A couple of them have been tied up at 2-2 through the opening four games and they will at least need a Game 6, and all of the remaining First Round PlayOff Games will be covered in this thread.
The Conference Semi Finals should begin this weekend if some of the other Series are cleared up early in this week, but a new thread will be used for the opening four games of those.
Tuesday 26th April
Atlanta Hawks @ Miami Heat Game 5 Pick: After the late collapse in Game 3 and with Kyle Lowry absent from the team in Game 4, the Miami Heat showed no sign of being vulnerable and blew out the Atlanta Hawks on the road. They have moved 3-1 up in the First Round Series and have a chance to close out the show and earn some rest while waiting for the winner of the Toronto Raptors-Philadelphia 76ers Series, which needs a Game 6 after the Monday evening results.
The focus for the Heat has to be trying to pick off where they left off and I think it is telling that they have beaten the Hawks comfortably in the three wins over them before that very narrow defeat in Game 3. Miami will probably not bother risking Kyle Lowry as he rests his sore hamstring, but showed in the last game that they can perform against this opponent without him as the Heat continue to harass Trae Young.
It has long been clear that the Atlanta Hawks are reliant on the creativity and scoring power of Trae Young and shutting that avenue down has made it very difficult for the other players in the rotation. John Collins is not feeling his Basketball as he would like an even the return of Clint Capela in Game 4 was not able to change the momentum of the Series despite the fact the Hawks were entering that home game having won Game 3.
Miami have not always been an easy team to trust Offensively and it makes spreads like this one feel very big, but they have beaten the Atlanta Hawks by big margins in the three victories over them in this Series. That cannot be dismissed as the Number 1 Seed in the Eastern Conference look to close out the Series and move through to the Conference Finals.
Losing Kyle Lowry is a blow, but adjustments have been made, while Number 1 Seeds have a solid run of 14-4 against the spread in close out opportunities in the First Round of the NBA PlayOffs.
The Heat return home where the recent trend in Game 5 has also favoured that team to cover (the spot went 1-1 against the spread on Monday to improve it to 17-11 against the spread) and I do think Miami have dominated the Series.
I have to expect adjustments from the Atlanta Hawks and expect a much better game from Trae Young, but even that may not be enough. The Hawks have lost by double digits in both road games played here in the PlayOffs, while they are now 6-21 against the spread in their last twenty-seven games as the road underdog.
With the Miami Heat being a strong home favourite, I will look for them to cover on their way through to the Conference Semi Finals.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Memphis Grizzlies Game 5 Pick: One of the First Round PlayOff Series tied at 2-2 plays a pivotal Game 5 as the Number 2 Seeds Memphis Grizzlies look to bounce back from a disappointing defeat to the Minnesota Timberwolves. Both games played in Minnesota were incredibly close and we could easily have seen one of these teams leading 3-1 going into this one, but now it is all about making the adjustments needed.
The Grizzlies will feel they have underperformed in both games on the road and they are still waiting for their top player Ja Morant to take over a game and really put Memphis on his back. That is not to say that Morant has not had an impact in the Series, but the Grizzlies feel like they need him to have a big day scoring the ball to just pull this First Round Series away from the upstart Minnesota Timberwolves.
Returning home has to be a boost for the Number 2 Seed, but the Grizzlies will be looking to find a way to slow down the Minnesota Timberwolves from an Offensive point of view. It has been a challenge beyond them for much of the Series, aside from when they made a big comeback against the Timberwolves in Game 3 as the home team went super-cold from the field.
It has been something of a mixed bag for the Timberwolves- in their two wins they have scored at least 119 points, but in their two losses they have not reached triple digits. You have to imagine the Grizzlies will make the adjustments to at least pull the Timberwolves back from the Game 4 Offensive output and that is much easier to do at home where the fans are behind you.
Memphis do have some questions to answer about their own Offensive showings and that is, again, where Ja Morant has to begin to try and takeover both as a facilitator and a scorer.
I do think the Grizzlies can bounce back in this one and take the lead in the Series though and I am expecting them to make the adjustments to do that.
For starters, Memphis have generally dominated the Minnesota Timberwolves when hosting them, and they are also 11-3 against the spread in their last fourteen following a loss.
The Grizzlies have been a solid team to back on a couple of days rest like they have in Game 5, while they are also 5-1 against the spread in their last six as the home favourite.
Number 2 Seeds have tended to be very good at bouncing back from losses in the First Round of the NBA PlayOffs and those teams are 12-3 against the spread following a defeat in the opening Round of the post-season. Those teams are also covering at a 66% clip when favoured by at least 4.5 points like the Grizzlies are in Game 5.
