The sole Tennis Pick on Monday returned an early morning winner and I can't ask for much more than that.
There are some big tournaments being played this week on both the ATP and WTA Tours, but the focus for the Tennis Picks on Tuesday are the two ATP events in Barcelona and Belgrade. I have three selections from Barcelona and two from Belgrade which can be seen below.
While I don't have any Picks from the WTA Stuttgart tournament, I will be hoping to tune in at some point when Bianca Andreescu makes her return to the Tour. Injuries have stalled a promising career, but I am hoping that the Canadian is over those and can push back towards the top of the World Rankings where she belongs.
After a long layoff, Bianca Andreescu makes her season debut on Tuesday and I can only wish her the best of luck.
Roberto Carballas Baena - 1.5 games v Lloyd Harris: He may be Ranked over fifty places behind his opponent, but you can understand why Roberto Carballas Baena has been set as the favourite in this First Round match against Lloyd Harris. While the Spaniard has long been at his most comfortable on the natural surface of the clay courts, Lloyd Harris has struggled to have an impact on the red dirt and the next six weeks is a difficult time for the big serving South African.
You cannot completely disregard the Roberto Carballas Baena World Ranking, but I do think he is the right favourite in this First Round match in Barcelona.
He reached the Semi Final of a Challenger event on the clay in Madrid last week and Roberto Carballas Baena has won matches at the main ATP level too. The Spaniard has suffered a couple of heavy losses to the likes of Casper Ruud and Lorenzo Sonego, but those two players are pretty comfortable on the clay courts too and the overall numbers produced by Roberto Carballas Baena are decent enough.
They are certainly going to be good enough to give him a big chance to beat Lloyd Harris who has long struggled on the slower surface as he has not been given as many free points as he would expect to receive on the hard and grass courts. Lloyd Harris was pretty handily beaten in Monte Carlo in the sole match played there and even in 2021 he only held serve in 71% of service games played, which leaves him vulnerable on this surface against a clay court specialist.
It also has to be noted that Lloyd Harris has not been as comfortable as he would have liked when it comes to returning on the clay courts- while he will get into rallies, the slower surface tests the consistency of the groundstrokes and that is where Roberto Carballas Baena looks to have a real advantage over Lloyd Harris in this First Round match.
Roberto Carballas Baena has an attackable serve, but Lloyd Harris has not really shown the consistency to be able to exploit that. Instead, it feels like the Carballas Baena return could make the difference on the day and I will look for the Spaniard to earn a good win in this First Round match in Barcelona.
Marton Fucsovics - 4.5 games v Jordan Thompson: Playing on the clay courts in Houston is one thing, but the European clay courts are a big test for players like Jordan Thompson who want to spend the majority of their time on faster surfaces. This is a surface in which patience and consistency can be rewarded, while movement is very different for players compared with the hard courts and grass courts they will be playing on for much of the season.
The Australian was beaten in his first match in Houston and in recent years he has not had a lot of experience of playing on the red dirt. Last season he finished with a 2-4 record on the clay courts, although Jordan Thompson did win a match here in Barcelona and will be hoping that experience can be replicated.
A big problem for Jordan Thompson over the last couple of years on the clay courts has been the serve and he has just struggled to get out of those tough spots that a big serve can manage to do when playing on the hard courts. It is perhaps no surprise it has led to Jordan Thompson holding just 68% of service games played on the clay over the last twelve months compared with his 77% mark on the hard courts.
The pressure has then been ramped up on the return and it has proved to be a tough spot for Jordan Thompson to deal with as he has broken in just 18% of return games on a surface on which the return should be easier to deal with.
Marton Fucsovics will be hoping to take advantage after a relatively disappointing Monte Carlo Masters showing- he has dropped out of the top 50 in the World Rankings and may have seen his best tennis pass him by, but he remains a solid, if unspectacular clay courter.
Over the last twelve months, Marton Fucsovics has found his own serve being much more vulnerable on the clay courts, but he does hold 70% of service games played. That number is not much better than Jordan Thompson's mark, but a difference for the Hungarian is that he has broken in 32% of return games and I do think he will be the superior player whenever we get into rallies.
I expect that to make the difference on the day and the return of serve should favour Marton Fucsovics to move into a position to cover what is a big handicap mark. As long as he serves even semi competently, I expect Marton Fucsovics to record a solid win in Barcelona on his way to the Second Round of this tournament.
Pablo Andujar - 2.5 games v Ugo Humbert: The main problem some of the clay court specialists have is that they have serves that can be vulnerable and it is something that the top players on the Tour will exploit.
Take Pablo Andujar as an example- he has a winning record on the clay courts over the last twelve months, but his numbers are hurt by the fact he only holds 68% of service games played. The wins have largely come about thanks to the 33% of games in which he has broken serve, but it makes players like Andujar hard to trust when it comes to covering any spread.
However, he is the favourite against Ugo Humbert in the First Round in Barcelona and deservedly so when you think of the season long struggle the Frenchman has had on the Tour. The confidence is clearly dented as shown by his manner of defeat to Pedro Martinez in the Monte Carlo Masters, but Ugo Humbert had more successes breaking the serve than looking after his own and that makes him potentially awkward for Pablo Andujar to deal with.
The difference between the players does look to be the return.
Over the last twelve months Ugo Humbert has struggled for wins on all surfaces, but especially on the clay courts where he too has only managed to hold serve in 68% of service games played on the surface. Unlike Pablo Andujar, Ugo Humbert has not been able to break serve as consistently with a 20% mark there and I think the favourite is going to earn a measure of revenge for losing to the Frenchman at the Olympic Games last year.
That was a match played on the hard courts and I do think the shift onto the clay courts favours Pablo Andujar.
He hasn't played for a couple of weeks, but playing on the clay will feel natural for Pablo Andujar and I think he will find a way to force the breaks against a player lacking confidence. Ugo Humbert will have some break chances of his own, but Andujar should have the majority of break points on the day and I think he will work towards a good looking win.
MY PICKS: Roberto Carballas Baena - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Marton Fucsovics - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Pablo Andujar - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Joao Sousa + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
David Goffin - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 1-0, + 1.80 Units (2 Units Stake, + 90% Yield)
Season 2022: - 16.46 Units (494 Units Staked, - 3.33% Yield)
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