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Tuesday 30 November 2021

Midweek Football Picks and Fantasy Football GameWeek 14 2021 (November 30-December 2)

I missed out on the Weekend post for the Fantasy Football GW13 and that is only good news after an awful performance from my team.

I ended up with more bookings than goals, but more on that below.

First, my thoughts on the full round of midweek Premier League games that will be played this week as the busy December schedule gets going for all in the top flight.


Newcastle United v Norwich City Pick: You don't really want to be talking about relegation six pointers at the end of November, but there is no disguising how important this fixture is to both Newcastle United and Norwich City.

Both are inside the relegation zone and both are operating under new management, although the feeling is that Newcastle United could make rapid progress up the Premier League table if they are in touch with those sides above them when the January transfer window opens up.

This week will go a long way to seeing them do that as Newcastle United look for a first win of the season- they face the two teams immediately above them in the Premier League standings over the coming days and I think Eddie Howe will be feeling very different pressures depending on the results earned.

The pressure is on Newcastle United, but they did play well in the 3-3 home draw with Brentford in Eddie Howe's first game in charge of the club. The Magpies created a lot of chances and they are facing a Norwich City team that is still a work in progress under Dean Smith and who have conceded plenty of away goals.

Dean Smith has led his team to four points from a possible six so the confidence will be better, but I expect Norwich City to be challenged by their hosts. The chances Newcastle United created in the game with Brentford is evidence of how Eddie Howe will want his team to play, but the defensive suspensions leave them vulnerable considering the amount of goals they have been conceding.

Newcastle United are vulnerable defensively, although you wouldn't be that encouraged in backing Norwich City to exploit them. The latter did create some decent chances against Wolves, but poor finishing has been letting them down and that does have me leaning towards the home team to earn a first win of the season.

However, the history of Eddie Howe suggests his teams will always give up chances even if they are able to create some and this may be a fixture that ends with at least three goals shared out. In their last away game, Norwich City did score twice in a win at Brentford and I think this is a game that could be sparked if there is a goal either way inside the first half hour.

When these clubs last met in February 2020, the fixture ended goalless here. That ended a run of five successive meetings between Newcastle United and Norwich City that ended with three or more goals scored and I think that is the most likely outcome of this one too.


Leeds United v Crystal Palace Pick: The midweek Premier League fixture list gives teams the chance to bounce back and build some momentum going into the very busy December month. Both Leeds United and Crystal Palace have to look at this as an opportunity and neither will be back in action until next Sunday so the two managers can urge their squad to produce a big performance.

This is a very tough match for both of these teams- Leeds United have underperformed this season, but they have saved some of their better performances for games at Elland Road. Losing key players at the top and bottom of the pitch has hurt Leeds United and prevented them building any consistency, while manager Marcelo Bielsa feels his squad have been overloaded by all of the football they have been asked to play.

Leeds United were poor against Brighton on Saturday and they can ill-afford to defend as poorly against a Crystal Palace team looking to bounce back from a 1-2 home loss to Aston Villa. Patrick Vieira's men have been in good form, but they continue to be vulnerable from set pieces and defensively there are more questions than answers under their new manager.

It is the change in mindset from Roy Hodgson to Patrick Vieira which has not helped, but it does mean Crystal Palace are posing more of a threat going forward. They are a team who can be very dangerous on the counter attack, but Crystal Palace have also been a little more confident with the ball and they have scored at least twice in 4 of their 6 away Premier League games this season.

Again, it is the defensive issues that have prevented Crystal Palace from winning more matches, but Leeds United have not been performing as they would have liked from an attacking point of view. They do have quality players in the home team that can cause problems with set piece play that has hurt The Eagles, but I also think Crystal Palace will head to Elland Road feeling confident about their own ability to create chances and score goals.

Crystal Palace do not have a good recent record at Elland Road with six straight losses here, but they are a team that is performing better than their results may indicate. I think they are capable of finding a positive result here with that in mind and to leave Leeds United perhaps scratching around for answers as to how they are going to pull clear of the bottom three.