Minnesota will feel they have gotten over any mental vulnerabilities by winning Game 4 after losing Game 3 in historical fashion, but they are just 3-9 against the spread in their last twelve as the road underdog and I think the Memphis Grizzlies will find the plays to do just enough to cover this mark.
Wednesday 27th April
Chicago Bulls @ Milwaukee Bucks Game 5 Pick: After splitting the first two games in this First Round Series, the Chicago Bulls had to be returning home and feeling very confident about their position. It would have only strengthened their belief when they heard that the Milwaukee Bucks would be without Khris Middleton through the remainder of the Series, but the Bulls have not been able to produce the same intensity as Game 2 and have suffered back to back home blowout losses.
Now they are on the brink of being dumped out of the PlayOffs and the injury bug has not been one that they have been able to avoid either.
The entire Series rested on how much of an impact DeMar DeRozan, Nicola Vucevic and Zach LaVine would be able to have, but the latter of those names has not travelled to Milwaukee. He might not be available for a Game 6 either, but the Bulls have to find a way to produce one big effort on the road and try and bring this First Round Series back home.
All of the momentum is with the Milwaukee Bucks who have been able to do what they like as they have won the last two games by an average of 18 points per game. In their three wins, they have managed to limit the output of the top three names the Bulls will run onto the court and that has seen the Bucks keep them under triple digits with the Defensive intensity particularly strong in both road wins.
Of course the news about LaVine has only seen the Bucks being asked to cover a very big number in Game 5 of the Series, but they have made it a habit of blowing out the Chicago Bulls in recent games.
Much will depend on the Chicago mentality, but they have not really been able to make the adjustments they would have liked in this Series and the blowout defeats are a big concern.
Simply put, the Bulls have not shot well enough and the Bucks have had the intensity around the boards to make sure there are not too many second chance shots being offered to their opponents. At the same time, Milwaukee have largely been comfortable picking their spots around the court to find the open shooter and players have stepped up in the absence of Middleton to help Milwaukee move into a position to face the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference Semi Finals.
Covering spreads like this won't be easy with the feeling that key players will be pulled if the Milwaukee Bucks build another big lead as happened in the Fourth Quarter in each of the last two games. However, I do think the Bucks have played well enough Defensively to believe even the back up players can complete the win and cover down the stretch and I think they will beat the Bulls by a wide margin for a third straight time after losing Game 2.
Denver Nuggets @ Golden State Warriors Game 5 Pick: A poor run in the middle of the first half allowed Game 4 to get away from the Golden State Warriors, but even then they had moments in the Fourth Quarter where it looked like they may yet complete the sweep.
There will be no panic in the Warriors locker room as they head back home for Game 5 and they will feel they have a good match up with the Denver Nuggets that should see them through to the Conference Semi Finals. Major issues for the Denver Nuggets has been finding enough stops and that becomes that much more difficult when playing on the road in the post-season compared with the home games.
Nikola Jokic continues to try and put the Nuggets on his back, but his support players have lacked the consistency needed and it is unlikely Denver would risk either Michael Porter Jr or Jamal Murray in this Series... At least unless it lands at Game 7, which is very unlikely.
Matching the scoring has not always been the problem for the Denver Nuggets, but they are not really able to stop the Golden State Warriors who could have Steph Curry back in the line up.
The two home wins in this Series have been very comfortable for the Warriors and they are going to be keen to wrap this one and get some rest in before any Conference Semi Final Series begins.
While the Warriors have been pretty consistent when scoring, Game 4 was the weakest performance from a Defensive point of view and I do think Golden State are likely to get back to basics in this one and ensure they are moving through without the need to return to the altitude of Denver.
Denver did well to avoid the sweep, but being able to put together another perfect Offensive showing to win here looks tough. They have not played well as the big underdog this season and the Warriors look like a team that have the depth in their rotation to find the big shots and pull clear in this one and not offer Denver too much encouragement to believe this is a Series and a deficit that can be salvaged.
The Warriors are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven as the home favourite and I think they will do enough to cover this big mark.
Thursday 28th April
Philadelphia 76ers @ Toronto Raptors Game 6 Pick: After opening a 3-0 lead in the First Round Series, a lead that no team has ever blown in the NBA PlayOffs, the Philadelphia 76ers may just be feeling the panic as they head into Game 6 north of the border. An injury picked up by Joel Embiid during Game 3 has not kept him out of action, but there is no doubt that the best player on the 76ers roster is not playing at full tilt right now.
