A solid week has been put in the books, but once again we have reached Monday and the Tour has moved on to fresh tournaments.
The WTA Tour will take a short break with Fed Cup matches the priority, but the ATP Masters at Monte Carlo feels like the true beginning of the run to the French Open.
This is a tournament that has plenty of matches scheduled over the first four days of the event with the Final set to be played on Sunday. Conditions look to be decent for much of the week, but it could be slightly windy in the middle of the week and wet towards the end.
I did have one pick from the Monte Carlo Masters on Sunday, but that has not opened the week in the way I would have wanted, although Monday is a much busier day for the tournament as well as the Tennis Picks.
Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - 2.5 games v Karen Khachanov: The Monte Carlo Masters may be the one Masters event that players can choose to skip without affecting potential Ranking points, but it is a big event to start the clay court season for many. In most years a strong field will come together and this year's event feels no different with that point underlined by this quality looking First Round match.
Diego Sebastian Schwartzman and Karen Khachanov have had some tough battles on the Tour already and they have split four meetings two apiece. All of those have come on the hard courts, a surface you would expect to favour Karen Khachanov, but this is a match on the clay courts and I would expect Diego Sebastian Schwartzman to have enough to move through to the Second Round.
This is the first match that Karen Khachanov will be playing on the red dirt in 2022 and he has been a pretty average player on the surface since 2019. He only has a 16-15 record on the clay courts in that time and the numbers have been pretty steady, although unspectacular in that time.
Now Karen Khachanov has to face Diego Sebastian Schwartzman who had a strong Golden Swing on the South American hard courts between the Australian Open and the North American Masters events played on the same surface. The Argentine reached the Semi Final in Cordoba, before coming up short in the Final at both the Buenos Aires and Rio de Janeiro tournaments where the likes of Casper Ruud and Carlos Alcaraz have proved too strong for Schwartzman.
The serve is vulnerable and I do think that makes it hard to trust Diego Sebastian Schwartzman to cover a spread like this one, but he has long been a very productive return player on the clay courts. I expect that to be a difference maker for Schwartzman, especially on this surface, although both players have been able to earn plenty of breaks of serve against the other in their previous four matches.
You do have to expect the Karen Khachanov serve to have had an 'easier' time holding serve on the hard courts against Diego Sebastian Schwartzman than he has had in their previous matches. Now Karen Khachanov has to take on a player who wins a considerable percentage more points on the return on the clay than the hard courts and one who has a much stronger break percentage on this surface and I think Diego Sebastian Schwartzman will do enough to eventually cover this mark on his way past this opponent.
Jannik Sinner - 3.5 games v Borna Coric: Injuries may have seen Jannik Sinner forced to withdraw from both North American hard court Masters events played over the last month, but longer term issues have really stunted Borna Coric's career.
A twelve month absence from the Tour was ended when Borna Coric was beaten relatively early in both the Indian Wells and Miami tournaments. He missed the entirety of the clay court season in 2021 and has actually not played in a clay court event since being upset in the First Round of the 2020 Roland Garros which was played in the Autumn of the pandemic hit year.
It will take some time for Borna Coric to get used to competing on the Tour at this level again, but he will likely pick up some Wild Cards into the biggest events as he currently sits at World Number 199. The problem for Borna Coric is that he is likely to be handed some very difficult draws in tournaments he enters and that is the case here in Monte Carlo.
Jannik Sinner will feel he had an underwhelming clay court campaign in 2021 and there is room for improvement. Blisters saw his tournament end prematurely in Miami, but the Italian has been practicing with Novak Djokovic here and I think he should be ready to compete.
Playing on the clay will likely mean his superior match fitness compared with Borna Coric is very important and I think that will give Jannik Sinner every chance of breaking down his opponent in this good looking First Round match. When Borna Coric last played on the clay courts, he did not return as he would have liked and I think that could be problematic for him as he rebuilds his career.
I do think Borna Coric can have success against this Jannik Sinner serve, but the younger player is an improving force and he should have enough all around game to beat an opponent who is still not quite up to full speed on his return to the Tour.
Marin Cilic - 4.5 games v Jo-Wilfred Tsonga: The last few years have been very difficult for Jo-Wilfred Tsonga on the Tour as age and injury has caught up with him and it is no surprise that he has decided Roland Garros will be the perfect place to end his career.
He is likely to take in a couple of tournaments in the lead to the last French Open of his career, but Jo-Wilfred Tsonga has slipped outside the top 200 of the World Rankings. The key for the Frenchman will be to be as injury-free as possible going into the French Open so he is able to at least complete his matches, but it has felt very clear that Jo-Wilfred Tsonga is not really able to compete at this level as he once could.
Last year Jo-Wilfred Tsonga was beaten in all three clay court matches played and he struggled both on serve and return. In those losses, Tsonga managed to hold 70% of service games played, but he was only able to break in just shy of 8% of return games played and that led to some heavy defeats.
The serve has been productive in 2022 for Jo-Wilfred Tsonga, but those have been on the hard courts and it is always that much tougher to hold on the clay courts.
Jo-Wilfred Tsonga is taking on another veteran in Marin Cilic who had a pretty disappointing 2021 on the clay courts, but who has looked strong in 2022 in the build up to the clay court season. Marin Cilic will be the first to admit he has not always found his best tennis since the Australian Open, but a couple of those losses have been against solid competitors on the Tour and I am simply doubting that Tsonga remains one of those.
Marin Cilic will feel his serving gives him enough of an edge over Jo-Wilfred Tsonga to work his way through to the Second Round without too many concerns. His return game is also significantly stronger than Tsonga's at this time in their careers and I think that helps on the way to a cover of a big spread.
These two are meeting one another for the first time since 2018, but both Jo-Wilfred Tsonga and Marin Cilic will be very familiar with the strengths and weaknesses of the other. Both previous clay court matches have been won by Marin Cilic and he has not been broken by Jo-Wilfred Tsonga in those matches, while the big Croatian has broken in 16% of return games played.
This will also be the second time they have met one another in Monte Carlo and I do think Marin Cilic can win by a slightly wider margin than the 6/3, 7/6 victory he earned in April 2015 when both were Ranked inside the top 15 of the World Rankings.
MY PICKS: Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Jannik Sinner - 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 4.5 Games @ 2.20 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jaume Munar - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Pablo Carreno Busta - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Monte Carlo Update: 0-1, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Season 2022: - 16.48 Units (444 Units Staked, - 3.71% Yield)
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