After a strong start to the WTA Finals, Day 3 was a little frustrating, but the tournament continues with the middle matches to be completed.
One Semi Final spot has been confirmed with Anett Kontaveit moving through to continue her fine form, but another could be decided when Maria Sakkari takes on Paula Badosa in the first match of Day 4.
Maria Sakkari v Paula Badosa: Both of these players won their opening WTA Finals match in straight sets and that means the winner of this one will be virtually assured of a place in the Semi Final. Maria Sakkari and Paula Badosa were the two most impressive players through the opening two days at the WTA Finals and this has all the makings of a really quality match.
Over the last twelve months there has been a slight edge in favour of Maria Sakkari when it comes to the hard court matches, and she was a strong winner over Iga Swiatek. The serve proved to be a big weapon for the aggressive player and Maria Sakkari will need to be as efficient behind that shot again if she is going to win a second match in the Group.
Playing the Indian Wells Champion will be a challenge and especially after Paula Badosa used the energy of the crowd to win ten games in a row as she upset Aryna Sabalenka in her opening match in Guadalajara. The Spanish background means the Mexicans have something to relate to with Paula Badosa and they seemed to be very much pushing her to come back from an early break of serve as she rolled past Sabalenka.
Paula Badosa played well and her return was particularly efficient in the match and the feeling is that the layers are right to set this as a pick 'em match. The more impressive win in the opening matches has to be on the side of Paula Badosa as she was the underdog against the top Seed at the tournament, but I do think Aryna Sabalenka is someone who can let a match get away from her in the manner we saw.
That should not be the case with Maria Sakkari who has been happy to face the better players on the Tour and I do think she enjoyed the conditions here. She has already played in the early afternoon slot so that should benefit Maria Sakkari a little more in this match, while I think she has been a touch more consistency from the Greek player on the hard courts that suggest she can be the player that backs up the opening win.
It will be a close match and I would not be surprised if this one needs three sets to separate the two players, but my feeling is that Maria Sakkari can edge to the victory. Over the last twelve months, Maria Sakkari has been the player who has gotten a little more out of the serve than Paula Badosa and I expect that to be the difference between the on the day as the two players dig in to try and earn a Semi Final spot.
Aryna Sabalenka - 1.5 games v Iga Swiatek: It is not always that interesting to hear what a player has to say after a losing performance as they can be too disappointed to really want to analyse what may have gone wrong on the day. That is not the case at the Tour Finals and especially not early in the tournament when players know they have a couple more matches to come.
That is not to say that these players are both not feeling like they let themselves down in the opening match.
Both Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek were quite critical of themselves after losing their matches on Thursday and there is some mental hurdles that will need to be overcome. Aryna Sabalenka had been leading 4-2 early in her match with Paula Badosa, but lost serve immediately and admitted that she was emotionally unable to cope as she ended up dropping ten games in a row to lose the match.
Some of that was down to the fact that Aryna Sabalenka may have felt there was not a lot of fortune coming down on her side of the net, but the Belarusian also knows she cannot allow matches to slip away in the manner she did. This is a chance to redeem herself against an opponent who was also pretty harsh on her own level after losing to Maria Sakkari.
Iga Swiatek has played Sakkari three times in 2021 and lost all three matches without winning a set and felt she had not really competed after losing serve very early on. It is a match up that she has struggled with, but that is not likely to be the case against someone like Aryna Sabalenka when it is much clearer what she is going to be facing on the other side of the net.
However, knowing what is coming and dealing with what is coming is a different story and this is a tournament in which the serve is going to be so important. That is an area that Aryna Sabalenka should be able to have an edge over Iga Swiatek, although you do have to think the Polish player will be more confident in avoiding making the mistakes that blighted both of their opening performances.
There has also been a difference in the levels produced by the players when facing opponents Ranked inside the top 10 on the hard courts. Aryna Sabalenka has a winning record in that spot, while Iga Swiatek is 0-3 and I think the bigger hitting Belarusian can find a way to win and cover the handicap as she gets her tournament back on track.
MY PICKS: Maria Sakkari @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Aryna Sabalenka - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
WTA Finals Update: 4-2, + 2.90 Units (12 Units Staked, + 24.17% Yield)
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