The NBA regular season has come to a close and that means we know the identity of the twenty teams that will make up the PlayOffs and the Play In Tournament.
Four of those teams are only going to be experiencing the Play In Tournament this week, but this is the time of the season when the big stars tend to show off all of their talent.
Some will be missing- LeBron James, Anthony Davis and the Los Angeles Lakers failed to make the top ten in the Western Conference and have a big off-season ahead, while my New York Knicks returned to type after a strong 2020/21 season.
But that doesn't mean the next two months are not going to be filled with some top quality Basketball. There is every chance we are going to get some big time First Round Series and I am looking forward to seeing how the PlayOffs shake up.
If I was asked to pick a potential NBA Final now I think my lean would be with the Phoenix Suns returning to the Finals to represent the Western Conference. The Eastern Conference looks wide open, but the Brooklyn Nets may just be coming together at the right time, although they will have to negotiate the Play In Tournament as well as the Boston Celtics or Miami Heat in the First Round.
The Nets may actually benefit by losing on Tuesday and then earning their way into the PlayOffs as the Number 8 Seed rather than the Number 7, but teams won't be thinking about that now and it is all about making sure you win each time you step on the court.
I will have all of the NBA Play In Tournament Picks in this thread and will then open a new thread for Games 1 through 4 of the First Round of the PlayOffs, which begins on Saturday.
Getting the PlayOffs off to a good start is the key this week before the First Round begins and there are some good games to get the post-season kicked off.
Tuesday 12th April
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Brooklyn Nets Pick: These teams both finished with the same record in the regular season, but a win for the Brooklyn Nets earlier this month was enough to win the tiebreaker over the Cleveland Cavaliers. That meant finishing the season in the Number 7 spot in the Eastern Conference and earning the right to host this opening Play In Tournament game.
With two shots to reach the PlayOffs, the Brooklyn Nets will feel they are in a strong position to make the First Round of the post-season. It has not been the season they would have wanted, but the Nets know the PlayOffs is almost a reset on the year they've had so far and the likes of Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving have previously played on NBA Championship teams to give Brooklyn plenty of experience to call upon.
A disappointing end to the regular season should not cloud how well the Cleveland Cavaliers have done to return this kind of level. It should be said that a few weeks ago they looked sure things to finish in the top six in the Eastern Conference, but an injury to Jarrett Allen seemed to spark a downturn in form and now the Cavaliers have to find a way to win one of a potential two games this week to earn their First Round Series.
Jarrett Allen has missed the end of the regular season, but he was practicing on Sunday before the final game and there is a feeling that he is trending towards being back in the rotation. However, the question for the Cavaliers is whether they want to bring Jarrett Allen back for this game or whether they should give him a few more days rest for a potential 'win or go home' game.
The Cavaliers are a pretty big underdog so it would make some sense, but this is also a team who have looked very vulnerable Defensively ever since Jarrett Allen went down. Having him back in the rotation may give them an opportunity to try and slow down the high-powered Brooklyn Offense which helped the team rally in the Fourth Quarter to beat the Cleveland Cavaliers by 11 points last week.
On the Offensive side of the court, the Cavaliers will feel they can at least push the Brooklyn Nets, but I have a lean that the latter having the best two players on the court can use that experience to pull clear of their visitors. The Nets will be facing a team that have struggled to stop the three ball and Brooklyn also look like they have an edge when it comes to the rebounding numbers.
I do think that will help the Brooklyn Nets pull clear of the Cleveland Cavaliers and both home wins over them in the regular season have come by at least ten points.
Over the course of the season the Nets have been over-rated by the layers and that has seen them struggle to cover big spreads, but they did manage to cover this same line in the last regular season game between these two teams last week.
Some of the betting trends are really going against the Brooklyn Nets, but they are facing a Cleveland Cavaliers team that is just 1-5 against the spread in their last six as the road underdog.
Like many of the home fans, I do think the likes of Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving were signed by Brooklyn to win these kind of games and I expect their scoring to help the team pull clear. The season may not have been the one that was expected, but Brooklyn can change that narrative very quickly and one of the most dangerous Play In teams could earn the Number 7 Seed in the Eastern Conference on Tuesday with a strong win.
Los Angeles Clippers @ Minnesota Timberwolves Pick: For a number of weeks the Los Angeles Clippers have been locked into the Number 8 Seed in the Western Conference and that does mean having two chances to make the First Round of the PlayOffs. While their City rivals have unexpectedly failed to even finish in the top ten of the Western Conference, the Clippers have to be given credit to have finished as high as they have considering they have been without Kawhi Leonard for the entirety of the season and Paul George for a large majority.