Southampton v Leicester City Pick: For the second season in a row, Southampton were reduced to ten men inside 12 minutes in a home game against Leicester City, but this time they avoided an embarrassment.

The 0-9 home defeat will not be forgotten easily, but back in April Southampton battled and earned a 1-1 draw with Leicester City and they will need to do the same here after the 4-0 loss at Liverpool on Saturday. It was another naive team selection from Ralph Hasenhuttl, but the manager has guided Southampton to a pretty solid start to this season and he will be expecting a reaction.

Scoring enough goals continues to be the main concern around Southampton, but they are facing a Leicester City team who are conceding at an alarming rate. Even the 4-2 win over Watford won't have eased any concerns about the defensive performances and that was the 6th time in 8 Premier League games that they have conceded at least twice.

I expect the home team to have some joy going forward in this one, although Southampton are hard to trust as they continue to try and fill the Danny Ings sized hole at the top of the pitch. Che Adams and Adam Armstrong have shown flashes, but consistency is the key at the Premier League level and both need to improve.

The Saints are also not as strong defensively as some of their performances have suggested and six goals conceded since the November international break is a worry. Leicester City might be conceding goals, but they have been good in the final third at creating chances, while they had scored at least twice in 3 away games in a row in all competitions before the 1-1 draw at Leeds United.

Both teams may actually feel they are better off trying to get forward and hurt the other defensively and it could lead to a high-scoring game. That seems to be the lean most are having and I do think both teams will hit the back of the net in this one, while the three points should keep both motivated to push for a winner.

All 3 games between Leicester City and Southampton were low-scoring affairs last season, but on current form of the two defences, it would b a real surprise if that happens here on Wednesday evening.


Watford v Chelsea Pick: Games are going to be played every few days over the coming five and a half weeks and that puts pressure on every squad in the Premier League.

It has to be a big worry for Watford and their current manager when you think of the amount of injuries they are dealing with. Claudio Ranieri could be without key personnel at both ends of the pitch and that leaves Watford vulnerable, despite the fact that the fans will be back at Vicarage Road for the first time since hammering Manchester United.

Beating that English giant is not the same as beating the likes of Chelsea and Manchester City, who both visit Vicarage Road over the next few days, and I do think Watford could find it difficult. They were battered by Liverpool in Claudio Ranieri's first game in charge of Watford, and the worry for the home team is that they have struggled defensively in Ranieri's time at the helm.

Watford conceded four times on Sunday at Leicester City and now they have to take on a Chelsea team that have been creating plenty of chances even if they have suffered another frustrating day that resulted in dropped points.

The 1-1 draw with Manchester United will have hurt, but Chelsea have a quick opportunity to make amends and they have looked largely secure at the back.

Chelsea have not conceded in any of their last 4 away Premier League games and 3 of those have ended in 0-3 wins with a lot more composure shown without the pressure of playing at Stamford Bridge. I think that could show up here against the injury hit hosts they are facing and Chelsea may even have Romelu Lukaku back to lead the line on Wednesday as they look to get back to winning ways.

Games at Vicarage Road have never really been easy for Chelsea, but this may be one of the more straight-forward wins they are able to produce. I think they are likely to come away with a comfortable win on the night with another strong defensive display helping lay the foundation for Chelsea to attack a vulnerable Watford backline.


West Ham United v Brighton Pick: Both of these teams had disappointing results this past weekend, but the Brighton management team have to be happier by what they have seen in terms of a performance.

On another day, Brighton would have comfortably seen off Leeds United, but poor finishing has become a feature of the club under Graham Potter. The overall football is very good to watch, but Brighton missed some golden chances and look like they are back to underperforming when it comes to converting good chances into goals.

Even with that in mind, it was a real surprise to hear the Brighton fans boo off their team and manager Graham Potter was clearly irritated by the supporters. It is a massive surprise that Brighton fans feel that way and perhaps they should speak to Charlton Athletic fans who got above their station at a time the club were overachieving.

Being away from home may not be a bad thing for Brighton this week, but they are facing a West Ham United team who have been performing well in recent games at the London Stadium. David Moyes will be demanding his team to bounce back from sub-par performances at Wolves and Manchester City which have led to deserved defeats, and this has been a tough match up for West Ham United.

