The opening matches at the WTA Finals have been played and there were definite signs of some early struggles with the conditions.
While the tennis was decent enough, which has to be expected from the top eight WTA players, there were moments when you could see the frustration of players as the ball flew off the strings. The conditioning is also going to be tested and so the long, long match between Karolina Pliskova and Garbine Muguruza is likely going to have a big impact on both players.
They do have a day of rest between the first and second Group matches, but both players admitted the physical effort that was required and in the final set tie-breaker you could see the impact of the altitude on the players.
The Picks from the WTA Finals got off to a good start, but there is plenty of time for things to change so the key is to remain focused. The ATP Finals will get underway on Sunday, but for now the sole selections come from Guadalajara.
Maria Sakkari - 1.5 games v Iga Swiatek: There have been plenty of 'complaints' from the top players of the WTA Tour as they continue to try and make the adjustments to the conditions in Guadalajara. The altitude is one that they simply will not face during the Tour and all eight Singles players have voiced their own concerns about how they are going to adapt.
However, adapt they will.
Ultimately the tournament is not going to be moved now and so all the players involved have to try and manage their emotions during this event. There will be frustrating moments with the difficulty to control the ball as they would normally do on the Tour, while players have admitted they are going to have to deal with making mistakes that wouldn't usually occur.
Being mentally strong through these moments is going to be key throughout the WTA Finals and I do think someone like Maria Sakkari has shown she can cope on that front. The Greek player came very close to winning a maiden Grand Slam title this season and she has shown considerable improvements, although the numbers continue to be a little underwhelming which leaves Maria Sakkari vulnerable to an upset.
This tournament may suit her with many feeling that Maria Sakkari is not amongst the favourites and I do think that will see her produce some of her better tennis. No one on the Tour really intimidates Maria Sakkari and she has admitted that making the WTA Finals was a big goal that has been achieved in 2021.
She opens up against Iga Swiatek who has had another hugely successful year on the Tour even if she has not added to the French Open title she won the previous year. Iga Swiatek has not played since the Indian Wells tournament in October, but she has produced some solid numbers on the hard courts and I do think her game might be suited to the conditions with the spin meaning she is capable of avoiding the mistakes that the more aggressive players will make.
It should give Iga Swiatek a chance to win this opening Group match, but there are a couple of factors that do have me leaning towards Maria Sakkari. Her hard court numbers may not be as strong as Iga Swiatek's overall, but the players have had vastly different experiences playing against top 20 Ranked players on the hard courts with Sakkari holding a winning record in 2021 and Iga Swiatek at just 2-5 in the situation.
Add in the two wins that Maria Sakkari has secured against Iga Swiatek in 2021- one of those ended the latter's reign as French Open Champion, while another win came on the hard courts of Ostrava at the end of September. In both Maria Sakkari has deserved her wins with her serve proven to be effective and I do think a strong serving day will give her the chance of winning this match too.
Dealing with the conditions will be a challenge for both players, but I think Maria Sakkari can edge to the win in three sets in this opening Group match.
Paula Badosa + 2.5 games v Aryna Sabalenka: There is no doubting how good Aryna Sabalenka can be on her day, but the World Number 2 and the top Seed at the WTA Finals will only feel she has proved herself when she wins a Grand Slam. The Belarusian will feel she let a big opportunity slip through her hands at the US Open when being upset in the Semi Final by a player she had largely outplayed in the match, and there has been little tennis played by Aryna Sabalenka since that defeat in New York City.
Like many of the other seven players in the WTA Finals, Aryna Sabalenka has arrived a few days early to Guadalajara in a bid to become accustomed to the conditions at the tournament. And like many others, Aryna Sabalenka has admitted that she has had to change the tension of her racquet strings and has been looking to get as much practice as possible to try and be ready to compete at the tournament.
She is likely going to enter all four Grand Slams amongst the favourites to win in 2022, but Sabalenka will be looking to win the biggest tournament of her career to lay the foundation for further successes. It may mean Aryna Sabalenka perhaps finding another way to win matches when she is not at her best and when errors begin to flow from her side of the court, but in the main the World Number 2 wants to come out and hit through her opponent.
It won't be easy to do that at the WTA Finals where errors could come thick and fast in the conditions the players are dealing with. Even then, Aryna Sabalenka is the favourite to win this match and she has the kind of power game that can be very difficult for opponents to deal with.
First up for Aryna Sabalenka is Paula Badosa who has enjoyed a very strong second half of the season on the hard courts. The Spaniard is at her career best World Ranking as she continues to show off her development on the Tour and Paula Badosa will be confident going into the tournament after winning a big title at Indian Wells in October.
Paula Badosa beat four top 20 Ranked players on her way to the title at Indian Wells and she has produced some solid hard court numbers since the Olympic Games. During that time she also holds a three set victory over Aryna Sabalenka so I expect the Spaniard to be confident in her ability to secure an opening success in her first ever WTA Finals match.
The key for Paula Badosa is making sure she serves well to try and keep Aryna Sabalenka at bay and it was that side of her game that enabled her to beat this opponent on the relatively quick courts of Cincinnati. Conditions here are different, but I think Paula Badosa is capable of frustrating Aryna Sabalenka into some big errors in the altitude of the WTA Finals.
In their one previous match, Paula Badosa did produce the slightly stronger returning and I do think she is capable of winning at least one set, which should mean this could be a close match. She certainly can make hay with the handicap start and I will look for Paula Badosa to play the cleaner match of the two players and keep this one close at the least.
MY PICKS: Maria Sakkari - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Paula Badosa + 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
WTA Finals Update: 2-0, + 3.42 Units (4 Units Staked, + 85.50% Yield)
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