It has added to the pressure on the role players and they have simply not been able to pick up the slack with the Toronto Raptors improving their Defensive intensity in each of the last two games. James Harden in particularly has been called upon to do more, but all doesn't seem well in Philadelphia and that has meant the pressure is beginning to increase and increase.
Doc Rivers has been fending off questions about the collapses his previous teams have had in the post-season and he will be desperate to avoid becoming the first Head Coach to blow a 3-0 lead. Some are suggesting he will be fired if the 76ers are beaten in this Series, while others in the City of Brotherly Love are suggesting there is very little between Rivers and Harden and that the latter is deliberately underperforming.
That is not easy to believe, especially as James Harden was desperate to join the team and leave the Brooklyn Nets, but I do think he is no longer the player he once was. Unfortunately, expectations take time to match the reality and so the 76ers are feeling the pinch with the likes of Tobias Harris and Tyrese Maxey are struggling to replicate earlier efforts from the Series.
Nick Nurse has to be very happy with what he has seen from his Toronto Raptors team that has been missing Fred VanVleet- others have stepped up without him and the size and intensity of the Raptors is going to be difficult to shake off, especially if they dominate the boards as they did in Game 5.
Momentum is with the Raptors, but historically road teams have been very good in Game 6 of the First Round Series and especially those that are looking to close out a Series. Even those that may feel all the momentum is with the Toronto Raptors have to be wary that those teams who have recovered from 3-0 down to 3-2 are just 3-10 straight up when playing Game 6.
I have to believe the 76ers do have one more big effort in them and winning for a second time in Canada can be achieved, even if the two games here have been very competitive.
As bad as things have been the last couple of games, the 76ers may actually be playing a team with plenty of pressure on their shoulders as they look to complete a historical comeback. Only three previous teams have even forced a Game 7 after being down 3-0, while the fans will be arriving at the Arena truly believing their team can become the first to win a Series after losing the first three games.
Philadelphia were punched in the face very early in the Game 5 loss and I think they will come out a lot more focused and ready to make the adjustments to get over the line. Everyone seems to be favouring the Toronto Raptors, but that should also help the 76ers who cannot be nearly as bad as they were last time out.
This is a huge test for the entire 76ers roster, but they have been able to be better around the boards in the games before Game 5 and I think they will match the intensity shown by the Raptors in this one. The size and depth of the Raptors rotation will make this a challenge and the road environment can be tough, but the 76ers have shown they can handle it before and making a stronger start could be enough to edge to the victory and a place in the Conference Semi Finals where the Miami Heat will be waiting.
Phoenix Suns @ New Orleans Pelicans Game 6 Pick: This was not supposed to be a First Round Series that would trouble the Number 1 Seeded Phoenix Suns too much, but injuries have shifted the Series this way and that. Devin Booker is expected to return for the Phoenix Suns in Game 6, although he will be on limited minutes, while the top Seed in the Western Conference blew out the New Orleans Pelicans in Game 5 to take a 3-2 lead in the First Round.
None of the teams have managed to win two in a row though and so the Pelicans will return home with plenty of belief, despite the manner of the defeat in Game 5.
Brandon Ingram was the big concern for New Orleans, but he looks to have escaped serious injury and is trending towards being available for this one. The Pelicans will need Ingram and CJ McCollum at their best if they are going to force a Game 7 back in Phoenix, but it does feel the Suns have the momentum and teams in the First Round have tended to close out a Series on the road if they have been forced to do that in Game 6.
Number 1 Seeds in both Conferences have largely dominated their First Round Series in recent years and there has not been a Game 7 involving one of those in this Round since 2014. Those teams are also 14-5 against the spread in their last nineteen close out situations in the First Round, although the Miami Heat without Jimmy Butler and Kyle Lowry failed to cover in their own winning effort when they moved into a 3-1 lead against the Atlanta Hawks earlier this week.
Barring Game 3, the rest of the games in this Series has been won in dominant fashion by the winning team and I think the Phoenix Suns are going to have enough to win for a second time on the road at the New Orleans Pelicans.
Rebounding will be key, while the Pelicans have been the stronger team shooting the three ball, with both factors giving them a chance to keep this one close. However, I do think Devin Booker's return will give the whole Phoenix Suns team a boost and they can become the latest road team to cover in a Game 6 in a winning effort.
The Suns are 16-7 against the spread when favoured by less than 5 points this season and I do think they may have broken the back of this First Round Series with the dominant win in Game 5. Playing on the road is always more difficult for role players, but I think the Suns will do enough to hold off a New Orleans rally after weathering the early storm and it can lead Phoenix through to the Conference Semi Finals.
