I might have had a tough day in the office as far as the Tennis Picks are concerned, but I was largely happy with the selections and felt I deserved slightly better.
One player has moved onto my 'blacklist' and will not be selected over the next couple of weeks as I take a watching brief on their matches, but it was a frustrating day in the main with only Marton Fucsovics returning as a winner.
Wednesday is another extremely busy day of Tennis with the four tournaments getting into the meat of the events being played and it is hopefully a day in which the Picks can be much more productive.
Pablo Carreno Busta - 4.5 games v Barnabe Zapata Miralles: These two players met here in Barcelona last year and it will be interesting to see how much Barnabe Zapata Miralles learned from the experience.
He was pretty well beaten by the experienced Pablo Carreno Busta and the higher Ranked player did reach the Quarter Final in Monte Carlo last week. I do have to admit that the numbers have largely been a little disappointing compared to what you may expect from Pablo Carreno Busta, but he is a battle hardened player and that means he has found a way to win close matches.
Much will depend on how effective the Pablo Carreno Busta serve will be and over the last twelve months it has been an inconsistent weapon on the clay courts. He will definitely feel there is an improvement to be made from his Monte Carlo performance, but this is a good chance to get into the tournament in Barcelona.
Being a higher Ranked and older player than his compatriot is something that has made an impact in matches throughout the history of the Tennis Tour and I think that may have been part of the reason that Barnabe Zapata Miralles was beaten pretty handily last season. The one previous match should mean Zapata Miralles is a bit more comfortable facing up to Pablo Carreno Busta, but he has had a mixed time on the clay courts in 2022.
Barnabe Zapata Miralles has come through the Qualifiers and his three wins in Barcelona have been very impressive, but he has struggled with his serve on the clay courts this season. That makes him vulnerable to Pablo Carreno Busta, although I do think the younger Spaniard will be able to have success with his own return.
That has been the strongest part of his game, but it may be under pressure if Barnabe Zapata Miralles is not able to produce strong serving on the day. It was the difference last season with Zapata Miralles struggling to hold onto his serve when they met here in Barcelona and I do think Pablo Carreno Busta can produce a similar kind of victory on Wednesday in this Second Round meeting.
I would like to see Pablo Carreno Busta just knuckle down quicker than he did in his matches in Monte Carlo last week, but he has enjoyed playing in Barcelona and I think he can win through to the next Round.
Alex De Minaur - 3.5 games v Ugo Humbert: You cannot ignore the fact that Alex De Minaur has not been at his most comfortable on the clay courts and so it is very difficult to back him as a favourite in any match on this surface.
That is the case even when facing someone like Ugo Humbert who has been struggling with his confidence in 2022- however, the Frenchman has won a match in Barcelona and should be plenty ready to deal with the conditions he is facing.
Ugo Humbert is another player who has been at odds with playing on the clay courts and I think that, coupled with his lack of confidence, will make him vulnerable to someone as solid as Alex De Minaur can be. This might not be his best surface, but De Minaur has been able to get a little bit more out of his serve compared with Ugo Humbert and the Australian also looks to have a real edge when it comes to the returning numbers on the surface.
Their two previous matches have both been played on the hard courts and have seen the two players split those one apiece, but the clay courts may just strengthen the edge in favour of Alex De Minaur.
Any player who has struggled on a surface as much as Alex De Minaur has done can be difficult to trust to cover such a spread as the one he is being asked to cover on Wednesday, but I do think he played well enough in Monte Carlo. Playing a first match in this ATP Barcelona event also means Alex De Minaur may need a bit of time to just get himself ready to compete, but I do think his numbers over the last twelve months suggest he is the stronger player on the clay courts and able to work his way to an edge.
In their two hard court matches, the Australian has had a slight edge too and I think he can earn enough break points to be in a position to cover this mark.
MY PICKS: Pablo Carreno Busta - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Alex De Minaur - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Emma Raducanu - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Anett Kontaveit - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Tamara Zidansek - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 2-4, - 4 Units (12 Units Staked, - 33.33% Yield)
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