself for the next challenge. It cannot be ignored that Davidovich Fokina has not really had as many impressive wins as the one he put together against Novak Djokovic in the Second Round, and especially not on the clay courts.
He did win plenty of clay court matches last year too, but Alejandro Davidovich Fokina plays in tight margins and the question is whether he has been able to refocus after the biggest win on his career.
Having a day off on Wednesday may actually benefit Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, but he will have to produce some top tennis to beat a confident David Goffin who won the title in Marrakech last week.
After injuries have meant a loss of form, winning that title will have just reminded David Goffin of the level he can produce on the Tour. It may have been easy to not be able to get himself ready for the Monte Carlo Masters after investing a lot of energy into winning in Marrakech, but David Goffin has looked good in his two wins here and will be heading to the court looking to book himself a Quarter Final spot.
Those injuries and loss of form mentioned have meant a couple of difficult years on the clay courts, but David Goffin has looked good so far in 2022. Sustaining the level will not be easy, but I do think the David Goffin return game may give him an edge in this Third Round match.
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has to be given plenty of respect with a solid return game of his own, but David Goffin has been serving at a considerably higher level on the clay courts. It is important to be able to do that and at least keep some of the pressure from building on you and I think the Belgian may have enough to beat out an opponent who needs to have recovered emotionally from a top win.
It would not be a massive surprise if we need three sets to separate these two players on the day, but I think David Goffin can do enough with his serve to edge to the victory.
Alexander Zverev - 3.5 games v Pablo Carreno Busta: We have not really seen the best of Pablo Carreno Busta so far this week in Monte Carlo and there will be pressure on him to pick up his level if he is going to earn a spot in the Quarter Final of this Masters event. Instead of being the higher Ranked player as he has been in the first two matches here, Pablo Carreno Busta is taking on a top ten Ranked opponent who has returned to the clay in strong form.
Alexander Zverev was perhaps fortunate to avoid a suspension from the Tour for his actions in Acapulco and he did not have the best tournaments in Indian Wells and Miami, but he did crush Federico Delbonis in the Second Round on Wednesday. He has also won a couple of matches against overmatched opponents on the surface in the Davis Cup, but the German is likely to be the first to admit that this is going to be the toughest test he has faced on the surface since losing in the French Open Semi Final last year.
The serve has been a big weapon for Alexander Zverev over the last couple of years on the red dirt and he is a productive returner which suggests he should be very comfortable on the surface. For a long time his numbers on the clay have been very impressive and Alexander Zverev will feel that his overall tennis is enough to secure his place in the Quarter Final.
Pablo Carreno Busta cannot really point to the same impressive numbers- he is holding 77% of service games on the clay courts in 2022 and breaking in 22% of return games, although the twelve month totals are stronger. The problem for the Spaniard is that those numbers have dipped significantly when facing top 50 Ranked opponents on the surface.
The same is not true for Alexander Zverev who has kept his level very high when facing the better players on the Tour and I do think he is going to have the edge against Pablo Carreno Busta in this Third Round match.
Mentally he holds the edge too having won both previous matches between these players on the Tour, although both of those were on the hard courts. The last of those was played in the 2020 US Open and I do think Alexander Zverev remains the more consistent of the two top 20 Ranked players and his serve may prove to be the key difference between them on the day.
If he serves well, the return game should find the breaks needed to win this match by a good margin.
MY PICKS: Casper Ruud - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
David Goffin - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Monte Carlo Update; 8-9, - 2.90 Units (34 Units Staked, - 8.53% Yield)
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