Another winning day has put the Monte Carlo Tennis Picks into a positive position for the week, but we are not even halfway through the tournament and that means there is still work to do.
A number of players taking to the court on Wednesday will be playing in their first clay court event of the season and conditions have been pretty tough with plenty of wind around. That can be very tough for players not accustomed to the surface beneath their feet, but the move from the hard to the clay courts, and vice versa, tend to be pretty comfortable for most compared with the move onto the grass courts that will happen in June.
Wednesday is a busy day at the tournament and I am looking for my six selections to help return another winning day to keep the positive run going.
Albert Ramos-Vinolas v Cameron Norrie: A veteran of the ATP Tour, Albert Ramos-Vinolas now spends a large amount of his time on his favourite surface and he will be looking forward to the next few weeks with the Tour going through the main portion of the clay court season. Players like Albert Ramos-Vinolas remain very dangerous on this surface and especially when playing against those who are not as confident on the red dirt, but who may be Ranked considerably higher than those who spend their time predominantly playing clay court events.
Most surfaces are beginning to feel uniform so the clay court specialists of old are perhaps not as common in the draws as they would have been, but there are clearly some top names that have struggled for consistency on this surface.
Cameron Norrie is not one of them having moved into the top ten of the World Rankings earlier this month after a hugely productive twelve months on the Tour. Last season Cameron Norrie has a number of deep runs in big clay court events and finished up with a 16-5 record on the surface, so he has to be respected, although the British player is going to be performing for the first time on the red dirt in 2022.
As mentioned, Albert Ramos-Vinolas plays plenty of clay court tennis and he won a title on this surface during the Golden Swing in South America. He has already secured his first win at Monte Carlo and you do have to believe that the Spaniard has the tennis to upset a top ten opponent in the Second Round.
Albert Ramos-Vinolas has far from an overwhelming game and his serve can be vulnerable on the clay courts, but the lefty has been a pretty solid return player and that has helped. There is no doubt that Cameron Norrie may have the more consistent serve of the two southpaws playing, but his return game has not been as effective as his opponent's and I do think a maiden clay court match could see Norrie come up short.
The British player did beat Albert Ramos-Vinolas for the first time last year, although that was on the grass courts of Queen's Club in West London. Earlier in the same year Cameron Norrie had come up a little short in losing to Ramos-Vinolas in the Final of Estoril, a clay court event, and all three previous defeats to this opponent had been in clay court matches.
Slightly stronger returning proved to be the key for Albert Ramos-Vinolas in the clay court Final in Estoril and I think that may be the case in Monte Carlo too. It should be noted that Cameron Norrie has gone from strength to strength in the time since these players last met on the clay, but the veteran know-how of the Spaniard could just see him work his way past the higher Ranked opponent.
Andrey Rublev - 4.5 games v Alex De Minaur: Both of these players have proven to be much happier on the hard courts than the other surfaces on the Tour, but Andrey Rublev has been more than a decent clay courter in recent years too. That is more than can be said for Alex De Minaur who has struggled to impose his tennis on the slower surface where his own tennis can be a bit more vulnerable.
A win in the First Round will have given the Australian a boost, but since 2018 Alex De Minaur only has a 6-11 record on the clay courts and that includes the win he has secured in the First Round. Last season was a bit more productive than the previous two years, but Alex De Minaur will know his level has to be improved significantly if he is going to have an impact in tournaments over the next couple of months.
Alex De Minaur has held 75% of his service games and broken in 26% of return games played on the clay courts over the last twelve months, but the break percentage has dropped significantly when he has been faced with a top 50 Ranked opponent on this surface.
He is just 1-7 against top 50 Ranked opponents on a clay court in his career and Andrey Rublev is a better clay courter than some may think, even if he is not as strong as he is on a hard court.
The World Number 8 had a poor showing at the Miami Masters, but that should mean he is well rested for this tough clay court portion of the season. 2020 was a strong year on the clay courts, but even last season Andrey Rublev held 82% of his service games on the surface and broke in 26% of return games and I do think his serve will prove to be the difference in this Second Round match.
Andrey Rublev did suffer some very disappointing defeats on the clay last year, but he should have enough of an edge on the serve to win a match like this one.
He has never beaten Alex De Minaur, which could play a mental part in the match, but both previous defeats were back in 2018 and Andrey Rublev is a much better player now. The surface also should give him a slight edge with the likelihood that Alex De Minaur is going to have to work much harder to hold serve than his opponent and that can wear players down on the clay courts with every point a challenge at times.
It is a big mark, but I think Andrey Rublev will find the breaks of serve to earn a solid win on the scoreboard.
Casper Ruud - 5.5 games v Holger Rune: Wisdom teeth issues meant the Miami Masters Runner Up was not able to take part in the clay court event held in Houston, but Casper Ruud should be up to full speed to take part at the Monte Carlo Masters.
Casper Ruud reached the Semi Final here in 2021 and matched that run with another Semi Final at the Madrid Masters before a very productive summer in which he became the first player to win three tournaments in three weeks on the ATP Tour since Andy Murray back in 2011.
All of those were won on the clay courts and he won another title in Buenos Aires and there is no doubt that Casper Ruud will be approaching the French Open as a genuine contender to win the title. His run in Miami has seen the Norwegian reach World Number 7, a new career best, but there may be further improvement made if Casper Ruud can put together the kind of clay court tennis he has proven to be able to play in recent years.
It has long been his favoured surface and I am not anticipating too much time being needed to become comfortable on the red dirt. Novak Djokovic's exit in the tournament has opened up the top half of the draw and Casper Ruud has to feel he can go even further than the Semi Final run in 2021.
The numbers have been incredibly impressive on the clay courts with Casper Ruud holding 87% of his service games on the surface over the last twelve months and backing that up with breaks in 32% of return games played. It makes Casper Ruud one of the most effective clay courters on the Tour and I do think he is going to get the better of young Danish player Holger Rune.
You have to credit Holger Rune for digging in and working his way past Aslan Karatsev in the First Round, while he has come through the Qualifiers so the conditions at this tournament will offer no surprises compared with his opponent who will play his first match here. Holger Rune did need three sets to beat his last opponent and spent a considerable amount of time on the court, but he has won a title on the clay courts at Challenger level this year and that should offer him some belief.
However, Holger Rune would be the first to admit that this is a big step up in class for him and Casper Ruud underlined the gap that existed between them in 2021 by handing out two very one-sided wins over him on the hard courts. One of those was right here in Monte Carlo and I think Rune may still not have moved on enough to make this match much closer if Casper Ruud brings his best tennis to the court.
In their two clay court matches in 2021, Casper Ruud dictated behind serve and held 93% of the service games played. The real difference was made by Ruud on the return though and he broke the Holger Rune serve in an incredible 71% of return games played, while winning 60% of the return points played.
The young Danish player will have learnt from those experiences, but the feeling is that Casper Ruud will be able to keep the pressure on him with his return, while protecting the serve to offer little encouragement to the underdog. While it is unlikely to result in another wide, one-sided win, I do think Casper Ruud will find the breaks needed to secure a relatively comfortable victory over this opponent again and get his favourite part of the season underway with a solid win.
MY PICKS: Albert Ramos-Vinolas @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Andrey Rublev - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Casper Ruud - 5.5 Games @ 2.20 Bet365 (2 Units)
Lorenzo Sonego - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Jannik Sinner - 3.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet365 (2 Units)
Pablo Carreno Busta - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Monte Carlo Update: 6-5, + 1.28 Units (22 Units Staked, + 5.82% Yield)
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