Since Brighton have been promoted back to the top Division, West Ham United have failed to beat them at home. That might play on them at the back of their minds, while Brighton have continued to defend well enough to be able to give opponents some real problems.

They can't really be trusted in front of goal though, even with the amount of goals they have managed at the London Stadium, while West Ham United have looked a little lethargic in the final third in their last couple of Premier League games.

This could see this match develop into a tight, competitive affair and I would not be surprised if one of the teams fail to find the back of the net. Both have defended pretty well at times this season, but since returning from the November international break, both have also had some difficulties creating good chances.

My lean is with the home team to bounce back, but they may need a clean sheet to do that.


Wolves v Burnley Pick: Having a few extra days off from the intensity of a Premier League fixture may work in Burnley's favour, but they are also going to be missing a couple of key players in what may have been considered the more winnable of two games to be played.

James Tarkowski and Ashley Westwood are both yet to serve a suspension and I do think that could leave Burnley vulnerable, even if Wolves are unlikely to be a team to blow away any opponent they face.

Wolves have been better at home in recent weeks though and have won 3 Premier League games in a row here and I do think that will give them confidence. They were not at their best in the goalless draw at Norwich City on Saturday, but Wolves remain a pretty steady team defensively.

Bruno Lage is frustrated that he is only operating with a relatively small squad and that means freshening things up is not a great option for him. Wolves have a couple of big League games to come here over the next few days and the manager will be looking to manage the minutes as much as he can.

His team also played this past weekend, while Burnley ended up getting more rest than anticipated, and I do think Wolves are a plenty short price considering their lack of goals. Burnley have continued to churn out results away from home, even where they have had to ride their luck, but they won't find it easy to score against Wolves.

Goals may not be the order of the day in this fixture considering the attacking issues both have had. 3 of the last 4 between these clubs at Molineux have ended with one, or both, of the teams failing to score and I think that may be the outcome of this fixture too considering the struggles we have seen for consistency in the final third.


Aston Villa v Manchester City Pick: You have to be a little impressed with the way that Steven Gerrard's first two games managing Aston Villa have gone, but I also think this is a squad that have been underachieving this season. While we will never know if Dean Smith could have gotten a reaction from the squad, I do think Aston Villa are capable of stringing some positive results together.

The players are working hard for their new manager, but I also think Aston Villa have been fortunate to beat both Brighton and Crystal Palace. They are going to need to be a lot better to see off Manchester City, even with the injuries faced by the Champions, and this is going to be a test for the young, inexperienced Aston Villa manager who has rarely pitted wits with someone like Pep Guardiola.

It was part of the reason Steven Gerrard wanted to manage in the Premier League and he will be working on his team to show defensive discipline and try and frustrate the Manchester City attack. That has been the approach for Aston Villa in their wins over the last couple of games, but I do think it will be a different test to try and contain Manchester City.

Even without Kevin De Bruyne, Phil Foden and Jack Grealish, Manchester City have created chances and looked capable of scoring goals. Raheem Sterling may not have been given a lot of opportunities to this point of the season, but he has taken his chances back in the starting line up and Manchester City have refused to miss a beat because of injuries.

Defensively they have looked largely secure and Aston Villa will have to take their chances on the counter attack and hope for something to break their way. Manchester City simply don't offer a lot of spaces, while the Crystal Palace blueprint has been difficult for teams to replicate.

Aston Villa may have the speed and quality to try and do that, but I think Manchester City have momentum. They have won 3 of their last 4 away games in all competitions, while Manchester City are dominating the chances in recent games that should be the direction this fixture ends up developing.

As much as the results have improved under their new manager, Aston Villa have yet to really convince and now they have to take on the hottest team in the Premier League. Aston Villa have a poor recent home record against Manchester City and I think the visitors will produce a big performance at Villa Park once again.


Everton v Liverpool Pick: The first Merseyside derby of the season comes at a bad time for Everton and their fans and even hosting the fixture may not be enough to earn a positive result.