Dallas Mavericks @ Utah Jazz Game 6 Pick: This has been a First Round Series dominated by injury news and the impact that has had on the two teams.
The Dallas Mavericks did not have Luka Doncic available for the first three games of the Series and they were unsurprisingly set as the underdog in each of those. That was not a situation that the Mavericks would have wanted, but the players have stepped up without Doncic and helped Dallas into a 2-1 lead after three games before an incredibly narrow loss in Game 4.
Once again the momentum is with the Dallas Mavericks having blown out the Utah Jazz at home in Game 5 and they are now set as the favourite on the road to complete the Series win.
A part of that is down to the fact that Donovan Mitchell has picked up an injury- the best player on the Utah Jazz roster is rumoured to want to leave at the end of the season, but he is focused and is looking to play in Game 6 even if he is not at 100%. However, those injuries add up and I do think it makes things very difficult for the Utah Jazz as they look to stamp their authority back on a Series where they have struggled.
Game 5 was a historical struggle as the Utah Jazz went ice cold from the three point range and that was a main factor in the blowout loss. Adding to the woes was the struggles on the boards, although there is no way this Jazz team can be as miserable from the distance for a second game in a row.
Even then, the Jazz have struggled throughout the Series and I do think the Dallas Mavericks are so much more confident with Luka Doncic back in the rotation. They seem to be able to do what they like to break down the strong Utah Defensive schemes and it is very difficult for the Jazz to keep up if the game develops into a shootout.
Another road team looking to cover on their way through in Game 6 has to be backed here.
The Mavericks have been very strong as a short spread favourite, while recent years have shown the road team have been very strong in a Game 6 close out situation like the one faced by Dallas on Thursday.
Utah will be more competitive than Game 5 without a doubt, but I still expect the stronger looking Dallas Mavericks team to come out on top.
Friday 29th April
Memphis Grizzlies @ Minnesota Timberwolves Game 6 Pick: There can't have been too many times that back to back PlayOff games in the NBA have ended by a single point, but that is the case in the last remaining active First Round Series in 2022. The Minnesota Timberwolves squared the Series with a single point win in Game 4, but Ja Morant came up big for the rallying Memphis Grizzlies to secure a one point win for the Number 2 Seed in Game 5.
Being back home will help the Timberwolves as they look to level up this Series for a second time and the two games here have been massively competitive. In fact the entire First Round has been a tough for both teams and there really hasn't been much between them.
The Timberwolves have been the superior three point shooting team and that has kept them going in this one, but it is Memphis who have dominated the shot count in each of the last two games. That puts pressure on Minnesota to keep making their shots and avoid having a cold streak like the one that cost them Game 3 when blowing a huge lead.
There is an inconsistency about the Memphis Grizzlies which makes them a very vulnerable Number 2 Seed in the loaded Western Conference. You would expect the other three teams that have already made the Conference Semi Finals to all feel they have the beating of the Grizzlies, but games are played on the court and Memphis will be desperate to continue to show progression as a young team by moving past the First Round in which they exited the 2021 NBA PlayOffs.
Winning on the boards is a key for the road team just to prevent the second chance points that the Minnesota Timberwolves would love to pick up if their three point shooting is a little off. So far in the Series they have been hitting a very good clip, but it is a pressurised situation for a team who have plenty of talented players on the roster.
There really has not been much between these teams throughout the Series, but Memphis may have earned a real mental blow by winning Game 5 in the manner they did.
On Thursday, the road teams in Game 6 won all three games played and have improved the record of those teams to 27-9 against the spread in the First Round of the PlayOffs. Closing out the Series was achieved by all of those teams on Thursday too and those teams are now on a 17-7 run both straight up and against the spread when looking for a close out win in Game 6.
The layers cannot really separate them, but I think the Grizzlies are the only team who have managed to win two in a row in the Series and they can do that here. It won't be easy, but I think the Grizzlies are just a little more consistent with their approach to their Basketball and that can make all the difference in what is expected to be a tense Game 6.
MY PICKS: 26/04 Miami Heat - 7.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
26/04 Memphis Grizzlies - 6 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
27/04 Milwaukee Bucks - 12 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
27/04 Golden State Warriors - 9 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
28/04 Philadelphia 76ers - 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
28/04 Phoenix Suns - 2 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
28/04 Dallas Mavericks - 1.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
29/04 Memphis Grizzlies - 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
First Round Update: 17-15, - 1.42 Units (34 Units Staked, - 4.18% Yield)
Play In Tournament: 2-4, - 2.09 Units (6 Units Staked, - 34.83% Yield)
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