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Wednesday, 10 November 2021

Tennis Picks 2021- WTA Finals (November 10th)

The world changed in March 2020 and the Tennis Tour has only just begun to recover to produce tournaments on a weekly basis.

However, the Asian part of the Tour has yet to return with issues surrounding Covid-19 and that has meant there has been a number of one-year deals given to events around the world. That includes moving the WTA Finals for a one year appearance in Guadalajara and it is a tournament where the players are going to be as unfamiliar with their surroundings as the fans.

There has been plenty of controversy about moving the tournament here and the altitude could play havoc on the quality of tennis that will be seen by the fans. However, it should be a competitive tournament and the absence of Ashleigh Barty means the top eight players involved are separated by just 1700 points in the World Rankings.


We have yet to see a 2022 ATP/WTA calendar produced by the Tours and that says all you need to know about the uncertainty that is hindering a sport that plays in multiple countries throughout the season. The Australian Open is set to return to its usual spot in January, although there is still no clarification as to whether players are going to need to be vaccinated or not if they are to enter Australia and play in the first Grand Slam of the season.

The tournaments in and around the Australian Open have yet to be secured and there should be plenty of news to come.

At least the 2021 Tour is set to be concluded with three top tournaments.

I am looking for three strong events to wrap up the season and over the last nineteen months I have mainly focused on the absolute biggest events with the uncertainty around the other events. It has been a reasonable season, but I am hoping the Tour has a more familiar look and feel next season and one in which outside factors begin to play less and less a part in how events come together.

After the WTA Finals, ATP Finals and the Davis Cup tournament, the next Tennis Picks are likely to come at the events that open the 2022 season before the Australian Open gets underway in mid-January.


Anett Kontaveit - 3.5 games v Barbora Krejcikova: Ons Jabeur has made her mark in tennis with her successes this season and she will be an inspiration to girls in and around the Middle East and Northern Africa. However, it is Anett Kontaveit's strong run since the Olympic Games which has seen her edge out Jabeur for the final place at the WTA Finals.

This is the first time an Estonian player has made the Finals and Anett Kontaveit can thank a ten match winning run to end the season for her place in Mexico. She has won two titles in that run and it meant earning 76 more points over Ons Jabeur, which is just enough to take her place in the field.

The question for Anett Kontaveit is how much energy has she used to earn her spot- she has played thirty matches since the Olympic Games and that is a lot more than the rest of her peers in this tournament. At least she has had a few days off to prepare for this tournament, but Anett Kontaveit has to use it as setting a marker for the 2022 season on the WTA Tour, which remains very open when you think of how little there is in terms of points between the top players.

First up for Anett Kontaveit is Barbora Krejcikova who has had a stunning season in which she won the French Open and has Qualified for the WTA Finals both as a Singles player and a Doubles player. The Czech player lost a couple of matches at the BJK Cup earlier this month and it has been a long seson for Barbora Krejcikova and there has been signs that it is catching up with her.

Barbora Krejcikova is obviously excited about playing her first WTA Finals as a Singles player, but she has lost three matches in a row. The two players in this opening Group match have very similar numbers on the hard courts since the end of the Olympic Games, but the difference between them has been on the return with the aggressive approach of Anett Kontaveit leading to winning 47% of return points played compared with Barbora Krejcikova's 43% mark.

Much is going to depend on which of the players is capable of judging the conditions the best and making sure they are on the front foot by getting the first serve in play. Altitude can be difficult to deal with and that is where the conditioning of the players and the huge amount of matches played by Anett Kontaveit could come back to hurt her.

However, I can't help but admire the strong performances put together by the lower Ranked player. The second serve is a little vulnerable, but I think the long season may affect Barbora Krejcikova a little more than Anett Kontaveit and the matches they have recently played against top 20 opponents on the hard courts favour the latter to come through this match.

I love the fight that Barbora Krejcikova plays with and this is a big handicap mark if she is at her best, but signs at the BJK Cup suggests that is not the case at this moment. Anett Kontaveit has momentum and she has been battering her way past opponents and I think she can keep that up for at least one more match as she makes a positive start to this Group.


Karolina Pliskova - 1.5 games v Garbine Muguruza: Skipping the BJK Cup to focus on a long run at the WTA Finals has to be seen as a positive, but Karolina Pliskova has played little tennis over the last month and this will be the first match since losing at the Indian Wells tournament that was pushed back to October rather than it's usual March position in the calendar.

She clearly wants to do well here, but I am less enthused by the comments about the conditions at the WTA Finals with Karolina Pliskova admitting the ball is flying off the strings in the altitude of Guadalajara. Her game is all about being aggressive and hitting flat shots, but that is not ideal for the conditions and practice is going to be all important for her before taking the court for the opening match at the tournament.

At least Karolina Pliskova is facing an opponent she is familiar with and one she has dominated in the past- they have not met since January 2019, but Karolina Pliskova has won eight of nine hard court matches against Garbine Muguruza.

The Spaniard made a really strong start to the 2021 season and she came very close to beating Naomi Osaka at the Australian Open, but Garbine Muguruza has struggled for consistency since the Olympic Games. In that time, Garbine Muguruza has an 8-5 record on the hard courts, but she did win a title in Chicago before early losses in Indian Wells and Moscow.

Neither player has been lighting up the numbers and the serve is going to be very important for both players. Garbine Muguruza has at least the added motivation of playing the WTA Finals in Latin America where she is going to be well supported having Venezuelan connections and she has won a couple of titles in Mexico before, although those have not been played at tournaments that have to deal with the unfamiliar altitude the players will face in Guadalajara.

In their previous matches, Karolina Pliskova's serve has been the key to separating the two players and that remains the best part of her game. You do have to wonder if she can produce her best in the current conditions, but I think it will also affect the Garbine Muguruza game and the familiarity with what she will face should stand Karolina Pliskova in good stead.

I expect plenty of mistakes out of the racquet of both players, but the Czech player has shown she can deal with what Garbine Muguruza brings to the court and I think she can get off to a winning start in this Group at the WTA Finals.

MY PICKS: Anett Kontaveit - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

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