Paul George has returned to the rotation and he has been playing at a really good level, while the Clippers have ended the season with six wins from their last seven games to build some momentum.
This game to decide the Number 7 Seed in the Western Conference is going to be hosted by the Minnesota Timberwolves who just fell short of the top six by 2 games in the regular season. A couple of months ago it looked like the high-powered Offensive Minnesota team were going to be able to push into those positions, but they have lost four of their last seven games and will have to dig in to make sure they secure their place in the First Round.
Winning this game would also mean facing the Memphis Grizzlies rather than having to play another game for the right to meet the Phoenix Suns in the First Round in a loaded Western Conference.
Even through their inconsistent finish to the season, the Timberwolves have continued to be very productive on the Offensive side of the court. Karl-Anthony Towns was rested in their last regular season game and the Timberwolves will be hoping D'Angelo Russell is also able to overcome Covid and take his place in the line up. The Timberwolves will need Russell to round out the scoring power of the rotation, especially as they will be facing a Los Angeles Clippers Defensive scheme that has powered them into the Play In Tournament.
They have perhaps benefited from the schedule down the stretch, but the Clippers could only beat what was in front of them and they have to be given credit for that. The Defensive strength is coupled with an ability to win the battle on the boards and I think that could be enough for the Clippers to keep this one close.
Los Angeles will also benefit from the fact that the Minnesota Timberwolves have allowed teams to average over 53% from the field in their last five games and the return of Paul George has helped spark the Clippers Offense. They have been particularly effective from the three point range and it could be the key for the underdog as they look to become the first Number 8 Seed to beat the Number 7 Seed in the second season of the Play In Tournament.
Norman Powell is another who helps a pretty good rotation that has been successful even when the likes of Paul George were sitting on the sidelines. That could be very important for the Los Angeles Clippers as they look to avoid having to play again this week before the First Round Series begin in the PlayOffs and I do think the underdog may have enough to win this game outright.
Both teams have struggled in their recent roles as the road underdog/home favourite, but the Clippers rounded out the regular season in strong form rather than the inconsistency that the Minnesota Timberwolves displayed and Los Angeles could make the points being given to them count.
Wednesday 13th April
That was a pretty ridiculous start to the Play In Tournament Picks.
Brooklyn led by 22 points in the Third Quarter and the Clippers led by 10 points in the Fourth Quarter with their hosts in deep foul trouble.
Quite shockingly, both teams failed to cover by a combined four points- that is pretty sickening.
Things hopefully won't be as ridiculous for a second night in a row. You are never going to get every Pick right, but I am looking for teams to not move into massively strong positions where they are covering by 13 plus points, as both were last night in the second half, and then blow it late.
Charlotte Hornets @ Atlanta Hawks Pick: The winning team will be heading to the Cleveland Cavaliers later this week to try and earn the Number 8 Seed in the Eastern Conference, but there is plenty of pressure on both the Atlanta Hawks and Charlotte Hornets. Both have looked like they were set for a Play In Tournament appearance for some time, but they will feel they put in plenty in the last couple of weeks of the regular season to have deserved a higher Seeding and two shots to make the PlayOffs.
Nothing will change that now and there is plenty of pressure that is going to be felt by both of these teams heading into this 'win or go home' game.
The Atlanta Hawks may be dealing with a bit more pressure than the Charlotte Hornets- they reached the Eastern Conference Finals last season so missing out completely on the First Round of the PlayOffs would be a huge underachievement. On the other hand, Charlotte are a team that are building for the future, but who have taken huge steps this season to finish with a winning record and a team that ended the regular season feeling pretty good about their chances of upsetting their way into the First Round of the post-season.
They finished with the same record as the Hawks, while three wins in a row will give the Hornets plenty of confidence.
Charlotte have a team that have shown plenty of firepower on the Offensive side of the board and even the absence of Gordon Hayward for large stretches of the season have not slowed them down. Gordon Hayward will be missing for the Play In Tournament, but the Hornets have averaged 53% from the field in their last five games and they can challenge an Atlanta Defensive scheme that has been a touch inconsistent.
However, the Hawks have Trae Young and they have been scoring pretty well themselves. They also have to be encouraged by the fact that the Hornets have been as porous Defensively as they have been productive on the Offensive side of the court and that is where Atlanta can make enough plays to get on top of this big game.
A couple of factors suggest the Hawks will be too strong in this important game.
