It really felt like a day when the Tennis Picks deserved a better return than they got, but things could have been worse on another day.
While I anticipated Wednesday to be a busy day, weather conditions and the strange way some of the tournaments are managing their schedules means Thursday is a busier day than expected. The Tennis Picks follow suit with a number of selections from the four tournaments being played this week and you can read my thoughts on a few of the matches below as well as the full Tennis Picks from another day on the clay.
In the Friday thread I will have a few thoughts about the decision made by Wimbledon and the LTA in banning players from Belarus and Russia from taking part in the grass court season in the UK.
Fabio Fognini - 3.5 games v Aljaz Bedene: No one can beat Aljaz Bedene eight times in a row!
After seven straight losses to Fabio Fognini, Aljaz Bedene beat the Italian for the first time when they met on the clay courts of Cordoba in 2019, but a lot has changed in the last three years. Both of these players are now veterans of the Tour, while Aljaz Bedene has only made his return to the Tour last month after missing the rest of 2021 from July with injuries piling up.
As you can imagine, Aljaz Bedene has not really performed as well as he would have liked while trying to rebuild his match fitness, but the victory over Mikhail Kukushkin in the First Round in Belgrade will help. For a long time, Aljaz Bedene has saved his best tennis for the clay courts and the next six weeks could be important for a player that has slipped down to Number 164 in the World Rankings, even if this match up is a tough one for him.
Fabio Fognini is clearly coming to the end of a long, successful career, but he can still be very effective on the clay courts and that will encourage him in the lead to the French Open. Last week he was well beaten by eventual Monte Carlo Champion Stefanos Tsitsipas, but Fabio Fognini may feel much more comfortable at the ATP 250 level on this surface and he has reached the Quarter Final in Buenos Aires and the Semi Final in Rio de Janeiro on the clay courts in 2022.
The numbers on the clay courts over the last twelve months have been largely average, but Fabio Fognini has been the superior return player of the two and I think that gives him an edge. He is also much more match hardened than Aljaz Bedene who has spent a number of months off the Tour and I expect that to also factor in favour of the Italian.
In their previous clay court matches that have largely been dominated by Fabio Fognini, the difference in the returning departments have been clear and I think that will be the outcome of this match in Belgrade too. I will be the first to admit that I rarely back Fabio Fognini because he can be an erratic player, but this is one of those moments where I think the veteran enigma can be looked at as a potential strong winner in the Second Round.
Aslan Karatsev - 1.5 games v Oscar Otte: 2021 was a special year for Aslan Karatsev, but 2022 has proven to be a much more difficult one through the first four months of the season. That may sound a little harsh considering Aslan Karatsev has won a title on the hard courts in January, but he has only reached one Quarter Final since Sydney and has suffered a number of disappointing early losses in recent weeks.
The World Ranking has slipped back to Number 30 and Aslan Karatsev has plenty of points to defend in Belgrade having reached the Final in 2021. That does increase the pressure on someone who has not really performed as well as he would like and who may be suffering with confidence issues, but Aslan Karatsev has to feel this is a winnable match.
The Second Round brings a match up against Oscar Otte who has reached a career high of World Number 67 earlier this month. You have to respect someone who is clearly raising his level of performance, but Oscar Otte has yet to take his game up from the Challenger level to the main ATP Tour with any real consistency and the same can be said for his clay court performances.
Oscar Otte was a strong winner in the First Round, but he was beaten twice in Monte Carlo having been given a reprieve for a Qualifier defeat to lose again as the 'Lucky Loser' in the First Round. Last year he did have some solid runs on this surface at the Challenger level, but Oscar Otte is just 2-2 against top 100 Ranked opponents on this surface over the last twelve months.
In those four matches, Oscar Otte has really struggled with his serve and held just 66% of service games played and I do think Aslan Karatsev can put him under some pressure in this one.
However, you do have to question whether Aslan Karatsev has the confidence to take advantage when the chances come his way, while the Russian has a serve which can be a little erratic. He has largely backed that up on the clay courts with success, but Aslan Karatsev has only broken in 19% of return games played on this surface over the last twelve months and I do think the confidence levels are a major concern.
At least Aslan Karatsev can use the fact he has beaten Oscar Otte twice before, once on the clay, to fuel his confidence in this one. With the strong run produced in Belgrade last year, you have to feel Karatsev will be happier in the surroundings and it can lead to a win over Oscar Otte here.
In their two previous matches, the Aslan Karatsev serve has been the more reliable of the two and I think he can use some heavy serving to move into another Quarter Final in Belgrade.
Holger Rune - 3.5 games v Taro Daniel: Any player that has come through the Qualifiers and won three matches in a tournament has to be respected and there has to be a confidence in the Taro Daniel tennis that makes him dangerous. The last twelve months have been pretty solid for Taro Daniel who is edging back towards the top 100 of the World Rankings, but he has not always been at his best on the clay courts.
The come from behind win over Dusan Lajovic in the First Round will be a boost for Taro Daniel, although it was a tough match that would have taken something out of his legs. He needed almost a full three hours to win that First Round match and so the day off on Wednesday will have been welcomed, but Taro Daniel will need to be a little better all around if he is going to win this Second Round match too.
Over the last twelve months, Taro Daniel has produced some solid clay court numbers, although it should be pointed out the majority of those matches have been played against players Ranked outside the top 100. When you only look at his matches against the better players on the Tour, Taro Daniel has held 71% of service games played and broken in 23% of return games, numbers which dip significantly from his overall clay court performances in the last twelve months.
Now he has to face Holger Rune, an improving young player who has been very comfortable when playing on the clay courts. A narrow loss to Casper Ruud in Monte Carlo will only have boosted the confidence of Holger Rune who crushed Cristian Garin in the First Round for the loss of just four games.
The Danish player has served pretty well on the clay courts, but it is the return of serve where he has been most dangerous and I expect that to make the difference for him on Thursday.
In 2022, Holger Rune has broken in 37% of return games played on the surface and I do think he can impose his will on Taro Daniel. That was the case when he played Taro Daniel on the clay in 2021 and Holger Rune won that match in pretty routine fashion after holding in 81% of service games played compared with Taro Daniel's 60% mark.
Taro Daniel will take confidence from the fact he created more break points in that match Szczecin, but he won 57% of service points played compared with Holger Rune's 65% mark and I think the younger player will be fresher for the match too. Holger Rune looks to be the superior clay courter and I think he will be good enough to beat Taro Daniel by a good margin on his way through to the Quarter Final in Belgrade.
MY PICKS: Fabio Fognini - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Aslan Karatsev - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Holger Rune - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Thiago Monteiro + 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Cameron Norrie - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Pablo Carreno Busta - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Casper Ruud - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Carlos Alcaraz - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 5-7, - 4.54 Units (24 Units Staked, - 18.92% Yield)
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