There are only five players that are officially left in the ATP World Tour Finals and by the end of the afternoon session we will know all four Semi Finalists that will be competing for the last Singles title of 2021.
The line up for the next couple of days looks strong and there will be some top matches to watch as players look to lay down a marker for 2022. It should be a lot of fun for those tuning in and I am hoping the Tennis Picks will also round out the season in good form.
Andrey Rublev - 2.5 games v Casper Ruud: Both of these players have won one match and lost the other in the Group and that means there is a Semi Final spot on the line on Friday afternoon. The ATP Finals organisers have made the right decision to put this Group match on first on Friday with the likelihood that they will be playing in the first Semi Final on Saturday and there is plenty on the line for both Andrey Rublev and Casper Ruud.
They have faced different opponents in the match they have won in Turin, but both Andrey Rublev and Casper Ruud were well beaten by Novak Djokovic who looks like a man on a mission this week. There are some similarities in their performances against the World Number 1 after they both opened up with a break of the serve, but Rublev and Ruud were well beaten and will need to be much stronger in the next Round, regardless of who goes through.
Andrey Rublev will hold the mental edge having beaten Casper Ruud in all four previous matches on the Tour and three of those have been on the clay courts, which is a favoured surface of the latter. On the hard courts, Andrey Rublev has been considerably stronger than Casper Ruud and especially when it comes to facing some of the top names on the Tour and I think the Russian player can get the better of his opponent here.
The serve is going to be a key weapon for the two players, but that is an area in which Andrey Rublev can find a little more pop and it could be decisive in the conditions. In matches against the top names on the Tour on the hard courts, Casper Ruud has really not had an easy time serving or returning and this is where he could come short again.
Casper Ruud has only broken in 20% of return games played against Andrey Rublev and that is considerably lower than the 38% mark that the latter holds in their head to head. In their two meetings in 2021, Rublev's return has been much stronger than Casper Ruud's and I think he will be able to hammer his way past the Norwegian player in this winner takes all contest.
The Russian impressed in his win over Stefanos Tsitsipas and he should be good enough to cover the handicap set for this match as he moves into a big Semi Final against compatriot Daniil Medvedev.
Novak Djokovic - 5.5 games v Cameron Norrie: With the Semi Final scheduled less than twenty-four hours after this match begins, you have to feel that Novak Djokovic is not going to want to exert too much energy into this final Group match. He is not only through to the Semi Final, but Djokovic will know there is a big match coming up against Alexander Zverev, the player who ended his hopes of winning the Olympic Gold Medal in the summer.
That has to be the focus for Novak Djokovic, but he also will want to avoid going into the next Round of the tournament with a defeat behind him. Balancing the two is not going to be easy, but Novak Djokovic is used to playing multiple days in succession to win tournaments and he did have Thursday off to recuperate and get himself ready for the challenges he is going to face this weekend.
The final Group match is against Cameron Norrie and not Stefanos Tsitsipas who has withdrawn from the tournament. All credit has to be given to Norrie for even being an alternate here as the new British Number 1 and Cameron Norrie did win a big title in Indian Wells since the US Open, while also showing considerable improvement on all surfaces over the course of the season.
Cameron Norrie may feel his best surface is the hard courts, but he was not at his best in the first match he has played in Turin which ended in a defeat to Casper Ruud even after an incredibly fast start to the match. That has eliminated him and means the Tour Finals will have to wait at least one more year before an alternate player makes the Semi Final, but this is a good chance for Cameron Norrie to test himself against the best players in the world.
Now he has to face THE best player in the world and the numbers have taken a significant dent when he has faced top 20 and then further when facing top 10 Ranked players. That isn't a massive surprise, but Cameron Norrie has only held 74% of his service games played on the hard courts against top 10 Ranked players compared with 80% over the course of 2021 on the surface.
Where the big impact has been is on the return of serve with the break percentage dropping from 30% overall to just 10% when playing a top 10 Ranked opponent on a hard court in 2021. Facing Novak Djokovic is a huge challenge at the best of times and the World Number 1 has looked increasingly focused in Turin which may be his last big Singles tournament until February or March 2022 if the rules at the Australian Open means Djokovic will need to skip the event he has dominated in his career.
That is for another day, but this tournament also feels like a real chance for Novak Djokovic to stamp his authority over the next generation of talent that may feel they are getting closer to the top player in the world. Winning in Turin would mean an aura is around Djokovic once again entering every Grand Slam in which he competes and that kind of mental edge will not be lost on the Serb.
Novak Djokovic has produced potent serving numbers this week and he has only added to that by producing an immense amount of pressure from his return of serve. He has broken his first two opponents at least three times each and I think he will be focused from the off to make sure he is not dragged into a battle in this one and that should mean a tough evening for Cameron Norrie.
It is a big spread, but Novak Djokovic is more than covering through his exceptional returning and I will look for him to do that.
MY PICKS: Andrey Rublev - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
WTA Finals: 7-8, - 3.84 Units (30 Units Staked, - 12.80% Yield)
ATP Finals: 4-1, + 4.98 Units (10 Units Staked, + 49.80% Yield)
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