Injuries and a loss of form for players has really hurt Everton and the feeling that Rafael Benitez may not be a very good fit here increases in each passing week. Another defeat in the Premier League on Sunday has seen Everton slump back towards the bottom three and you do have to wonder where the club will go if they are beaten by rivals Liverpool on Wednesday.

Rafael Benitez has not been helped by the injuries that have hurt the team right through the spine of the first eleven, but excuses are not going to cut it for a fanbase that links Benitez with their rivals from across Stanley Park. Everton have not been competitive enough in recent fixtures and I think they are facing a really tough night in the office.

In recent years Everton have made it very difficult for Liverpool at Goodison Park and the last 4 derby games here have ended in draws. However, they are now facing a Liverpool team that looks to be in rampant mood when it comes to their attacking output and back to back 4-0 home wins in the Premier League will only improve the mood of the visitors.

Liverpool have also scored 21 away goals in the Premier League already this season and they have been scoring goals regularly on their travels too. That is a real concern for an Everton team who shipped five home goals to Watford not too long ago and I do think they are going to struggle to contain Liverpool.

A Merseyside derby should mean you can throw some of the form guide out of the window, but I am not sure that is the case for this December meeting. Liverpool have been scoring so many goals that it is hard to imagine Everton being able to stay with them, while the fans could make it a very difficult atmosphere for the home team if they fall behind relatively early in this one.

Liverpool have not won by two or more goals at Goodison Park since October 2011, but a little over ten years later they can do the same as they keep the pressure on those above them in the League table.


Tottenham Hotspur v Brentford Pick: Extra preparation time has been afford to Tottenham Hotspur after the game with Burnley was postponed this past Sunday and Antonio Conte will be readying his players for three important home games to be played over an eight day period.

The manager was furious with some of the performances of his squad members last Thursday, but the first team have looked pretty good in the first two Premier League games under Antonio Conte. Tottenham Hotspur created plenty of chances in their win over Leeds United and there are continued signs that Harry Kane might be close to returning to his best form.

For all the negatives about this Tottenham Hotspur team, they are only 4 points off the Champions League places and have a game in hand. Home games with Brentford and Norwich City represent a good chance for Tottenham Hotspur to build momentum and I do think they are going to be too good for their visitors on Thursday.

Thomas Frank did oversee an important win for Brentford on Sunday, but his team have just found things a little more difficult of late. They want to play football in a certain manner, but Brentford are dealing with injuries to some key players and I think they have looked way more vulnerable at the back in their last couple of away games.

Most will be able to see that from the fact that Brentford conceded three times to both Burnley and Newcastle United, but the real worry has to be the amount of chances that both of those struggling teams created. Now it is up to Brentford to try and contain a Tottenham Hotspur team with more talented attackers than Burnley and Newcastle United and I do think the home team will prove to be too strong on the day.

Last season Tottenham Hotspur secured a 2-0 win over Brentford in the League Cup Semi Final and I do think something similar will occur here. Antonio Conte is still trying to put his own stamp on the Tottenham Hotspur team, but the first team have responded pretty well to the manager and I think those players will be restored after the squad players underperformed as badly as they did at Mura in the Europa Conference League.

Tottenham Hotspur's first team should be good enough to expose the issues Brentford have been having at the back in recent away games and I will look for the home team to win a game featuring at least two goals on the night.


Manchester United v Arsenal Pick: There is a renewed optimism around Manchester United after the appointment of Ralf Rangnick on an interim basis, but the fact that the German will be sticking around on a consultancy basis should mean there is a uniform direction in which the club wishes to travel.

It has been a long time since Manchester United have had a clear plan so fans are cautiously optimistic that they have finally realised they need to do this in order to get back to the top of the pile both in England and in Europe.

The new manager will not be taking charge on Thursday, but I expect him to have an input into the team selection. Michael Carrick will be leading the team out as he looks to complete an unbeaten tenure in caretaker charge of Manchester United, but his team will have to be a lot better than they were at Stamford Bridge on Sunday.

A defensive game plan saw Manchester United take advantage of a big Chelsea mistake to take the lead, but they never looked comfortable in looking to defend that for the victory. On another day Manchester United would have lost with that level of performance, while they return to Old Trafford looking to erase recent negative memories.