The PlayOff experience cannot be discounted at this stage of the season, while second chance points could also be an area the Hawks can beat out the Hornets with their size and intensity around the boards. And you absolutely have to factor in home court where Atlanta have been much stronger this season compared with their performances on the road.
These teams split their four regular season games and they each won once on the court as the visiting team. I have little doubt this is going to be another intense battle with the Hornets and Hawks capable of getting very hot from the field and able to take the game away from an opponent, but the stronger Atlanta Defensive performances in recent games could see them win this Play In game.
I have a huge amount of respect for what Charlotte have done to get into the position they are in, but they are facing an Atlanta team that have been performing well as the favourite.
Atlanta also won eight of their last ten games to end the regular season with the sole losses on the road at Toronto and Miami, two teams already into the First Round of the PlayOffs. The Hawks won their last four home games and all by at least 7 points and I think the experience of last season will see one big Fourth Quarter effort and a place in the final Play In Tournament game in the Eastern Conference.
San Antonio Spurs @ New Orleans Pelicans Pick: Three losses in a row have slowed any momentum the Number 10 Seeded San Antonio Spurs may feel they had going into the Play In Tournament, and all of those were suffered against teams that finished above them in the standings. On Wednesday they have to face another one of those when they go up against the New Orleans Pelicans who have also lost two in a row ahead of this vital must win game.
A trip to Los Angeles will await the winner and it is the San Antonio Spurs who won the regular season between these two teams, including winning both games played in New Orleans.
That has to give the Spurs a mental edge ahead of this Play In game, but the post-season pressures are very different and neither one of these teams is blessed with a lot of experience. And while the New Orleans Pelicans will know they were beaten in both home games against the Spurs, there is no doubt how important the home fans can be in these pressurised environments and it is no surprise the road teams have struggled in the early runnings of the Play In Tournament.
It is something that is a concern, but I do think the San Antonio Spurs can make the points count in this one.
Brandon Ingram also looks set to return for the New Orleans Pelicans and I do think his availability is very important for the home team. They closed the season with some inconsistent form on the Offensive side of the court, and now the Pelicans have to deal with the San Antonio Defensive unit that have played with plenty of intensity despite a difficult run in to close the regular season.
The Spurs are lacking star power these days, but they have been shooting the ball efficiently and I think that is going to be important for them in this one. I do think the Spurs will have considerable success against the New Orleans Defense which has allowed teams to average 53% from the field in their last five games and that is where the Spurs should be able to keep this one close.
San Antonio have covered in their last seven as the underdog overall and they have also covered in their last six as the road underdog. Gregg Popovich has had a bit more time to prepare the team for this Play In Tournament and he has been a Head Coach who has made use of the additional time with the Spurs going 11-4 against the spread in their last fifteen when they have had two days rest between games.
You cannot ignore how well the New Orleans Pelicans have played as the home favourite in recent weeks, but I would be surprised if they are able to blow out the San Antonio Spurs and this looks enough points to back the underdog.
Friday 15th April
It has been a favourites Play In Tournament so far with those teams going 3-1 against the spread and all four higher Seeds winning their opening games.
That may be challenged when the two games for the Number 8 Seed in the Eastern and Western Conference are played on Friday. Once again we have relatively narrow favourites, although for the first time one of those will be playing on the road.
It is different to the PlayOffs and the best of seven game series that have to be played and there will be tension as teams face elimination on Friday. However, it does mean that all will be put on the line and players will be asked to dig as deep as possible in order to earn a First Round Series, although the winners of the two games could be vulnerable Game 1 teams.
Atlanta Hawks @ Cleveland Cavaliers Pick: At one point it looked like the Cleveland Cavaliers were not only looking to reach the First Round of the PlayOffs, but pushing for a top four finish in the Eastern Conference. They unfortunately slid down the standings over the last couple of months of the regular season and you can virtually pinpoint the moment of that slide coinciding with the injury suffered by Jarrett Allen.
There is no doubt that he has been a huge miss for the Cavaliers and the home fans will be hoping Jarrett Allen is able to suit up in this last Play In Tournament game. Even if he does, you have to wonder if there will be some rustiness on his part and that does not bode well against the Atlanta Hawks who blew out the Charlotte Hornets in their first Play In game and who finished the regular season with a lot more confidence.
Injuries have also hurt the Hawks and they are almost certainly going to without John Collins again, but Trae Young has found support from his role players and that has helped the Hawks down the stretch. They have beaten plenty of quality opponents and narrow losses to some of the best teams in the East won't have dented the belief of a team that reached the Eastern Conference Finals last season and who will look to make a real impact in the post-season as long as they can get into the First Round of the NBA PlayOffs.
