It has been a good start to the Tennis Picks from the WTA Finals, but it has only been a start.
That is what the four losing players from the first two days will be telling themselves, but the pressure is on when we get to the middle matches of the Group Stage of the tournament. We may even see the first of the Semi Finalists confirmed by the end of Saturday nights play, but players cannot afford to look too far ahead in difficult conditions.
The tournament here is as much a mental challenge as it is a physical one and the players who cope best with both aspects will do well. You don't want to read too much into one match, but Maria Sakkari and Karolina Pliskova look like they are capable going far in the draw.
It can all change quickly at the Tour Finals and the next days play is always the most important rather than thinking too far down the line.
Karolina Pliskova + 2.5 games v Anett Kontaveit: The format of the WTA Finals puts the two opening winners up against one another and both Karolina Pliskova and Anett Kontaveit will be looking to secure a second victory which may be enough to move through to the Semi Final. There is arguably a little more pressure on Karolina Pliskova who needed three sets to beat Garbine Muguruza compared with Anett Kontaveit who was a straight sets winner, but I think the layers are putting in too much stock in the length of the opening matches when setting the odds for this match.
You can't underestimate Anett Kontaveit who has now won eleven matches in a row and who is playing with real confidence under a new Coach Dmitry Tursunov. The Estonian will be looking to build on the last couple of months and hope to have a big impact at Grand Slam level in 2022 as she begins to fulfil her potential, and Anett Kontaveit's serve was in very good nick which helped her edge past Barbora Krejcikova.
She is going to have to serve well again on Friday, but Anett Kontaveit should be feeling good about her chances as she is set to go in the afternoon slot for a second match in a row. This will be a new experience for Karolina Pliskova, and the Czech player is going to want to improve her own serving numbers to stay with her in-form opponent.
However, Karolina Pliskova impressed on the return in the win over Garbine Muguruza and she will feel there is an opportunity for her to earn what the layers will consider to be an upset. She created a lot more break point chances in her win than Anett Kontaveit managed and that is despite the fact that Karolina Pliskova was arguably facing a stronger server on the day.
If she can get used to the conditions in the early afternoon slot, I do think Karolina Pliskova can keep this one very competitive at the least. The long opening match with Muguruza is an issue, but Pliskova has had time to recover and I do think the serve is a potent weapon for her that can keep this match very close.
Karolina Pliskova also holds a 3-0 head to head lead over Anett Kontaveit and that can be important if the match is close, especially when they are playing the big points in the match. I can't help but respect how well Anett Kontaveit has played since the Olympic Games as she bulled her way into the WTA Finals, but I am surprised she is considered such a big favourite to win this second match.
Anett Kontaveit is going to have to pick up her returning if she is going to win this match and I think this is plenty of games to be giving to the underdog.
Barbora Krejcikova v Garbine Muguruza: Losing your opening two matches at the Finals of either Tour event is not fatal to earning a Semi Final berth, but it certainly means you lose complete control of your own destiny. It would also need a set of results that are hard to come by for that player to have an opportunity to progress and it is particularly difficult if you have lost your opening match in straight sets.
Both Barbora Krejcikova and Garbine Muguruza were beaten on Wednesday and they will be looking to bounce back on Friday when meeting one another. The winner will have a chance of progressing when playing their last Group match, but you have to believe the unique conditions in Guadalajara will make it very difficult for the losing player both physically and emotionally.
After losses, both players are looking to bounce back- Barbora Krejcikova will be the first to admit she was not at her best a couple of days ago and she has perhaps been less than 100% down the stretch after a long season. On the other side, Garbine Muguruza will feel she was very close to winning her opening match, but that loss coupled with the almost two and a half hours spent on the court will be difficult to overcome.
Garbine Muguruza did not play that badly, but she did not manage the big points as effectively as she would have liked after winning the first set against Karolina Pliskova. It was a gruelling match, but will have felt all the worse coming out with a loss and this has proven to be a very difficult match up for the Spaniard.
The two players have faced each other three times already this season and all on the hard courts- it was Garbine Muguruza who won the first match in Dubai, but Barbora Krejcikova was a Grand Slam Champion by the time they met again in Cincinnati and at the US Open and deservedly won both matches.
They both created the same amount of break points in the Dubai Final, but Barbora Krejcikova has been the much more effective returner in the other two matches. She won both and I do think the Czech player was serving well enough in her opening defeat to believe she can get the better of Garbine Muguruza on that side of her game in this match.
There have been signs that Barbora Krejcikova is perhaps wearing down after a long season and she is also playing the Doubles tournament here. That is a concern, but I think the match up with Garbine Muguruza is one that the Czech player has enjoyed this season and she can get the better of her one more time to give herself a chance of progressing to the Semi Final.
MY PICKS: Karolina Pliskova + 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Barbora Krejcikova @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
WTA Finals Update: 4-0, + 6.90 Units (8 Units Staked, + 86.25% Yield)
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