Another disappointing day for the Tennis Picks at the Monte Carlo Masters, but it was one filled with some frustration considering the level produced by those I selected.
The underdogs had strong showings throughout the day, but it is Quarter Final day on Friday and I do like a number of players to perform well enough to move through to the tennis this weekend.
We also have Billie Jean King Cup action over this weekend and any Picks from those matches on Friday will be added to this thread.
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina v Taylor Fritz: After spending a relatively short time on the court to win in straight sets, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Taylor Fritz have to be feeling pretty good about their chances of earning a spot in the Monte Carlo Masters Semi Final.
The top half of the draw looks very open and that means the two players will have a chance to put up some significant Ranking points. Taylor Fritz not only reached the Final of the Indian Wells Masters, but he won the title there so there may be confidence in his tennis which will be hard to contain, although the American is still a work in progress on the clay courts.
Winning matches is always a plus, but Taylor Fritz is still trying to figure out how to get the best out of his return on the clay courts. He has also benefited from an extremely kind draw which has meant Taylor Fritz has yet to beat anyone Ranked in the top 20 and he faces another opponent who is not within that mark.
However, Taylor Fritz is playing someone who is very comfortable on the clay courts and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has produced a strong tournament. The win over Novak Djokovic is the stand out, but the Spaniard has also beaten David Goffin who won the title in Marrakech last week and his numbers have been more impressive than the ones that Taylor Fritz has been able to manage.
Tougher opponents make the numbers more impressive, and it is the Davidovich Fokina return which could be the key to determine the outcome of this Quarter Final match.
Their previous two matches were split on the clay courts, but Taylor Fritz won the match in Madrid on a court that has traditionally been a much quicker clay court than the others in Europe. Three years ago it was Alejandro Davidovich Fokina who beat Fritz in Estoril in what was a tight match and I think he is going to be able to dig in and edge to another win over the American here in Monte Carlo.
Alexander Zverev - 3.5 games v Jannik Sinner: Over the next few years, this is a match that is likely going to be at the business end of many of the big tournaments being played on the Tour and especially when the likes of Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic call time on their careers.
At almost 25 years old, Alexander Zverev is considerably further along in his overall development compared with the 21 year old Italian Jannik Sinner and the numbers being produced by the higher Ranked player are at a superior level.
That is taking nothing away from Jannik Sinner who has been very impressive as soon as he made his breakthrough on the Tour. There is no doubting the talent and I do think Jannik Sinner is going to be a multiple time Grand Slam Champion, but he is still developing his game and to beat someone like Alexander Zverev is going to be a big challenge for him.
Jannik Sinner has played well in Monte Carlo, and his return has been a huge weapon for him. However, Sinner will be the first to admit that he is going to have to find a way to look after his serve more effectively than he has in the tournament so far with just 62% of points won behind this shot and holding 78% of his service games played.
While the return of serve has helped Jannik Sinner win his three matches here, Alexander Zverev's serve has been a potent weapon for him throughout this event. The German has had to win one less match after receiving a Bye in the First Round, but he has been dominant in those wins and Alexander Zverev has actually broken serve in 51% of his return games played.
He is winning a higher percentage of points behind serve compared with Sinner too and I do think Alexander Zverev will have the edge in this Quarter Final.
Jannik Sinner did upset Alexander Zverev at the French Open in 2020 during his epic run, but it is Alexander Zverev who has won their last two matches. Both of those have been on the hard courts, but Alexander Zverev has a serve that can be very effective on the clay courts as well as the faster surfaces and I think he will find the breaks he needs to earn a narrow edge in each set played and ultimately move through with a cover.
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 3.5 games v Diego Sebastian Schwartzman: There is plenty of respect for Diego Sebastian Schwartzman who has gotten every ounce out of his talent on the Tour and proved to be a pretty respectable player on all surfaces.
That point is underlined over the last twelve months with similar levels of numbers being produced on hard courts, clay courts and grass courts. It means Diego Sebastian Schwartzman has to be respected and he is an opponent that can be very difficult to beat if you are not playing your best tennis.
The return has been a big weapon for Diego Sebastian Schwartzman in Monte Carlo and he has needed to be at his best on this side of his tennis. It is largely down to the return that a player who has held just 67% of service games played has worked his way into the Quarter Final, although Diego Sebastian Schwartzman has bounced back from dropping the first set in two of his three matches to underline the kind of belief he has in his own game.
Stefanos Tsitsipas is expected to provide a much tougher test as one of the improving clay courters on the Tour. This may feel like his favourite surface and Stefanos Tsitsipas is still the defending Champion in Monte Carlo, while his two wins in the tournament have been behind some impressive numbers.
Of course this is a much tougher test than Fabio Fognini or Laslo Djere can offer, but Stefanos Tsitsipas has been serving well and it has allowed him to free up his arm and break in 31% of return games played. That is not a number that compares with Diego Sebastian Schwartzman's 50% mark, but I do think Stefanos Tsitsipas is going to believe he will have enough chances to break down the Argentine's serve as long as he looks after his own.
Over the last twelve months, Stefanos Tstisipas has put together the stronger performances on the clay courts of the two players and he can earn revenge for a defeat to Diego Sebastian Schwartzman on the hard courts at the ATP Cup in January. Diego Sebastian Schwartzman was much the better player that day, but Stefanos Tsitsipas has won their sole previous match on the clay courts and I think he will have enough big serving to get out of some tight spots and eventually pull clear of this tough opponent.
MY PICKS: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Monte Carlo Update: 9-11, - 5.46 Units (40 Units Staked, - 13.65% Yield)
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