The two ATP Semi Finals both returned winners on Friday evening, but the Miami Masters has proved to be a tough tournament for the Tennis Picks.
I am disappointed with the efforts since the Australian Open, when a winning record was produced, but I also think I've been mainly happy with the way the Picks were identified and a couple of 'bad luck' moments proved to be key to the week.
Still, I am hoping to round out the week with the momentum picked up on Friday and I will be looking for two winners when the WTA and ATP Finals are both played over the weekend. The clay court season will begin on Monday with four tournaments scheduled before the move to Monte Carlo for the ATP Tour, the next big Masters event on the calendar.
Iga Swiatek - 2.5 games v Naomi Osaka: It sounds extremely harsh to criticise a player who is performing at the kind of level that Iga Swiatek is producing, but I did think there were one or two nerves at the very end of her victory over Jessica Pegula in the Semi Final. She actually failed to serve out the match in her first chance to do so, but Iga Swiatek held herself together the second time around and more than deserved her spot in the Miami Final.
It has been six years since a player has been able to complete the North American double at Indian Wells and Miami, but Iga Swiatek is a pretty big favourite to do that. You can't argue with the form guide in general and her return has proved to be a big difference maker, although the soon to be World Number 1 is also a very effective server on this surface.
She hasn't dropped a set since the Fourth Round at Indian Wells and I am going to put some of the late drama in her Semi Final down to the fact Iga Swiatek was playing on back to back days. Nerves can be a problem for players when they set in, but you do have to think the amount of wins that have been put together will help as Swiatek gathers herself and prepares for this big Final.
This is an important match for Iga Swiatek to show that is the top player on the Tour right now as she prepares to face Naomi Osaka. We all know how strong Naomi Osaka can be on the hard courts and she showed her character in coming from a set down to beat Belinda Bencic in her own Semi Final, while the four Grand Slam titles won on a hard court means Osaka remains a massive challenge to overcome on the surface.
Naomi Osaka has played just as well as Iga Swiatek in this tournament and even dropping her first set of the Miami Masters did not distract Osaka in the Semi Final. She has been serving really well throughout the tournament, although there is room for improvement for Naomi Osaka from the Semi Final performance.
Her return is perhaps not as strong as the one that Iga Swiatek will bring to the court, but Naomi Osaka has a big all-around game and her heavy groundstrokes will certainly put the pressure on any opponent she faces.
There are some question marks about the mental strength of Naomi Osaka and this is a pressurised environment she has not had to deal with for a long time. I am not suggesting a four time Grand Slam Champion won't be able to cope, but I do think the opponent will also keep Naomi Osaka in a tough place and Iga Swiatek has had time to prepare for this match as she looks to win another big title on the hard courts in 2022.
These players first and only match came on the hard courts in 2019 in Canada and was won by Naomi Osaka- however, Iga Swiatek is a much better player now and playing at World Number 1 level pretty consistently. That level may be enough to eventually break through Naomi Osaka's game and I think Iga Swiatek can continue her dominating form with a strong win in the Miami Open Final on Saturday.
Iga Swiatek looks to have the edge when it comes to the return of serve and that is where I think this Final can be won.
MY PICKS: Iga Swiatek - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Miami Update: 28-27, - 5.70 Units (110 Units Staked, - 5.18% Yield)
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