That is fairly surprising considering how many matches were heading to the courts as the Madrid Masters WTA event begun First Round action along with the two ATP tournaments being played this week. However, I was simply not comfortable enough to back any of those that made it down my list and I have to accept the results as they are.
Hopefully there are plenty of winners still to find over the first of the two big Masters events played on the clay courts before the French Open begins in a little under a month from now. Players will be looking to round into some form, but it should be noted that the conditions in Madrid have long been very different to those faced in Rome and Paris and so there are a few more upsets that can occur at this event compared with the others.
It has been a good week for the Tennis Picks so far, but I am looking for more as selections from Estoril and Munich are also going to be in this thread.
I will then update results for the 'Weekly Update' and a separate results tally for the Madrid Masters with that event going through to a week on Sunday.
Friday looks to be a busy day for the Picks with plenty of matches passing the tests I've set to try and put a winning season in the books.
Emma Raducanu - 3.5 games v Tereza Martincova: Another Coaching change has been made by Emma Raducanu and the young player has very little experience on the clay courts, but she can play with some freedom over the coming month with all that in mind. The early form on the surface has been decent and Raducanu gave Iga Swiatek a tough battle in Stuttgart on this unfamiliar surface, although the conditions in Madrid will be somewhat different to what she will be facing in other clay court tournaments.
At least she will know what to expect when facing Tereza Martincova having beaten her in a Billie Jean King Cup match earlier this month. It was a tough match, but Emma Raducanu looked the stronger player for much of the time spent on court and I do think the British player can frank that form with a win in the First Round here.
It has been a mixed year on the Tour for Tereza Martincova, but she has reached a career best World Ranking in February and that will offer some encouragement.
However, the Czech player has never been the most consistent on the clay courts and she has lost both matches played on this surface in 2022. Tereza Martincova will usually get plenty of first serves into play, but it isn't much more than a rally starter in the main part and that will allow aggressive players like Emma Raducanu the chance to play first strike tennis and put her opponent under pressure.
The Tereza Martincova return also has room for improvement on the clay courts and the early form of the Emma Raducanu serve on this surface offers some encouragement. I do think there will be players with the clay court specialism that will cause Raducanu problems and there are some top clay courters on the Tour, but this is a match that should be one in which the British player is comfortable by what she is seeing in front of her.
When these two met in the Billie Jean King Cup, Emma Raducanu was the slightly stronger return player throughout the match and that helped her win in straight sets. There will be some rallies that see both players taking control of the points, but Emma Raducanu served well in Stuttgart on an indoor clay court and the faster conditions we tend to find in Madrid can suit her game a little more than it will Tereza Martincova's.
She may still be a work in progress overall, but this is a match that Emma Raducanu should be winning and I think she can move through to the Second Round.
Maria Sakkari - 2.5 games v Madison Keys: A gastro illness was the reason given for Maria Sakkari's decision to withdraw from her match in Stuttgart, but I expect a much stronger player to arrive in Madrid.
The run to the Semi Final at the French Open last year was unexpected, but Maria Sakkari has long been a competent player on the clay courts. She looks to have the tennis that should be very effective on the surface, although Maria Sakkari has not always had the best time in Madrid.
However, Maria Sakkari will be pretty happy with the First Round match against Madison Keys, a player that is very much not at her best on the clay. The American is playing in her first European clay court event in 2022, but there has been very little time spent on the clay over the last couple of years from Madison Keys and this has been a tough match up for her too.
Last season Madison Keys finished up at 3-4 on the clay and that was largely down to the two wins secured at the French Open. Her numbers behind the first serve are relatively decent, but Keys has not really shown the patience to build points on the surface like you need to and that leaves her vulnerable in matches she plays on clay courts.
The big first serve will have to be given the respect it deserves, but Maria Sakkari will feel she gets plenty out of her own first serve to match the one Madison Keys brings to the court. However, the Greek player will expect her return to be a major difference maker on this surface, while the mental edge is also with Sakkari.
In their two previous matches, Maria Sakkari has not been bothered by being the lower Ranked player and has won all four sets they have played. Both of those matches were played on the hard courts and I think the clay gives Maria Sakkari even more of an edge, so I am expecting her to find the tennis to move through.
Maria Sakkari has dominated the second serve numbers in their two matches against one another and I think she can drag Madison Keys into some longer rallies to further the edge in her own direction. It is never easy to beat Keys, but Maria Sakkari should be able to serve well enough to keep her at arm's length in this First Round match.
MY PICKS: Emma Raducanu - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Maria Sakkari - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Bianca Andreescu - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Kaia Kanepi - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Sebastian Baez - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Oscar Otte - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 4-2, + 2.76 Units (12 Units Staked, + 23% Yield)
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