The Theatre of Dreams was turned into a nightmare by Liverpool and Manchester City who have won the last 2 games played here without breaking a sweat.

At least this week Manchester United are not taking on one of the elite clubs of European Football and instead facing an Arsenal team who are still looking for a statement win and performance. Mikel Arteta has to be given a lot of credit for helping his team win games they are expected to win though and that has seen Arsenal move to the edge of the Champions League places in the Premier League.

Arsenal have won 5 of their last 6 games in all competitions so confidence should not be a problem. They also kept 3 clean sheets in a row away from home in the Premier League, but Arsenal have been thumped at Manchester City in August and, more recently, at Liverpool a little under two weeks ago.

That shows there is still work to be done to bridge the gap to the top teams, but, like Manchester United, Arsenal will feel this opponent is not up to those levels.

It could lead to a tight game and matches between Arsenal and Manchester United have not been as free-scoring as they were when these two clubs were the leading Premier League teams. Last season they shared out a single goal in 2 Premier League matches and the last 5 between these two clubs have all featured fewer than three goals on the day.

Manchester United have been looking to be a little more responsible defensively and they may be able to keep Arsenal at arm's length. However, that approach has meant Manchester United are not as efficient going forward and Arsenal may feel they can at least contain the attack they face.

The first goal is going to be massive in this game and I think there is going to be little between them on the day. Both have talented attacking players that may be able to create something out of nothing, but I think the defences will largely be on top of this one and the layers may not appreciate that right now.

MY PICKS: Newcastle United-Norwich City Over 2.5 Goals
Crystal Palace + 0.25 Asian Handicap
Southampton-Leicester City Over 2.5 Goals
Chelsea - 1.5 Asian Handicap
West Ham United-Brighton Both Teams to Score- NO
Wolves-Burnley Both Teams to Score- NO
Manchester City - 1.25 Asian Handicap
Liverpool - 1.25 Asian Handicap
Tottenham Hotspur & Over 1.5 Goals
Manchester United-Arsenal Under 2.5 Goals


Fantasy Football GameWeek 14
Weather was supposedly going to play havoc with some of the games in the North West of England, but those conditions were largely expected to be calmer on Sunday.

However, it did not work out as expected and the Burnley vs Tottenham Hotspur postponement really hurt- especially as one of the Free Transfers I used in GW13 were to replace Cristiano Ronaldo with Harry Kane.

Ultimately it was a longer term move and Kane can make up for the missed game with back to back home games against Brentford and Norwich City, but it did not make me feel much better after an awful return from my team.

Picking up more yellow cards than goals is never going to end well and I frustrated myself by waiting another week before making the move from Kai Havertz to Diogo Jota- that indecision has proved costly, but that is the sole transfer I am making in GW14 with a solid looking squad... Well as far as I am concerned anyway.

Finishing up with only 10 starters was a massive blow and I am a little down on the way I have approached things.

I am certainly going to rebalance some of the squad with a couple of hits over the coming GWs, which are turning around pretty quickly in December. The likes of Andreas Christensen, Teemu Pukki and Nelson Semedo are high on my hit-list, but I am not going to be targeting those high owned players like Trent Alexander-Arnold.

I have an idea as to my approach, but Fantasy Football changes quickly and you can never look too far ahead.

However, I do think it is key for a strong squad and a couple of hits should ensure I have eleven starters in most weeks.


Looking at the fixture lists coming up, Manchester United assets look really appealing, but a new manager means there are going to be new ideas that need to be incorporated. It may take a couple of games to figure out what Ralf Rangnick wants to do with the current squad, but we may not see his first team selection until the home game with Crystal Palace on Sunday in GW15 and I will have to make some assumptions about this approach if I want to bring in the United assets for the start of a really good run of games.

It is something I will be thinking about in the coming days, but any move won't be until GW16 and I have some idea about which players I really think will thrive under the interim manager.

That's for another day though and the quick turnaround between GW13 and GW14 means it is a deadline that could catch some out this week.

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