None of the players have a lot of time to prepare for their next matches with the Semi Final at the Monte Carlo Masters to be played on Saturday and you can read my selections below.
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - 1.5 games v Grigor Dimitrov: Three sets were needed by all four players that won their Quarter Final matches at the Monte Carlo Masters, but Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Grigor Dimitrov spent a similar amount of time on the court.
The two players have had strong events and I expect they will privately be very confident in reaching the Final of the first Masters to be played on the clay courts in 2022. Both have beaten two top 14 Ranked opponents in their run through to the Semi Final and that is going to give Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Grigor Dimitrov plenty of confidence when they step onto the court.
Overall it has been a stronger week for the Spaniard, but Grigor Dimitrov has been in fine form on the red dirt and his run has perhaps been more unexpected of the two players. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has not really threatened to perform to this level on the clay courts in Masters events, but he had a strong run at the French Open and the returning performances have been impressive to spark this successful tournament.
It is a tough task in front of him in this one though considering how well Grigor Dimitrov has been serving throughout the tournament. The Bulgarian is holding 95% of his service games and his last three matches, which have been completed on the court, have seen Grigor Dimitrov allow a maximum of four break point opportunities in each match.
Much is going to depend on whether Davidovich Fokina can get into the returning games as well as he has throughout the Monte Carlo Masters. It will be a real test for the Spaniard, but his level this week coupled with his overall twelve month numbers suggest his level may be a little more sustainable than the Dimitrov serving numbers on this surface.
In saying that, you have to respect how well Dimitrov has been serving and he is has backed up his game with some solid returning efforts too. It makes him a dangerous player, one who can be very tough to beat when his confidence is in the place it is likely to be in right now, but Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is playing really well too and I do think he has the superior return which ends up proving to be the difference on the day.
When these two met in Rome last year, both have solid serving numbers, but it was Alejandro Davidovich Fokina managed to protect his serve with the slightly stronger percentage of points won behind that shot. He did have to fend off more break points than Grigor Dimitrov that day, and I think this is likely to be a close match with very little between them too.
The feeling is that Grigor Dimitrov may not have the same kind of success on the return as Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and I do think that the latter will find a way to edge to another victory over this opponent. It will likely be a tight, competitive match, but the superior returning of the Spaniard may seal the deal in the tough moments as long as he is not as wasteful as he was in the big points in this Quarter Final win.
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 1.5 games v Alexander Zverev: It can be very difficult to recover from the tough, emotional victories that underline the progress through to the Semi Final, but both Alexander Zverev and Stefanos Tsitsipas are in a similar boat.
Alexander Zverev won his match against Jannik Sinner in over three hours and was pushed very hard in the final set when it looked like he might have broken the back of the match, Winning a tie-breaker to secure his place in the Semi Final means plenty of emotional and physical efforts were used on Friday and it will be far from easy for Alexander Zverev to prepare for this Semi Final match.
However, he played in the match prior to Stefanos Tsitsipas who also needed close to three hours to win his Quarter Final. The Greek player was the first to admit that he should have won in straight sets when being broken at 5-3 ahead of Diego Sebastian Schwartzman, but Stefanos Tsitsipas also showed off his character to roll through six games in a row in the final set decider having fallen 0-4 behind.
Both players will have a difficult time preparing for this Semi Final having put in as much as they did to earn a spot in the final four. The lack of time makes it more difficult, but Stefanos Tsitsipas and Alexander Zverev are very familiar with one another, while the former is also the defending Champion in Monte Carlo and arguably the favourite to win the tournament again.
The performances in the tournament so far shows there is not much between them- Stefanos Tsitsipas has been the superior server, but Alexander Zverev has been slightly stronger when it comes to the returning numbers. It certainly makes for another potentially very tight match and I think it will come down to the small margins.
Stefanos Tsitsipas does have the edge with the head to head lead and he has won six of the nine matches between these players overall. Both previous clay court matches have been won by the Greek player too and those two wins have seen Stefanos Tsitsipas hold 89% of his service games played compared with Alexander Zverev's mark of 79% mark.
You do have to respect how well Alexander Zverev has been returning this week as he looks to put a more significant dent into the Tsitsipas service games, but I do think he has shown some vulnerability on his own serve.
A late finish in Monte Carlo is far from ideal for Stefanos Tsitsipas, but Alexander Zverev had an incredibly tough Quarter Final too and I do think the defending Champion may be able to manage himself well enough to win this match. The margins have been tight in the two previous wins Stefanos Tsitsipas has had over Alexander Zverev on the clay, but he has had a strong enough edge to believe he can back that up here.
Two quality players should produce a quality match, but I am looking for Stefanos Tsitsipas to do enough to win the Semi Final.
MY PICKS: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Monte Carlo Update: 11-12, - 3.80 Units (46 Units Staked, - 8.26% Yield)
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