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Saturday, 30 April 2022

Boxing Picks 2022- Oscar Valdez vs Shakur Stevenson (April 30th)

The big night at Wembley Stadium ended in the manner most expected, but I was a little gutted that it did not last about twenty more seconds to get us into the second half of the fight.

Tyson Fury was in complete control and the stoppage was a good one from the referee with Dillian Whyte all but out, and the WBC Heavyweight Champion has underlined his place as the best big man in Boxing.

Talk about retirement is not one I am willing to entertain too long- right now I do think Tyson Fury feels he is done, but the winner of the Oleksandr Usyk-Anthony Joshua rematch will surely get the juices flowing again.

In saying that, I next expect to see Tyson Fury at the WWE PPV event being put together for Cardiff in September and it perhaps will be the start of any promotion towards Unifying the Heavyweight Championship for the first time in a generation.


The big fights keep rolling around and this weekend is no different even if it is caught between the Tyson Fury and Canelo Alvarez events- there are two big fights on the same night, but thankfully the promoters have banged their heads together to make sure the main events are not heading to the ring at the same time.

I don't really want to get into the 'which fight is bigger' debate that the promoters seemed to have gotten involved in for the two cards headlining Saturday 30th April, but instead hope that everyone enjoys the events being put on.



Katie Taylor vs Amanda Serrano

There are a couple of very big fights being put together in Women's Boxing this year and this is the first of those as two headline the magical Madison Square Garden for the first time.

Katie Taylor and Amanda Serrano are amongst the very top names in Women's Boxing and this is a fight that is two years in the making.

I have not doubt to the scale of the event, but I still think there are a couple of factors at play that would only improve the appreciation of the Women's side of the sport that have to be considered in the years ahead.

Firstly the Championship Bouts have to be fought over Twelve Rounds like the Men- in the world of MMA, the two codes are both fought under the same conditions and it will only improve the spectacle and the drama.

Adding to that, I do think Women's Boxing promoters have to push for the three minute Rounds- at the moment the Championship Bouts are essentially losing sixteen minutes to the Men and that takes away so much of what makes the sport appealing. Fans want to see Knock Outs, but under current stipulations it is very hard to do that for anyone not named Savannah Marshall and I do think it is a completely different challenge to prepare for the full thirty-six minute Championship bouts compared to the twenty minutes that the Women are asked to do.

In saying that, I am not at all surprised that Katie Taylor has pushed back against those suggestions.

At 35 years old, Katie Taylor is clearly in the backend of her career and I wouldn't be surprised if Amanda Serrano is the last opponent she ever faces (a rematch is a possibility of course). In recent fights, Taylor has looked shattered by the midway mark of some of her bouts and clearly slowed down at that point, so I am not at all surprised that she would not want the full three minute Rounds and the Twelve Round Championship distance to be put in front of her.

Someone like Amanda Serrano would have benefited from the extra time to try and break down Katie Taylor, but over the shorter distance there are more questions.

If this was over the same time limit as Men's Boxing, I would favour Amanda Serrano to find the stoppage around the Ninth or Tenth Round, but the shorter time does not offer much support to those looking to Knock Out opponents. I do think she will still land some big shots on Katie Taylor who can be dragged into a fight and who lost, in my opinion, when she fought Delfine Persoon in her last fight in The Garden.

My expectation in this one is that Katie Taylor will start fast, let her hands go in the combinations and try and get out of the way. I would be surprised if she is not winning after Five Rounds are completed.

However, I think Amanda Serrano will be able to land enough big shots to slow down the Irishwoman and do think she will be getting the better of the big exchanges in the second half. Katie Taylor has shown one or two signs that she is ready to go in some of her recent fights and Amanda Serrano is arguably the hardest puncher she has ever faced so there could be some rough moments to ride out.

Amanda Serrano is also a pretty good technical boxer so I expect her to be in a position to hurt Taylor and it may all come down to whether she has the time to put a finishing touch on this one before we get to the cards.

IF we get to the cards, who is ruling out a Split Decision which opens the door for the rematch? I think with Katie Taylor likely to make the faster start and Amanda Serrano coming down the stretch, it will be a close fight on the cards and you couldn't even rule out the Draw being an outcome.

Katie Taylor beat Delfine Persoon by Majority Decision here, but that was also almost three years ago and she has definitely lost a step or two since then.