Being at home should be an advantage for the Cleveland Cavaliers and that should make this a closer game than some anticipate, despite all of the momentum being against the Cavaliers.
The two teams have both been pretty confident with the way they have been shooting the ball and that also makes this a close game as far as I am concerned. In the NBA, any team that can hit the three pointers at the kind of clips that the Cleveland Cavaliers and Atlanta Hawks do are going to be dangerous if they get their eye in early.
A difference between the two is that in recent games the Hawks Defensive schemes have been a little more consistent and the feeling is that they are the team that can make the critical stops when they need to. Having Jarrett Allen back will help the Cavaliers, but they are also allowing teams to find open shooters beyond the arc and that is where I believe the experienced Atlanta Hawks can just do enough.
The return of Jarrett Allen will block up the paint and help the Cavaliers with their rebounding, but I do think his minutes may be limited as he rebuilds his fitness. It should mean the Hawks are able to take advantage when Allen is on the bench, my assumption being he will suit up for this game, and I think Atlanta's momentum over the last month will carry them into the PlayOffs.
Further momentum has to be taken from the fact that the Hawks won the last three regular season games between these teams- as poor as their road record has been, one of those was also here in Cleveland, while the 24 point win at the end of March won't be far from the mind of either set of players.
The Cavaliers do have an extra day to prepare for this game, while they have a strong record against the spread when being set as the home underdog. However, the Hawks are 4-1 against the spread in their last five as the road favourite, and they blew out the Hornets which means the players should be ready to compete even with the slightly shorter rest period.
I am never a fan of backing a public team like the Hawks are for this game, but I will lay the points with the team with momentum as they look to secure a First Round Series with the Number 1 Seeded Miami Heat.
New Orleans Pelicans @ Los Angeles Clippers Pick: The big question for the Los Angeles Clippers is how much they have emotionally suffered from blowing a big lead in the Fourth Quarter of their Play In Tournament defeat to the Minnesota Timberwolves. Some players will feel they should already be in the First Round of the PlayOffs, but the Clippers have to pick themselves up and go again as they host this 'win or go home' game on Friday.
The momentum will feel like it is with the New Orleans Pelicans who won their opening Play In Tournament game against the San Antonio Spurs, but that was at home and it is a much different challenge playing in this atmosphere on the road. So far the home teams have dominated the Play In Tournament, but there is plenty of pressure on the Clippers too.
A mental edge is the fact they have won three of the four regular season games against the Pelicans, especially as they blew them out at home earlier this month,
Paul George has to pick up his efficiency if the Clippers are to have a real chance of winning, but he is also well supported by a team that grew without him and Kawhi Leonard for much of the season. However, cold spells proved to be costly for the Clippers in their loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves and they cannot afford to do that against the New Orleans Pelicans.
A benefit for the Clippers is that they are facing a Pelicans team that have struggled Defensively and I do think Los Angeles will be able to have their success from the three point range as well as when they get into the paint.
It does put the pressure on the Pelicans to find an Offensive response of their own, but they are going to be confident after beating the San Antonio Spurs and seeing a strong effort from CJ McCollum. The player traded from the Portland Trail Blazers for moments like these was clearly inspired by his effort and believes something big will happen for the Pelicans, although even a win in this game means facing the Phoenix Suns in the First Round of the PlayOffs.
New Orleans have been pretty efficient shooting the ball, but they are facing a Clippers team who have based their run towards the post-season on being able to play strong Defense. The poor outing against the Timberwolves will hurt, but it was more to do with the Offense going cold than the Defensive schemes breaking down and I think the Los Angeles Clippers will be able to do enough to beat this opponent again.
The Pelicans have been a strong road underdog, but Los Angeles have been strong when facing a team with a losing record like the one New Orleans have. The Clippers are also 4-1 against the spread in their last five as the home favourite and I think home advantage can also help the team to bounce back from the loss earlier this week and make their way into the First Round of the PlayOffs.
MY PICKS: 12/04 Brooklyn Nets - 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
12/04 Los Angeles Clippers + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
13/04 Atlanta Hawks - 5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
13/04 San Antonio Spurs + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
15/04 Atlanta Hawks - 2 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
15/04 Los Angeles Clippers - 4 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Play In Update: 2-4, - 2.09 Units (6 Units Staked, - 34.83% Yield)
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