I don't have a massive lean in this one, but I am sure the promoters would love to see this one happening again.

My lean is that either Amanda Serrano will find a stoppage late, which will be disputed by Katie Taylor's team, or this is going to be a close fight that could see either win by a Split Decision. That will give them a chance to do it all over again in the fall before Katie Taylor calls time on her career and a small interest in those two angles is the play.


The card at Madison Square Garden is a pretty good one this week and there are a couple of bouts that should have a chance of stealing the show.

First up is the fight between Liam Smith and Jessie Vargas, which has been touted for some time.

Both of these boxers have been in with some of the biggest names out there, but both have come up short when moving into elite level. Liam Smith is the more natural at the Light-Middleweight limit and I think that will make a difference for him, while another factor is the recent inactivity of Vargas.

Jessie Vargas has also spoken of his desire to move into politics and that has to be a concern for his fans about how much he really wants to prolong his boxing career. With Liam Smith there is no doubt after a strong win over rival Anthony Fowler and the naturally bigger man may feel he has enough to hurt Jessie Vargas down the stretch and find a stoppage in the Championship Rounds.

You have to respect the fact that Jessie Vargas has never been stopped before- however, he has been down in half of his last six fights in lower weight Divisions and Liam Smith is perhaps an underrated puncher having won seventeen of his thirty victories inside the distance.

The over two year layoff will also test Jessie Vargas down the stretch and I think Liam Smith will power through him late to just offer himself one more big opportunity in the very tough 154 pound Division.

Another couple of undercard bouts that will be of interest involve Galal Yafai and Austin Williams.

I expect Yafai to get his professional career off to a 2-0 start and he can produce another early finish.

Austin Williams is fighting an unbeaten opponent who has had seven more fights than he has, but I expect him to get the better of a fellow southpaw. Chordale Booker has a solid record that has to be respected too, but he has not faced someone of the quality of Williams and I think he can get this one done inside the distance.



Oscar Valdez vs Shakur Stevenson

The consensus top two in the 130 pound Division meet in a Unification bout on Saturday and this is a top contest between unbeaten Oscar Valdez and unbeaten Shakur Stevenson.

Both have enjoyed some big wins over the last eighteen months to move into this Unification, although the feeling is that Shakur Stevenson will be moving up to 135 following this one. He did need to strip down to make the limit in the weigh in, but Shakur Stevenson feels like the bigger fighter and one who could become a major star in the American market in the years ahead.

The win over Jamal Herring and the manner of it was very impressive, but Shakur Stevenson will know he has to be even better to beat someone like Oscar Valdez.

The latter will likely want to drag Stevenson into a real fight, but I think the game plan for the favourite will be to weather the early storm and showcase his superior boxing talents. Popping Oscar Valdez and making him reset could be the key early, but Shakur Stevenson may begin to set his feet the longer this goes as he looks to make another statement with a stoppage.

Much depends on the approach of Oscar Valdez- some boxers will feel that going the distance is enough when they feel a fight is lost, but my feeling is that Valdez will push forward throughout and that may see him leave himself open to a big counter down the stretch.

It will be a fun fight and Oscar Valdez will be very live, but I am expecting this to become the Shakur Stevenson show in the Championship Rounds and I think he will be looking to push ahead and stop this opponent.

I don't think Oscar Valdez will take a backwards step, which could leave him vulnerable to being put out on his shield and the feeling is that Stevenson is looking to earn the finish inside the distance.


There are a couple of top prospects on the undercard- both Nico Ali Walsh and Keyshawn Davis have made strong starts to their professional careers and both should be able to find stoppages.

However, there isn't much backing that to happen and instead I would say enjoy taking in two young, American stars that will be looking to headline in the years ahead.

MY PICKS: Amanda Serrano to Win Between 6-10 @ 7.00 Sky Bet (0.5 Units)
Katie Taylor to Win by Split Decision @ 11.00 Sky Bet (0.25 Units)
Amanda Serrano to Win by Split Decision @ 13.00 Sky Bet (0.25 Units)
Liam Smith to Win Between 7-12 @ 4.50 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Galal Yafai to Win Between 1-5 @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Austin Williams to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Shakur Stevenson to Win Between 7-12 @ 5.50 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Boxing 2022: 7-11, + 8.10 Units (34 Units Staked, + 23.82% Yield)

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